Bertz

I suspect the team is mostly done from here. Them being a hair under the LT doesn't feel like an accident. I'd assume the plan is to be basically right at the line entering the season and let the results in July decide if they're comfortable going over by more than a hair or whether they try and drop back down. They do have 2 more 40 man spots so they're definitely not done done. I could see a trade or two to clean up the back of the roster. Maybe move Rea to save a bit of cash for instance?

This is hilarious IMO probably says Tom didn't want Jed deferring a bunch of money while his seat was warm. They deferred a bunch of Heyward's contract long before that was en vogue so i was always skeptical it was a "never" sort of thing.

For the bench I suspect it starts off with fairly strict platoons. Alcantara backs PCA in CF, Austin backs Busch at 1B, and Shaw backs Mo at DH (via Bregman, Shaw obviously in the field). Except for Austin all of these guys are hopefully here for the long term, so I think you can let guys organically grow into more time. Happ's not a liability against lefties but certainly isn't an asset, so I think there's some playing time to find there. I think there's some opportunity to get Mo a little time behind the plate too. And of course injuries will occur.

Kevin Alcantara has one minor league option left. There are some niche rules that allow players to earn an extra minor league option. I know some of them are related to injury, but there are others. So the details go over my head but Arizona Phil (who I don't love but is GREAT at this sort of roster management minutae) confirmed Alcantara has one more option left for this year. I would still like to see Alcantara on the bench right from Opening Day, but the team does have flexibility available to them.

I think this is all right, I'll also say 2 helps feed into 1. No one can cheat death but if you're going to hitch your wagon to a guy someone who is exceptionally smart and exceptionally driven is more likely to hold onto their production for as long as their body possibly allows.

Yeah there tend to be unsaid assumptions around inflation included. Here an older one from before long term projections were so ubiquitous and they just did the "lop off half a WAR per year" move but otherwise has it laid out nicely. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/linear-dollars-per-win-again/ Over the last 15 years this approach hasn't really changed much, mainly the inputs have gotten better.

Pete Alonso just got 155 million for 10.6 projected WAR https://blogs.fangraphs.com/peter-out-orioles-swipe-alonso-from-mets/ Kyle Schwarber got 150 million for 5.8 projected WAR https://blogs.fangraphs.com/old-blood-phillies-re-sign-kyle-schwarber/ Either way it would be silly to do your "this year's projected WAR divided by salary" thing since that completely ignores the impacts of different ages and contract lengths. No one has a study showing why that's not how it works because it's such a silly premise no one has bothered to refute it. Just reflexively hating everything doesn't automatically make you smart. Stuff like this shows us why you talk a lot of horsefeathers but never actually bring ideas to the table.

I suspect there's a little bit of a manual bump for makeup, a little bit of pricing in not having to give up the draft pick, and a little bit of bidding more aggressively to prevent a situation like last year where theyre left holding the bag from happening again.

Man his team is gonna win a lot of games. It doesn't have an ace or a cleanup hitter who's an Avengers level threat like Ohtani or Judge or Skubal, but god damn it's loaded with good players and even the very back end of the roster is quality situational guys.

They might do Hoerner as a "second leadoff man" type of move? But otherwise he seems like the clear choice unless the catchers backslide.

FWIW I assume the lineup against RHP is something like this? Busch / Bregman / Happ Suzuki / Mo / Hoerner PCA / Kelly / Swanson

Shaw's fast enough he'd probably be at minimum a solid CF

A few initial thoughts: 1. Glad they kept the term reasonable. Was hoping for 4, especially at this healthy of an AAV, but 5 years isn't a back breaker 2. Wowza that is a healthy AAV 3. This puts the team a smidge over the LT. They're obviously not going to cruise past it, but in the spirit of in for a penny in for a pound you wonder if there's another move left. Another reliever maybe?

