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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I haven't run across this brand of internet tough guy in a while. Feels like I drove through a tunnel and woke up in 2015.
  2. Bertz
    From Sharma. I STG if they sign Phil Maton and hang the Mission Accomplished banner I'm going to lose my mind.
  3. Bertz
    I think what's far more likely is that the next year, maybe two, are being viewed as a "Last Dance" sort of deal before they enter another slash and burn cycle.
  4. Bertz
    So, it looks like you can add Statcast stats as columns on your custom dashboard? So like if I do that I can see that e.g. Ben Brown's fastball averaged 95.6 last year, Riley Thompson averaged 93.8, etc.
  5. Bertz
    Was wondering who the heck was going to come down with him
  6. Bertz
    I didn't initially see it last night when Brad first posted this so there might be phased rollout or something going on.
  7. Bertz
    I'll say that last year after his first couple starts, Hendricks' success felt pretty real and earned. I think he got lucky with some at'em balls his first few starts, but quickly knocked off the rust and settled in. The data backs this up too, from 6/28 onwards he had 18 starts with a 4.13 ERA and a 4.09 xFIP. And as you mention there were real changes to velocity and approach (and obviously health) which make you think last year was pretty real and not just a dead cat bounce. I understand the projection systems not liking him anymore, they shouldn't, but I also think he's the easiest call on the roster for exceeding those expectations. Prime Kyle isn't walking through that door, but if he can be the #3 starter he was last year it makes this pitching staff pretty feel much more legitimate.
  8. Bertz
    Fangraphs now has Statcast data (plate discipline, velocity, etc.) for AAA players. As Brad notes later in the thread right now I only see it for players who have also played in MLB, so guys like Busch/Morel/etc. I'm hoping that is just a temporary thing as this is clearly WIP.
  9. Bertz
    476 pitchers threw at least 30 innings in MLB last year. Jordan Wicks ranked 431st in K rate and 459th in Stuff+. Now I think the Stuff+ number on Fangraphs does a piss poor job of measuring changeups, but still he's clearly below average from a stuff perspective. I like Wicks, I'd probably give him the 5th starter spot to open next year. But I'm not supremely confident in him succeeding immediately to open next year and I'm frankly pretty down on his longterm upside.
  10. Bertz
    I think this is right. I think too, even in the situation where we roll snake eyes and none of those things go right it's probably more of a 1 WAR disappointment than the -2 WAR disaster 1B was last year. If Jed plugs the other two holes on the roster by pulling down Bellinger and adding a closer caliber reliever 3B would be pretty tame as a weak link on the roster. It can always be addressed at the deadline too.
  11. Bertz
    I believe Bob Nightengale said something very similar. That might simply be because Bellinger's the biggest name on the market but who knows maybe Jed has something impactful up his sleeve beyond Bellinger and a high leverage reliever.
  12. Bertz
    The one position the FO seems to be willing to give Morel a vote of confidence on is 1B. It's a waste of his speed and arm but he's going to be an option there. His bat is playable there too. Also Bellinger feels pretty inevitable at this point, so he'd keep the floor at 1B pretty high. 3B and Catcher are the places where things could easily go sideways pretty quickly IMO.
  13. Bertz
    Someone finally got Carter on the record about Busch at 3B: At this point I'm expecting Madrigal to be the primary 3B, at least initially. Busch appears to be the guy who will slide across the diamond if/when he falters though.
  14. Bertz
    This definitely feels like the team if the season started today, maybe with an Assad or Wesneski down at Iowa instead of working long relief. What I'm interested in is how some of these roles shift with the last couple acquisitions. - Bellinger would push Tauchman to the bench and presumably Mastrobuoni off the roster. I like Miles but there's nothing controversial here - It sounded at Cubs convention like Jed's adding two bats. Ideally that second guy would be a starting caliber 3B, but there don't appear to be many of those out there. So who is that guy, and who does that push off the roster? Like you alluded to Wisdom fits well right now but he's a prime candidate for being pushed off the roster - The pen is like you said a bit weird. There are currently three long relievers, which Ross would love but Counsell doesn't lean on as much. Almonte and Cuas are both sinker/slider righty specialist types. The closest thing to a LOOGY is Leiter. I'm increasingly wondering if two more RPs are on the way. One signing and one trade, with the trade coming via someone(s) that's a bit of a square peg on the roster
  15. Bertz
    Oh interesting, so a guy can miss that like 13 days or whatever which used to be the cutoff for manipulating their service time. Probably not super likely to make a difference, but if god forbid someone gets hurt in one of the first three series of the year and get replaced by the ROY winner it would matter.
  16. Bertz
    Why would they trade a guy they gave 1st round money to and had a phenomenal first season in the minors for Busch if they thought him and Mervis were more or less equivalent? Like people outside the org can make that argument sure, and maybe it's even correct, but it's completely clear the Cubs don't feel that way.
  17. Bertz
    FWIW the draft pick for winning ROY only happens if the guy spends the whole year in MLB. So it's probably Busch/Wicks or bust on that standpoint. I can't see PCA opening the year in MLB if we pull down Bellinger, which looks increasingly inevitable. Most of this doesn't surprise me individually, it's moreso that one list includes nearly everyone you could reasonably argue onto the list, about as high as you could reasonably argue them. And Brown/Rojas, the two closest things to omissions, were as you pointed out just barely left off. The Ballesteros defensive stuff is the one thing that does really surprise me. I LOOOOOOOOVVVVVVVVEEEEEEE the bat. If you could promise me he'd be an average defensive catcher he'd be my easy #1 prospect in the system. So to see Seidler express what I'd describe as cautious pessimism is still far more optimistic than I expected.
  18. Bertz
    After skipping Iowa the first time no less!
  19. Bertz
    Aside from Mervis, who it's really clear the org doesn't think much of, who's the last prospect to spend extended time in Iowa even if they were producing?
  20. Bertz
    This is incredible
  21. Bertz
    Didn't the Cubs also have that preposterous long streak of not getting shut out? I remember Sharma putting some decent data around I think it was the 2019 team and how they were beyond the pale, but the vast vast majority of the time this stuff comes out in the wash.
  22. Bertz
    I'm not a big fan of BA anymore but still good to see.
  23. Bertz
    Stanek and Ottavino are a big step down from those other guys. I would not be happy with them if they're the big RP get, even though I like them in a vacuum. Wonder if Almonte more or less didn't count and the plan is still 2 more relievers from here. Because of those 5 names Hader and Clase are in one tier, Stephenson is a step down from that, and Stanek/Ottavino are another down from that.
  24. Bertz
    Every team thinks their team's offense is too streaky. It's just baseball.
  25. Bertz
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