Bertz

A stretch but things are slow around here so I'll post it. This article is listed under the Cubs' section of the Athletic despite them not being mentioned at all. Re: Imai, this is all it says

Formal offers are I believe full on contracts. Or at least like a terms sheet. You see this distinction used a lot for rage bait. "The Mets didn't even make Pete Alonso a formal offer!" Well sure but they talked extensively and there was an understanding they'd be willing to go to $100M it just never got formalized because both sides understood it wasn't going to get the job done.

Can't vouch for this account but Greg Z retweeted it. Kinda sounds to me like the thing you do after you've requested best and finals from everybody.

Imai has to sign by Friday afternoon. Not just agree to terms but everything needs to be done by then. Contract, physical, all the administrative stuff that goes into a signing. As far as I can tell, no NPB player has taken their posting all the way down to the wire before, presumably because of the administrative work required even after an agreement. The latest I can find someone agreeing is Murakami last week, ~30 hours before his window closed. So let's say 24 hours is the absolute drop dead to get everything done that needs to be done? That means Imai HAS to agree to a deal by Thursday afternoon, and that's assuming the holiday doesn't necessitate additional buffer (probably a bad assumption). So sure Imai can drag this out through the holiday, but that feels like eyewash. What deal is going to come along Thursday morning that isn't there Tuesday morning? Feels like Boras calling pencils down today or tomorrow, get all that admin crap out of the way Tuesday early, fly home Tuesday night and enjoy New Years with the friends and family is the obvious way to play things. Like others have said the fact that it's even gone this far is a sign that he's probably not getting a massive deal. Yamamoto's posting window ended on January 4th and he was signed before Christmas. Murakami and Imanaga both agreed ~2 days before their deadline and their contracts were soft. My guess is he's looking at more like Kevin Gausman money (5/$110M) than Dylan Cease money.

I think Theo's "waves" metaphor is the best way to think about the farm currently. Because it's probably average all in all but saying it's average and then calling it a day does a terrible job of setting the right expectations. Broadly the 2026 club should have all the reinforcements it could ask for, but then there's a big gap hollowed out by trades before things pick back up again. Wave 1 - The MLB-adjacent guys This group is absolutely horsefeathering stellar. Mo, Caissie, and Alcantara divide the industry a bit, but each were top 50 prospects in multiple mid-season lists. Wiggins is a pretty consensus monster, and Jonny Long lacks some ceiling but is a quality player/prospect. That's 5 prospects who look like first division types, PLUS the guys who are in prospect limbo like Brown, Wicks, and Hodge provide some real talent as well. Wave 2 - The trending towards late '26 debuts On the flipside, this group is in terrible shape. Triantos and Ramirez look like quality bench players, and there's probably some middle relief and 5th starter outcomes in the Sanders/Kipp/etc. group, but this chunk if the farm is basically barren. If the entire farm looked like this it'd be the 30th ranked org in the league. It should be noted that this is where Hope, Ferris, and arguably Smith would have lived if they hadn't been traded Wave 3 - South Bend (and the youngest youngsters at Tenn) This is where the farm gets back to cooking. Tennessee's not in the best shape but with Rojas, Hernandez, and to a lesser extent Armas there's some fresh talent arriving and improving things from last year's second half. Then you have South Bend which has a phenomenal lineup. Just 1-9 legitimate prospects. The pitching is still not great at SB, but there's at least some arms and honestly even if there weren't with that lineup it's an affiliate you'd be happy with Wave 4 - The Youths This is going to be a real dice roll. The Cubs have a good number of IFA guys that are slated to open at Myrtle. It's a ton of talent, but the reports out of the ACL haven't been amazing to this point. I suspect we're in for another year like last year where this group gets it's collective ass handed to it in the 1st half but adjusts in the 2nd half and leaves us feeling good. Not an IFA but Josiah Hartshorn might be the most talented player in the org and is our best chance at an absolute monster Top 5 overall type prospect

I would suspect they leave one spot open for the non-roster guys to vie for, so the pen is likely done at least as far as guys getting guaranteed contracts. Although they did add Brasier last year and just let the inevitable ST injuries open up Keller's eventual spot, so maybe I'm wrong.

