Bertz

It's the Harper offseason of '18-'19 and it's not close. They picked up Hamels' option, and then it was like the Padme/Anakin meme with us all thinking "they wouldn't do that and then literally nothing else, right?" We still felt good about the roster too. They won 95 games and would have won a couple mor. and the division if not for the death march.

I don't think there's a ton of difference between any of Boras' Big 4, at least for 2024. The Cubs are looking at similar-ish production from each of CF, 3B, and #5 starter, and each guy projects in the 3-3.5 WAR range.

I am curious what the second bat ends up being at this point. Bellinger is clearly plan A for the primary bat and if/when he ends up happening the position player group looks something like this: LF - Happ SS - Swanson RF - Suzuki CF - Bellinger DH - Morel 2B - Hoerner 1B - Busch C - Gomes 3B - Madrigal Bench - Amaya, Tauchman, Wisdom, Mastrobuoni This is actually a pretty complete group. I honestly wouldn't be totally surprised to see Jed let it ride, knowing that it's easy to fold in the kids from Iowa to plug any gaps. He did intimate that they're adding multiple bats though, and the things that stand out to me about the above are: - Madrigal is really not an ideal starting 3B - Wisdom aside, and he's got a *very* specific offensive niche, that bench is really light on pop - If Busch fails that bottom of the order has potential to get dicey quick You know who would really tie this whole group together? Brandon Belt. He would slot in as the primary DH and push Morel and his power to a 10th man utility role. He'd be a starting caliber 1B in case Busch fails (boo!) or starts taking on more time at 3B (yay!). He has a 142 wRC+ against righties the last three years, and we know Jed explicitly called that out as something they were looking to add to this group. The contact ability is sliding quickly as he gets older. As is the durability. But on a one year deal I think he's a fairly perfect complement to the current group (+ Bellinger probably).

Yeah with Busch on board and it being increasingly clear Morel's not going anywhere Hoskins' fit on the roster took a nosedive. He's a RHH lowball hitter, he's a little better hitter than Morel/Wisdom, but cut from the same mold and defensively redundant.

Look at it the other way though. Who are the teams that you could still see handing out a 9 figure deal? Yankees and Angels for sure. Rangers, Blue Jays, and Giants are unlikely but possible? There's a slim chance that some unlikely mystery team like the Nats wants to make Bellinger their modern day Jayson Werth? We as Cubs fans are worried about Jed losing the proverbial game of Musical Chairs, but honestly it currently looks like there are more chairs than players. This is part of why locking in Imanaga and Busch was so big. I think it's pretty clear the team wants Bellinger back, but if he goes elsewhere the team can pivot to one of the other three and not really lose that much (I might argue that Bellinger helps the 2024 Cubs the least but that's beside the point). You can play a similar game with the DH options, in fact Ken Rosenthal kind of already did this morning. Again if you don't anchor on one specific guy you've gotta have things get pretty team friendly pretty fast. I'm personally most worried about the remaining reliever. There's only like 2 FA arms left I'd be happy with, and like 3-4 more I'd be okay with.

Didn't the Seahawks run a ton of 12 personnel under Waldron? This might be a really perfect fit.

So I'm not aware of this guy ever actually breaking anything, but people treat him like he's not full of crap so who knows. It's not like anything real is going on. Also not sure how this makes sense for the Cubs unless Jed has something unexpected up his sleeve. Like even if he signs Chapman you'd probably keep Madrigal and trade one of Morel/Wisdom?

I still think something like the first Carlos Correa deal makes the most sense for all sides. If Bellinger keeps playing how he did last year and proves last year wasn't a fluke he'll opt out and get his $250M+, and might even have a crack at $300M. If he takes a step back but still produces, think like a 110 wRC+ and 3ish WAR, he's still so young snd won't have a QO attached so he'll opt out and easily get north of Brandon Nimmo money. If he turns into a pumpkin he already locked in that $100M. From Jed's point of view he probably signed a one year deal and can hand the position off to one of the kids next year. If things go south he doesn't have to deal with it for the rest of the decade.

Lots of good nuggets in here, with the biggest probably being Owen Caissie getting some work at 1B (finally!)

No you see the players are going to ignore the $2 billion that's already been spent on free agents and the other half billion still in the hopper and go to war because the vibes are off.

Really good read from MLBTR. 2018 looks to be the most analogous year to this current one, and even then his guys didn't do especially well. Now it's questionable which way the causation arrow is pointing, but interesting food for thought. Wouldn't be surprised to see Boras close a few deals in the next little bit to clear the decks some. Especially the pitchers, since they need the mid-February reporting date a lot more than the hitters.

TT put it better/more succinctly than I can at some point last week, but basically while you'd maybe put the odds below 50/50 on any individual member of the 3B crew putting together a season where they're worthy of being the everyday guy, given the volume of guys one or more of them probably ends up being worth it. My guess is that Madrigal is the primary guy, with Busch and/or Wisdom sliding over there for certain matchups. Ultimately though, I think one of the kids takes the job by June or it's addressed at the trade deadline. I'm fine with the uncertainty, but I do think it basically necessitates Bellinger coming back. If Jed had pulled down Soto or Ohtani we could play the "it'll probably be fine" game at both CF and 3B, but without a true lineup anchor we can't risk the entire bottom 3rd of the order being a wash.

