Bertz

I suspect there's a little bit of a manual bump for makeup, a little bit of pricing in not having to give up the draft pick, and a little bit of bidding more aggressively to prevent a situation like last year where theyre left holding the bag from happening again.

Man his team is gonna win a lot of games. It doesn't have an ace or a cleanup hitter who's an Avengers level threat like Ohtani or Judge or Skubal, but god damn it's loaded with good players and even the very back end of the roster is quality situational guys.

They might do Hoerner as a "second leadoff man" type of move? But otherwise he seems like the clear choice unless the catchers backslide.

FWIW I assume the lineup against RHP is something like this? Busch / Bregman / Happ Suzuki / Mo / Hoerner PCA / Kelly / Swanson

Shaw's fast enough he'd probably be at minimum a solid CF

A few initial thoughts: 1. Glad they kept the term reasonable. Was hoping for 4, especially at this healthy of an AAV, but 5 years isn't a back breaker 2. Wowza that is a healthy AAV 3. This puts the team a smidge over the LT. They're obviously not going to cruise past it, but in the spirit of in for a penny in for a pound you wonder if there's another move left. Another reliever maybe?

Image courtesy of © Brian Fluharty-Imagn Imagesan F The Chicago Cubs and third baseman Alex Bregman have agreed to a five year, $175-million deal, sources confirmed to North Side Baseball. Bregman, who will turn 32 in March, gets the largest AAV in Cubs history, at $35 million. The deal spares the team from having to spread money out into Bregman's late 30s and early 40s, though it almost guarantees that they will surpass the competitive-balance tax threshold for 2026—and perhaps years to come. In exchange for that, the Cubs get a player who fits their offensive philosophy perfectly. Bregman makes exceptionally good swing decisions and has run superb contact rates almost throughout his career. He lacks high-end bat speed, but creates power by excelling at pulling the ball in the air. He also plays a sturdy third base, and his arrival carries interesting implications for Matt Shaw and Nico Hoerner. Things were very different for Bregman this year, untethered from the qualifying offer but one year older and with a platform season in which he hit brilliantly early, got hurt, then struggled at times in the second half. Instead of being open to flexible structures and locking in on deals that offered him quick paths back to free agency, Bregman and agent Scott Boras sought a lucrative long-term deal. The Red Sox, who wooed Bregman with a deferral structure and multiple opt-outs last winter, were willing to go longer than the Cubs in terms of years, but refused to pay the high AAV the Cubs offered. Once he landed Edward Cabrera in a trade earlier this week, Hoyer got permission from ownership to exceed the CBT threshold in order to sign either Bregman or Bo Bichette, a source familiar with the team's plans said. That allowed Chicago to scale up its offer to Bregman, and helped them land the player they hoped would be the capstone to their offseason last year. In 10 big-league seasons, Bregman has had an on-base percentage under .350 just twice: in 2016 and in 2024. After being in the Astros organization for nearly a decade, he signed with the Red Sox in February and batted .273/.360/.462 in 495 plate appearances. That marked his highest slugging average since 2019, and with the deep well at Wrigley Field replacing the Green Monster in left field for his home games this year, don't expect him to slug as much for the Cubs. However, he adds a much-needed right-handed threat to their lineup, and will spend lots of time hitting between Michael Busch and Ian Happ or Moisés Ballesteros, giving the Cubs terrific lineup depth and balance. With Bregman locked up (and locked in, with a full no-trade clause, a source said), the team's infield is in for a shakeup. Dansby Swanson will be the shortstop for at least another year or two, but Matt Shaw has been displaced from the lineup. That could be a temporary change, with Nico Hoerner a free agent after 2026, but it could also prove to be permanent. Bregman is likely to stay at third base. Shaw could slide to second if Hoerner is traded, but the team could also plan to rotate him in as a backup at both second and third (with Hoerner sometimes spelling Swanson at shortstop) and/or to use Bregman as the designated hitter on a semi-regular basis, especially against left-handed pitchers. The ramifications of the deal will spread out and become clearer in the weeks ahead. For now, what we can say for sure is that the Cubs are serious about challenging the Brewers in the NL Central—and in 2026, they might just overtake them. View full article

Matt Shaw last year in total played at a 1st division starter level, and generally improved as the season went on. He absolutely warrants a full time job at 3B. However the team is looking at 3B, and I think they're right to, for two reasons: 1. The org is super thin on infielders 2. 3B is/was the best place to add a RHH bat to round out the lineup #1 is a biggy on a couple fronts. There's injury depth, there's Nico Hoerner succession planning, there's a desire to not block a bunch of prospects if you're shelling out 9 figures. #2 is mostly about the market (Bregman, Bichette, etc.) but also partially a nod to the versatility afforded by Shaw and Nico.