Image courtesy of © Brian Fluharty-Imagn Imagesan F The Chicago Cubs and third baseman Alex Bregman have agreed to a five year, $175-million deal, sources confirmed to North Side Baseball. Bregman, who will turn 32 in March, gets the largest AAV in Cubs history, at $35 million. The deal spares the team from having to spread money out into Bregman's late 30s and early 40s, though it almost guarantees that they will surpass the competitive-balance tax threshold for 2026—and perhaps years to come. In exchange for that, the Cubs get a player who fits their offensive philosophy perfectly. Bregman makes exceptionally good swing decisions and has run superb contact rates almost throughout his career. He lacks high-end bat speed, but creates power by excelling at pulling the ball in the air. He also plays a sturdy third base, and his arrival carries interesting implications for Matt Shaw and Nico Hoerner. Things were very different for Bregman this year, untethered from the qualifying offer but one year older and with a platform season in which he hit brilliantly early, got hurt, then struggled at times in the second half. Instead of being open to flexible structures and locking in on deals that offered him quick paths back to free agency, Bregman and agent Scott Boras sought a lucrative long-term deal. The Red Sox, who wooed Bregman with a deferral structure and multiple opt-outs last winter, were willing to go longer than the Cubs in terms of years, but refused to pay the high AAV the Cubs offered. Once he landed Edward Cabrera in a trade earlier this week, Hoyer got permission from ownership to exceed the CBT threshold in order to sign either Bregman or Bo Bichette, a source familiar with the team's plans said. That allowed Chicago to scale up its offer to Bregman, and helped them land the player they hoped would be the capstone to their offseason last year. In 10 big-league seasons, Bregman has had an on-base percentage under .350 just twice: in 2016 and in 2024. After being in the Astros organization for nearly a decade, he signed with the Red Sox in February and batted .273/.360/.462 in 495 plate appearances. That marked his highest slugging average since 2019, and with the deep well at Wrigley Field replacing the Green Monster in left field for his home games this year, don't expect him to slug as much for the Cubs. However, he adds a much-needed right-handed threat to their lineup, and will spend lots of time hitting between Michael Busch and Ian Happ or Moisés Ballesteros, giving the Cubs terrific lineup depth and balance. With Bregman locked up (and locked in, with a full no-trade clause, a source said), the team's infield is in for a shakeup. Dansby Swanson will be the shortstop for at least another year or two, but Matt Shaw has been displaced from the lineup. That could be a temporary change, with Nico Hoerner a free agent after 2026, but it could also prove to be permanent. Bregman is likely to stay at third base. Shaw could slide to second if Hoerner is traded, but the team could also plan to rotate him in as a backup at both second and third (with Hoerner sometimes spelling Swanson at shortstop) and/or to use Bregman as the designated hitter on a semi-regular basis, especially against left-handed pitchers. The ramifications of the deal will spread out and become clearer in the weeks ahead. For now, what we can say for sure is that the Cubs are serious about challenging the Brewers in the NL Central—and in 2026, they might just overtake them. View full article

Matt Shaw last year in total played at a 1st division starter level, and generally improved as the season went on. He absolutely warrants a full time job at 3B. However the team is looking at 3B, and I think they're right to, for two reasons: 1. The org is super thin on infielders 2. 3B is/was the best place to add a RHH bat to round out the lineup #1 is a biggy on a couple fronts. There's injury depth, there's Nico Hoerner succession planning, there's a desire to not block a bunch of prospects if you're shelling out 9 figures. #2 is mostly about the market (Bregman, Bichette, etc.) but also partially a nod to the versatility afforded by Shaw and Nico.

I'd be *shocked* if Boston is offering anything close to 6/170 to Bregman, at least in real money. If we deflate that # to the same degree as their contract last year you come in around 6/120-130, that's probably a good bit more reasonable.

I think it's increasingly clear the team views Bregman as an 80 grade soft skills guy. I think that's the explanation for why they're so laser focused on him compared to the other comparable options.

I suspect we're really close to Bregman signing

Steele and Assad pretty close to estimates, Cabrera got a nice little bump likely as a welcome gift/goodwill gesture.

Assad getting a team option is....interesting. I feel like you usually only see multi-year arb deals with stars, where the team either wants to futz with the LT or at least just lock in some cost certainty. Assad was projected for $1.9M...short of like a Cy Young season he probably wouldn't crack $5M next year. I think this is a sign he's on the trade block.

Jim: So what's your strategy for this race? Pam: Well I'm gonna start fast. Jim: Mm-hmm. Pam: Then I'm gonna run fast in the middle. Jim: What? Pam: Then I'm gonna end fast. Jim: Why won't more people do that? [laughs] Pam: Cause they're just stupid.

The Phillies' outfield is probably the worst position group on any good team. There are not enough "Sure, Jan" gifs in the world for how skeptical I am of this report they're suddenly hot after Bichette.

I don't think it'd be super far off of Tucker. I think pitcher attrition scariness largely counterbalances the fact that Skubal's a little better.

Bellinger feels to me like a "yeah it can work now" move than any sort of plan A or frankly even a plan B. Like it's certainly better than sitting on the money, and it does help with Happ and Seiya hitting FA next winter. But in my mind a big benefit to specifically using Caissie to acquire Cabrera was clearing up the OF/DH mix. Bellinger not only undoes that but makes it worse.