Bertz

He wasn't a big money guy, right? Still a 19 year old catcher hitting the way he has so far across Mesa and Myetle has to get your antenna up.

I would do terrible things for Jose Escobar's Statcast data. I've gotta know how much of this is real and how much is simply BABIP

Eh, I think Miller park just became more pitcher friendly the last year+. They both hit and gave up a ton of dongs prior to lasy year, now they do neither. - From 21-24 Milwaukee was 6th best in HR/FB as an offense (12.9%), 5th worst as a pitching staff (13.0%) - The last 1.5 seasons they're 3rd best as a pitching staff (10.3%) and 10th worst as an offense (10.9%) No joke at all did something happen when it turned from Miller Park to AmFam field?

Misiorowski gave up two more dongs today, now has a (slightly) worse than average HR/FB rate. Even the hardest throwing SP in history can't magically "miss the barrel". I know everyone wants it to be a skill, it totally doesn't make sense that it's not, but all the evidence says it's random.

While he's not my top choice, one of the fun things to think about with Rose is there's an implication that the team thinks he can *really* hit. They haven't taken someone on the wrong half of the defensive spectrum in the first round since at least Happ, probably Schwarber. And they've built up a pretty deserved level of benefit of the doubt on college bats.

Orioles are pretty ass against LHP. Just don't let Taylor Ward get you.

Yeah I'm guessing with Beck they're heing gentle with him while he stretches out. He's also been pitching on 6 days rest (every Saturday) instead of 5. I wonder if they let him beat up on AA through the end of the month and build up some innings, and then move him to Iowa and start shortening him back up in preparation for a potential September callup. He's 26 and Rule 5 eligible so there's no roster-management considerations with him.

Sahadev had an article in the Athletic this AM with a lot of similar quotes from Kangrovitz. Combine this with all the mock drafts having them go college bat in the 1st, you wonder if the plan is to take a bat in the first to bank some wins/establish a floor and then go hog-horsefeathering wild on pitching after.

Oof

Hunter Brown, assuming his medicals look clean. One of the Mariners' guys. Gavin Williams. Payton Tolle probably? Max Meyer's the right type of talent, but he makes Cade Horton look like Tom Glavine. I don't expect it to happen.

The big question IMO is to consider is where do we have depth you'd want to deal from? - Infielders, obviously. We're 3.5 seasons from an infield spot opening up. That doesn't mean you absolutely clean house on minor league infielders, but it does means that anyone you keep needs to be a complement to the current group or have the juice in the bat to survive a move to the grass - RHH bats in the upper levels seem ripe, both because of the volume and because of the knock on effects of the infield being locked down as mentioned above. There's probably not a world where all three of Shaw/Alcantara/Rojas all coexist on the same roster for instance, and you can easily see quality bench outcomes from some of the other second tier guys like Long, Triantos, and Trice - Catcher attrition is a horsefeathers and none of them are making any money yet, so there's no urgency, but the org has some high quality catcher depth. Especially if they intend to re-sign Kelly (which, pending the particulars, I'd be very into) - Outfielders, man the org is loaded with outfielders. Upper levels, lower levels, lefties, righties, speed/contact types and power/whiff types. Like Brett Bateman is an age appropriate CFer at AAA with a 118 wRC+ and he doesn't get talked about at all outside of this insular community of prospect sickos. Ditto Carter Trice Take it all together, and it feels like Rojas, Alcantara, and Kepley are probably the most clear pieces of trade bait. Whoever the org views as the lesser of Mo/Ayers is pretty high up there too. They all (presumably) have good value, but a combo of their skillset, their proximity, and the depth at their positions make them ideal pieces to dangle in trade. I'd probably try and use Kepley/Alcantara to try and snag a high-end rental (Gray?), Rojas/Kepley/Alcantara to try and snag someone with team control (Detmers?), and break out the Mo/Rojas/Kepley big guns if some blockbuster opportunity presented itself. For smaller trades, relievers and such, I think you lead with trying to clear out the depth at Iowa. Triantos, Long, has Murray rebuilt his value, etc. I think, aside from Bateman (he might be an ideal compliment for Shaw/Alcantara) a lot of these guys have had their most reasonable paths to playing time in Chicago cut off.

Has the Cubs taking Zion Rose, also thought this was interesting, explanation for why he has a couple college SPs not going in the first

Do we know what Koen Moreno is throwing these days? It feels like we can probably close the book on him, and the 2020 draft class with him. But I feel like the numbers are just solid enough that if you gave me a compelling case from a scouting standpoint I'd hold onto some hope for a relief outcome a la Schlaffer/Kipp/Dean.

Aaron Bummer sitting 90 and Liam Hendriks sitting 92

Yeah Statcast has been misclassifying some of his cutters as 4 seamers but even still he's wearing down a lot through the course of the game. But let him work at the top of hia velo range, drop the cutter/sinker usage (maybe kill the cutter entirely?) and I think he'll reallt carve hitters up.

14 Whiffs for Kipp. Dude might be really fun in relief

More walks than you'd like but more or less Jace Beck is doing it again

Anyone else following this Matt Miller saga? It's kind of insane?

MiLB has Brody McCollough starting for Myrtle, so that's fun

Wow I did not expect him to be playing OF this early. Hell yeah

Yeah there's a 0.0% chance this team takes a HS pitcher in the first. I could see the team taking a HS pitcher with a later pick and giving him first round money (they did that with Ferris) but no chance they take one straight up.

Pallante always feels on the verge of a breakout and then we face him and spike his ERA by half a run. Let's keep that trend going. Cards bullpen is shredded too, so that should hopefully pay dividends this weekend.

I know the contact numbers are not where they need to be but that is a wowza number from a 19 year old

On a per pitch / per batter / per inning basis modern pitchers are much much much much much much much much better than what they were before all this pitch design stuff started getting figured out. The average 4S fastball this year is 94.6 MPH. In 2008(first year of reliable pitch tracking) the average fastball was almost two full MPH slower at 91.8. Hell this year in the Florida State League (Low A) the average four seam fastball is 93.4 MPH. It's not just velo either! Slider spin has risen from 2102 rpms in 2015 to 2435 this year. So how do you reverse this trend? It's going to take some sweeping systemic changes, and IMO I've yet to hear any that address everything. 1. You have to incentivize teams to prioritize length. This actually feels pretty doable. 11 man staffs, the double hook, etc. There are some levers to pull to help on this front, though no silver bullet IMO 2. You have to discourage roster churn on the team side. This feels tougher. There are things you can do (fewer annual options per player, longer IL minimums), but if you go too far the switch quickly flips to just making the problem worse. You potentially encourage teams to run guys' arms through the meat grinder (fewer precautionary IL stints). And does less minor league roster flexibility just lead to fewer options but way more guys getting DFAd? 3. You have to convince players it's not worth it to train for stuff. This feels, frankly, impossible? Unless you have unilateral disarmament there are always going to be guys pursuing this route and ruining the value proposition of training for durability. Pitcher injuries didn't magically get invented 10 years ago, they just went into overdrive. If you train for durability you're not automatically turning into Maddux. Is making it 10% less likely you blow out your arm but 20% more likely you stall out at AAA a good trade? Not really. So how are we supposed to convince every pitcher in pro and college baseball to pursue it?