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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
  2. Bertz
    Wow I knew having good K/BB was a good harbinger for aging gracefully but holy hell. I listened to Sharma and Mooney's podcast from over the weekend and Sharma said that their internal model absolutely adores him. It was funny the talk track was something about how much they like him off the field, something like "And sure their model loves him but as a person..." and I very much wanted to hear more about what the model thought.
  3. Bertz
    So the way I took AJ's story was this - Sox made an offer early in the offseason - Boras goes to the Red Sox and says "we have a better offer than that" - Red Sox say "Sure, Jan" - Boras goes back to the Red Sox like "no really we have a better offer than that" - Red Sox up their offer to it's final form ($165 with crazy deferrals) - Boras says that's not quite enough - Red Sox scoff and say "fine then take it" and then he does So like I'm wondering if the Cubs have had their offer out there for weeks (a month?) or if there's been multiple rounds of offers and the Cubs were just consistently ahead of the Sox. Doesn't matter a ton either way, but would speak to Jed's aggressiveness. Like if 5/$175 has just been hanging out there since like the winter meetings that'd be wild.
  4. Bertz
    https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/s/0odU2gzv51 Am I crazy or does this imply that the Cubs had their offer out to Bregman for several weeks?
  5. Bertz
    The Mad Men "that's what the money is for" meme but "that's what the Bregman's are for." Part of the incentive for adding guys like Bregman should be so that you can give the kids breathing room without worrying that those early season struggles will be the difference between playing in October or sitting at home.
  6. Bertz
  7. Bertz
    How Nico can be expected to age is so fascinating to me. On the one hand I believe damn near every bit of research says that athletic, well rounded, strong contact bats tend to be the best bets for aging. Strikeouts and dongs being "old player skills" is one of those things where conventional wisdom ended up being backed up by the math. On the other hand Nico's basically just an average hitter even right now in his prime. It's easy to imagine for instance Alex Bregman's bat aging gracefully selling out for power a bit more and trading some K-rate for walks and power. With like 30 grade power is that an avenue even open to a guy like Nico? I suspect not. I suspect that Nico will be a useful player well into his 30's, but will pretty abruptly stop being a guy worth big money to as soon as he loses a step. I'm generally against extending Hoerner, particularly post Bregman. In fact reconciling the Nico situation is a big part of why I got on board with Bregman after being cold on the idea in October/November. I hope Nico gets overpaid by a west coast team like the Giants next winter and gets to hang out close to home.
  8. Bertz
    I don't want to talk crap about a guy just because our fans are annoying, but woof those Cam Smith numbers
  9. Bertz
    Oh another fun thing I found about Jonny Long. Via Steamer, the Cubs have 7 guys who project to be above average hitters against both righties and lefties: Bregman Suzuki Happ Hoerner Shaw Austin Long The bar is higher for a RHH 1B, but it's pretty easy to imagine Long ultimately being the best hitter out of last year's Iowa quartet.
  10. Bertz
    Yeah Long is great, on a lesser team he'd have been up last July or August. Good to know he's a good guy too. I think purely by virtue of roster management (he's not on the 40 man, and he's been at Iowa for "only" a year as compared to Mo and Alcantara) he's probably gonna spend a lot of 2026 at Iowa and come up to MLB for short stints. I view him as the guy who comes up whenever there's an injury to a corner bat. One thing I'd like to see too is a lot more time at positions besides 1B. As you said the bat is ready, so let's make it so that he's a potential fill in for any of Happ/Suzuki/Mo/Busch. And if he's even decent as an OF he's got a pretty easy line to a starting spot heading into 2027.
  11. Bertz
    Yeah looking at the list of available FAs I'm thinking Gallen, Bader, and Seranthony Dominguez? And even Bader hasn't really mashed lefties as much as he's gotten older so that one's a bit iffy.
  12. Bertz
    Even setting aside finances his feels like something the team should consider. The lineup has this really nice blend of promising youth and veteran production that does a fantastic job of balancing 2026 and beyond. The pitching staff very much does not. Sure you can moreso count on injury opening up playing time on that side of the ball, but even so it feels like a bad idea to have Wicks/Brown/Wiggins so far down the depth chart. Especially since it's not a super tough argument to make that they're likely better than Jamo outright. Maybe wait until mid March to make sure the baseball gods didn't decide to go on a Mesa UCL shredding spree? Has the bonus of maybe being able to find a motivated buyer after injuries strike another camp.