ZiPS projects him to a 3.04 ERA next year. This is basically the new Brandon Morrow. And unlike Joe I trust Counsell to not shred his arm in a meaningless June game against the Mets.

Yeah I like Cabrera a lot and Cabrera+Bregman is a whale of an offseason. But even beyond the usual extent that all pitchers are risky there's an elevated chance Cabrera's elbow pops next year. But hey we do currently have the depth to cover something like that.

Oh hell yeah! Harvey's high-risk health-wise but on a per inning basis basically as good as anyone who was available this winter besides Diaz and Williams. Paired with the floor raisers we already added this is exciting.

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Yeah they *can* add a SP with Cole and Rodon not being ready for OD, but they don't need one. Last I read is that they have enough cash for one move of consequence, and Cashman is just waiting out the market, with Bellinger as Plan A.

Great stuff here. tl;dr is more fastballs at the top of the zone and change out his sweeper for a more traditional slider

I think what we *can* say with confidence is that even if the Cubs aren't going hard in Imai (very possible!) their top SP target doesn't want to budge until there's market clarity.

This is not to clown on Mooney or to say these situations will end up exactly the same, but this is from four days before the Cubs and Imanaga hooked up for their deal. Also thought this was interesting from Eric Longenhagen's chat at Fangraphs last week I think we just have to accept that we're probably not going to know too much until right before this goes down.

Matt Trueblood, the head writer on this website

That's fairly in line with what Trueblood said on Friday. One signing of substance one trade of substance.

Pretty obvious opportunity for positive regression Interesting that he walked a ton of guys in '23 and '24. Because he throws plenty of strikes. Definitely feels like there's some low hanging fruit in terms of 2 strike approach or sequencing or something like that. Only question is if you can get more K's while keeping the soft contact or if it's an either/or thing. Also interesting to me that they're adding a guy whose best case scenario is Mark Leiter after already adding two traditional lefties.

Babe hold all my calls a new Eli Morgan just dropped Cromulent 7th inning guy, appears to be a legitimate soft contact artist. Curious if there are any pitch design changes to try and coax out more swing and miss or if he's just a matchup guy with that changeup.

On the one hand Kaplan's an idiot and hasn't shown to be consistently connected since Hendry left On the other hand the Athletic guys and Jesse Rogers have done some cold watering on this the past week too On the other hand this is basically the same thing that happened with Imanaga On the other hand trading for a SP is what makes the Bregman rumors easiest to reconcile On the other hand that doesn't explain anything happening with Gallen I suspect the Cubs want Imai but think he's worth much closer to $100M then $200M. I also suspect Boras is not getting what he wants because none of the big boys are hot after him so we're just gonna deal with this dumb back and forth horsefeathers for another week.

That seems a little surprising after Austin. But if the Cubs are higher on his 3B defense than the public facing scouts then of course it's a good fit.

Lovich is probably the most glaring example from the farm the last few years of guys who desperately missed the Northwest League. Unlike some of his peers at Myrtle Beach the season ended before he really got a chance to show he'd mastered the level. He had a strong showing in August but the K-rate was still elevated. The good news is he's plenty tooled up, and even if he spends the first half of the year repeating Low A he'll be on a healthy track for his age.

Yeah the Cubs at this point need some coverage at 3B, YMMV on whether he slots ahead or behind Shaw. And depending on how comfortable you are burying the kids you can add a RHH CFer or full time-ish OF/DH. But a pure platoon corner outfielder no longer makes much sense.

I don't know if those first two are true. I believe with Yamamoto the Yankees (and Mets?) were in there til the end. And Imanaga at the end had to pick between the Cubs and the Pirates, his market was much softer than anticipated coming into the winter. That doesn't mean Imai is going to be cheap. But Yamamoto there was a very public bidding war for and the other two guys were suspiciously quiet. And Imai's very much trending in the suspiciously quiet direction.

We're now at 3 in a row NPB imports getting very different contracts from what was expected going into the winter. Yamamoto blasted expectations out of the water, Imanaga came in a little soft, and Murakami faceplanted. Given how quiet it has been I wouldn't be surprised if you were right. Also it would be very on brand for how the discourse around this team always goes if the Cubs got their guy but a big chunk of the fans were still mad because they didn't pay enough for him.