Two things - The first two offseasons under this CBA have generally been viewed as very good for the players - The players that have signed thus far this winter have generally made what was expected Unless a bunch of guys get left out in the cold at the end of the offseason I think this is going to be viewed more as an annoyance than something worth going to war over. Like the DH market is probably going to get squeezed but everyone else looks like they're going to get their money, just a month later than expected. And that timing can be chalked up to some combo of Boras/Diamond/Ohtani unless it happens again next winter.

Doesn't detail exactly what updates he's making but hard not to notice several changeup-heavy guys including Kyle. Wouldn't be surprised to see Wicks get some lift as well.

David Robertson is a reverse splits guy, so I would sign him in lieu of a lefty. We know he likes the city and the coaching staff, at his age he's likely just looking for a one year deal, and with a couple hundred saves under his belt he can do the mentor thing for some of our younger relievers. He's at an age where things can go south in a hurry, but literally everything else about him is perfect for what this team needs.

Phil Maton is basically a righty specialist, almost unplayable against lefties the last two years. He gets elite spin rates....and that's about it? He had a sparkling ERA last year but doesn't have a history of outperforming his peripherals so it looks like luck. If he was the #2 guy we were adding instead of Almonte it'd be not my first choice but fine. But Jed needs to aim quite a bit higher for the other reliever. Ryne Stanek's peripherals aren't as good as I would like, but he actually does have a history of outperforming them. His ERA is a run lower than his xFIP for his entire career. He's also an elite stuff guy. Of the 347 pitchers who threw more than 50 innings last year, Stanek was 15th in velo and 9th in Stuff+. He's not my first choice but I'm not going to like flip a table if he's the primary reliever Jed adds.

The Cubs are a "benefit of the doubt" team when it comes to acquiring and developing relievers. They're not infallible like the Rays, but since the reorg post 2019 their list of wins is much longer and more impactful than their list of losses. That said, this other reliever needs to have a minimum level of certainty and track record. Almonte is a developmental add who you can easily see ending up as a Fulmer-caliber part of the 2024 pen. But this team needs a guy who you could trust closing a game right away on April 1st, no wish casting required. Of the names we've seen bandied about I think Ryne Stanek is probably the minimum acceptable option in my mind. I don't actually think he clears the bar of what I want on a performance standpoint, but the stuff is so hyper-elite I'd make peace with him as the big addition.

It seems likely now that if Stroman had opted in Jed wouldn't have done anything with the rotation. I think extending Hendricks is something that made more sense then so that you dont have two rotation spots to fill at the end of '24.

They traded Darvish, the Cy Young runner up, for four 18 year olds. As much as we'd like to handwave it away it is exceedingly difficult to trade long term money. Doubly so if guys have NTCs. Happ, Seiya, and Dansby already have them, Bellinger and Chapman would probably get them too. Hoerner would be the only position player without one. If you lock up Chapman and Bellinger, payroll in '25 and '26 is already within ~$20M of the luxury tax. So unless Tom is cool going over three years in a row (which he wasn't at the end of last decade), you're done with major FA signings until 2027. Fine, we can sit out FA, Jed doesn't do much there anyway, right? Well you've got 6 lineup spots locked in with veterans meaning your options for improving the lineup deal are: - Focusing just on 1B/C/DH, three positions that don't tend to get a lot of impact talent making it all the way to FA. We do have prospects at these spots, but if you need to improve the lineup do you want to count on that improvement coming from kids? - Trading Hoerner, the guy who is 31st in WAR over the last two years. Not exactly easy to improve on that - Do nothing, acknowledging the position player group more or less is what it is for a few years, and just focusing on the pitching staff Unless the launch of Marquee has fundamentally changed the team's financial equation Jed's got two, maybe three, long term deals he can sign over the next three years. Using those bullets on Chapman and Bellinger, guys with obvious warts we've been discussing all winter, just because they're the guys here right now is the adult equivalent of the marshmallow test.

That's my read too. Only question is if they do a full teardown next winter or at the '25 trade deadline.

Cool, now bring me Stephenson and/or Robertson

How many non-elite players do you really want locked up long term? There's an opportunity cost to that path not just with dollars but roster spots.

I think Chapman/Bellinger each have pros/cons. Pros for Chapman - You can much more safely assume he's a 3.5 WAR impact player - While it didn't manifest in dongs in 2023, he's got MUCH more power than Bellinget - I think most of us feel better about Tauchman than any of the motley crew of 3B currently on the roster - The over/under is probably right around $100M as opposed to $150M for Bellinger Cons: - His offensive skillset, i.e. being a RHH hitter with + power, lots of K's, and a giant hole at the top of the zone, is very redundant on this team. He's more or less Wisdom with a few more walks and a lot more defense - He's 2.5 years older than Bellinger - Bellinger having been here for a year proved that he's a fit with the coaches/players/city. There is a higher chance of Chapman going all Heyward on us just because we don't *know* thatt all of those soft factors are going to line up right - Bellinger seems likely to gracefully slide down the defensive spectrum from being a CF to a plus defensive corner guy. Chapman’s value is likely to fall off a cliff when his defense at 3rd goes, because the logical next step is 1B I think broadly I like Chapman a little more for 2024, but think Bellinger's a much much better fit beyond.