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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    This is surprisingly mortal, especially when you account for the fact that FG's depth chart tend to be very generous with pitcher playing time. Andrew Friedman has mentioned getting younger this offseason, I'm curious if that means taking a step back this year and keeping lanes open for prospects to fill in before this turns into a late era Dombrowski roster, or if it the pedal stays firmly on the metal and they simply add a young FA like Bichette.
  2. Bertz
    I don't love the idea of spending resources on an outfielder. I was a big proponent of the Cabrera trade both for liking Cabrera and thinking Caissie was superfluous on this roster. Then again I don't like a lot about trading Hoerner so add it to the pile I guess.
  3. Bertz
    So uh, this is probably gonna be the worst Cardinals team in the modern era? Like they've gotta be in real danger of losing 100 games by the time this purge is complete. Like next year is gonna be Wynn and Nootbar and Liberatore and a lot of yuck.
  4. Bertz
    Things I'd be looking for in a Nico trade: - An immediate plug and play high leverage reliever - High impact starting pitching. Either one guy relatively close to MLB ready like Jaxon Wiggins is right now, or two guys a little further away like Jaxon Wiggins was at this time last year - A LHH or switch hitting middle infielder So like the Mariners can do this. Matt Brash, Jurrangel Cintje, and Cole Young? Garret Whitlock, Marcelo Mayer, and Connelly Early or Payton Tolle from the Red Sox fits too. I'm struggling to see anyone else? Like I want to be BOWLED OVER.
  5. Bertz
    And that would make a lot of sense. Boston getting Bichette and SF getting Donovan seems like the logical way for this game of musical chairs to end. And like even if we are dealing Hoerner, I kind of hate the Giants as a trade partner. Bryce Eldridge is awesome and probably right from a value standpoint, but adding him a week after moving Caissie would be silly. They have a lot of quality young pitching, but it's all guys in the Jordan Wicks/Ben Brown zone types as opposed to having one monster we could latch onto. Nate Furman is a fun spreadsheet darling? Ryan Walker would be a nice cost controlled setup man? Like if we were rebuilding they could easily do a nice 4 for 1 deal. But the model for moving Hoerner should be the Tucker trade, something where the other team overpays AND they do so with stuff that neatly fits into your roster straight away. I don't see that coming from the Giants.
  6. Bertz
    Ughhhhh I don't like this, this is the type of language, particularly from a guy like Passan, is what you see when something is getting pretty close
  7. Bertz
  8. Bertz
    Wow I knew having good K/BB was a good harbinger for aging gracefully but holy hell. I listened to Sharma and Mooney's podcast from over the weekend and Sharma said that their internal model absolutely adores him. It was funny the talk track was something about how much they like him off the field, something like "And sure their model loves him but as a person..." and I very much wanted to hear more about what the model thought.
  9. Bertz
    So the way I took AJ's story was this - Sox made an offer early in the offseason - Boras goes to the Red Sox and says "we have a better offer than that" - Red Sox say "Sure, Jan" - Boras goes back to the Red Sox like "no really we have a better offer than that" - Red Sox up their offer to it's final form ($165 with crazy deferrals) - Boras says that's not quite enough - Red Sox scoff and say "fine then take it" and then he does So like I'm wondering if the Cubs have had their offer out there for weeks (a month?) or if there's been multiple rounds of offers and the Cubs were just consistently ahead of the Sox. Doesn't matter a ton either way, but would speak to Jed's aggressiveness. Like if 5/$175 has just been hanging out there since like the winter meetings that'd be wild.
  10. Bertz
    https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/s/0odU2gzv51 Am I crazy or does this imply that the Cubs had their offer out to Bregman for several weeks?
  11. Bertz
    The Mad Men "that's what the money is for" meme but "that's what the Bregman's are for." Part of the incentive for adding guys like Bregman should be so that you can give the kids breathing room without worrying that those early season struggles will be the difference between playing in October or sitting at home.
  12. Bertz
  13. Bertz
    How Nico can be expected to age is so fascinating to me. On the one hand I believe damn near every bit of research says that athletic, well rounded, strong contact bats tend to be the best bets for aging. Strikeouts and dongs being "old player skills" is one of those things where conventional wisdom ended up being backed up by the math. On the other hand Nico's basically just an average hitter even right now in his prime. It's easy to imagine for instance Alex Bregman's bat aging gracefully selling out for power a bit more and trading some K-rate for walks and power. With like 30 grade power is that an avenue even open to a guy like Nico? I suspect not. I suspect that Nico will be a useful player well into his 30's, but will pretty abruptly stop being a guy worth big money to as soon as he loses a step. I'm generally against extending Hoerner, particularly post Bregman. In fact reconciling the Nico situation is a big part of why I got on board with Bregman after being cold on the idea in October/November. I hope Nico gets overpaid by a west coast team like the Giants next winter and gets to hang out close to home.