I'd be *shocked* if Boston is offering anything close to 6/170 to Bregman, at least in real money. If we deflate that # to the same degree as their contract last year you come in around 6/120-130, that's probably a good bit more reasonable.

I think it's increasingly clear the team views Bregman as an 80 grade soft skills guy. I think that's the explanation for why they're so laser focused on him compared to the other comparable options.

I suspect we're really close to Bregman signing

Steele and Assad pretty close to estimates, Cabrera got a nice little bump likely as a welcome gift/goodwill gesture.

Assad getting a team option is....interesting. I feel like you usually only see multi-year arb deals with stars, where the team either wants to futz with the LT or at least just lock in some cost certainty. Assad was projected for $1.9M...short of like a Cy Young season he probably wouldn't crack $5M next year. I think this is a sign he's on the trade block.

Jim: So what's your strategy for this race? Pam: Well I'm gonna start fast. Jim: Mm-hmm. Pam: Then I'm gonna run fast in the middle. Jim: What? Pam: Then I'm gonna end fast. Jim: Why won't more people do that? [laughs] Pam: Cause they're just stupid.

The Phillies' outfield is probably the worst position group on any good team. There are not enough "Sure, Jan" gifs in the world for how skeptical I am of this report they're suddenly hot after Bichette.

I don't think it'd be super far off of Tucker. I think pitcher attrition scariness largely counterbalances the fact that Skubal's a little better.

Bellinger feels to me like a "yeah it can work now" move than any sort of plan A or frankly even a plan B. Like it's certainly better than sitting on the money, and it does help with Happ and Seiya hitting FA next winter. But in my mind a big benefit to specifically using Caissie to acquire Cabrera was clearing up the OF/DH mix. Bellinger not only undoes that but makes it worse.

There was an Athletic article in November where they asked if he had any regrets about not getting a better starter at the deadline. His response was essentially "no the prices were stupid, but I should have been more aggressive last winter." Then it talked about Jesus Luzardo for two paragraphs which tells me Jed name checked that failed deal but had to do it off the record. So there's a good chance the team enters the season with this current absurd level of pitching depth with the idea bring that they're probably not getting a SP in July, and if they do it'll top out at a Mike Soroka swing type.

Your timing is not ideal for making the argument that a rotation that prioritizes talent over durability will have a hard time making it through the playoffs.

This is contingent on being able to move Taillon and most of his salary, which certainly isn't a slam dunk, but honestly I'd probably prefer Gallen if you can't get one of Bichette/Tucker/Bregman. Gallen, Yoan Moncada, and your favorite reliever left on the market (Seranthony Dominguez or Ryne Stanek?) probably costs around $35M. If you can save at least like $12M in a Taillon trade that opens up that rotation spot and should allow you to do Tom/Jed's customary $10M under the tax move. It's not my favorite outcome from here, but as backup plans go I like it a lot. That rotation wins a lot of games.

I would not be surprised if they go basically right to the line, maybe even a smidge over. Basically the idea being if the team is in it Tom will be okay stretching things a bit, and if they're not between all the expiring contracts it will be very easy to dip under at the deadline. Alternatively, I would guess Rea is very movable. Maybe you wait until spring training for some team to have a pitcher injury crisis? But that contract is not bad and by holding onto all three of Assad/Brown/Wicks and having Steele/Wiggins coming mid season he's about as expendable as pitching depth can ever reasonably be.

This feels light even as someonewho adores Hernandez. If you asked me yesterday what this would cost I'd have said something very similar PLUS Assad or Wicks.

Official...and no pitcher included at all??

Also for anyone who doesn't frequent the minor league forum I'm not joking or exaggerating on the Hernandez thing I have receipts