  13. Bertz
    Something to keep in mind with adding Bregman to an already full lineup. The level of health the Cubs got on the position player side last year was extremely fortunate. And of course health aside if the bench had been less terrible each of those guys probably sits an extra 5-10 games organically.
  14. Bertz
    Cubs now have 11 hitters that Steamer projects to at least a 100 wRC+. Swanson (98) and Amaya (96) are close and above average for their positions. The Cubs also have 10 hitters projected above 100 specifically vs. left handed pitchers as well as 10 vs. right handed pitchers, so there's a strong balance as well.
  15. Bertz
    Wasn't Beede one of Tom's guys??
  16. Bertz
    There's a bit of wiggle room left depending on where exactly the last few QO guys sign, but these look like the Cubs' day 1 picks next year #23 (1st round) #62 (2nd round) #75 (Tucker comp pick) #97 (3rd rounder)
  17. Bertz
    I suspect the team is mostly done from here. Them being a hair under the LT doesn't feel like an accident. I'd assume the plan is to be basically right at the line entering the season and let the results in July decide if they're comfortable going over by more than a hair or whether they try and drop back down. They do have 2 more 40 man spots so they're definitely not done done. I could see a trade or two to clean up the back of the roster. Maybe move Rea to save a bit of cash for instance?
  18. Bertz
    This is hilarious IMO probably says Tom didn't want Jed deferring a bunch of money while his seat was warm. They deferred a bunch of Heyward's contract long before that was en vogue so i was always skeptical it was a "never" sort of thing.
  19. Bertz
    For the bench I suspect it starts off with fairly strict platoons. Alcantara backs PCA in CF, Austin backs Busch at 1B, and Shaw backs Mo at DH (via Bregman, Shaw obviously in the field). Except for Austin all of these guys are hopefully here for the long term, so I think you can let guys organically grow into more time. Happ's not a liability against lefties but certainly isn't an asset, so I think there's some playing time to find there. I think there's some opportunity to get Mo a little time behind the plate too. And of course injuries will occur.
  20. Bertz
    Kevin Alcantara has one minor league option left. There are some niche rules that allow players to earn an extra minor league option. I know some of them are related to injury, but there are others. So the details go over my head but Arizona Phil (who I don't love but is GREAT at this sort of roster management minutae) confirmed Alcantara has one more option left for this year. I would still like to see Alcantara on the bench right from Opening Day, but the team does have flexibility available to them.
  21. Bertz
    I think this is all right, I'll also say 2 helps feed into 1. No one can cheat death but if you're going to hitch your wagon to a guy someone who is exceptionally smart and exceptionally driven is more likely to hold onto their production for as long as their body possibly allows.
  22. Bertz
    Yeah there tend to be unsaid assumptions around inflation included. Here an older one from before long term projections were so ubiquitous and they just did the "lop off half a WAR per year" move but otherwise has it laid out nicely. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/linear-dollars-per-win-again/ Over the last 15 years this approach hasn't really changed much, mainly the inputs have gotten better.
  23. Bertz
    Pete Alonso just got 155 million for 10.6 projected WAR https://blogs.fangraphs.com/peter-out-orioles-swipe-alonso-from-mets/ Kyle Schwarber got 150 million for 5.8 projected WAR https://blogs.fangraphs.com/old-blood-phillies-re-sign-kyle-schwarber/ Either way it would be silly to do your "this year's projected WAR divided by salary" thing since that completely ignores the impacts of different ages and contract lengths. No one has a study showing why that's not how it works because it's such a silly premise no one has bothered to refute it. Just reflexively hating everything doesn't automatically make you smart. Stuff like this shows us why you talk a lot of horsefeathers but never actually bring ideas to the table.
  24. Bertz
  25. Bertz
    I suspect there's a little bit of a manual bump for makeup, a little bit of pricing in not having to give up the draft pick, and a little bit of bidding more aggressively to prevent a situation like last year where theyre left holding the bag from happening again.
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