  14. Bertz
    I don't want to talk crap about a guy just because our fans are annoying, but woof those Cam Smith numbers
  15. Bertz
    Oh another fun thing I found about Jonny Long. Via Steamer, the Cubs have 7 guys who project to be above average hitters against both righties and lefties: Bregman Suzuki Happ Hoerner Shaw Austin Long The bar is higher for a RHH 1B, but it's pretty easy to imagine Long ultimately being the best hitter out of last year's Iowa quartet.
  16. Bertz
    Yeah Long is great, on a lesser team he'd have been up last July or August. Good to know he's a good guy too. I think purely by virtue of roster management (he's not on the 40 man, and he's been at Iowa for "only" a year as compared to Mo and Alcantara) he's probably gonna spend a lot of 2026 at Iowa and come up to MLB for short stints. I view him as the guy who comes up whenever there's an injury to a corner bat. One thing I'd like to see too is a lot more time at positions besides 1B. As you said the bat is ready, so let's make it so that he's a potential fill in for any of Happ/Suzuki/Mo/Busch. And if he's even decent as an OF he's got a pretty easy line to a starting spot heading into 2027.
  17. Bertz
    Yeah looking at the list of available FAs I'm thinking Gallen, Bader, and Seranthony Dominguez? And even Bader hasn't really mashed lefties as much as he's gotten older so that one's a bit iffy.
  18. Bertz
    Even setting aside finances his feels like something the team should consider. The lineup has this really nice blend of promising youth and veteran production that does a fantastic job of balancing 2026 and beyond. The pitching staff very much does not. Sure you can moreso count on injury opening up playing time on that side of the ball, but even so it feels like a bad idea to have Wicks/Brown/Wiggins so far down the depth chart. Especially since it's not a super tough argument to make that they're likely better than Jamo outright. Maybe wait until mid March to make sure the baseball gods didn't decide to go on a Mesa UCL shredding spree? Has the bonus of maybe being able to find a motivated buyer after injuries strike another camp.
  19. Bertz
    Something to keep in mind with adding Bregman to an already full lineup. The level of health the Cubs got on the position player side last year was extremely fortunate. And of course health aside if the bench had been less terrible each of those guys probably sits an extra 5-10 games organically.
  20. Bertz
    Cubs now have 11 hitters that Steamer projects to at least a 100 wRC+. Swanson (98) and Amaya (96) are close and above average for their positions. The Cubs also have 10 hitters projected above 100 specifically vs. left handed pitchers as well as 10 vs. right handed pitchers, so there's a strong balance as well.
  21. Bertz
    Wasn't Beede one of Tom's guys??
  22. Bertz
    There's a bit of wiggle room left depending on where exactly the last few QO guys sign, but these look like the Cubs' day 1 picks next year #23 (1st round) #62 (2nd round) #75 (Tucker comp pick) #97 (3rd rounder)
  23. Bertz
    I suspect the team is mostly done from here. Them being a hair under the LT doesn't feel like an accident. I'd assume the plan is to be basically right at the line entering the season and let the results in July decide if they're comfortable going over by more than a hair or whether they try and drop back down. They do have 2 more 40 man spots so they're definitely not done done. I could see a trade or two to clean up the back of the roster. Maybe move Rea to save a bit of cash for instance?
  24. Bertz
    This is hilarious IMO probably says Tom didn't want Jed deferring a bunch of money while his seat was warm. They deferred a bunch of Heyward's contract long before that was en vogue so i was always skeptical it was a "never" sort of thing.
  25. Bertz
    For the bench I suspect it starts off with fairly strict platoons. Alcantara backs PCA in CF, Austin backs Busch at 1B, and Shaw backs Mo at DH (via Bregman, Shaw obviously in the field). Except for Austin all of these guys are hopefully here for the long term, so I think you can let guys organically grow into more time. Happ's not a liability against lefties but certainly isn't an asset, so I think there's some playing time to find there. I think there's some opportunity to get Mo a little time behind the plate too. And of course injuries will occur.
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