Bertz

I'd be pretty shocked if Jed actually pulled down Miller. I do think we're at the stage of the competitive cycle where he'll be less conservative, but giving up what Oakland will require for Miller's long term control just feels like something Jed will never do regardless of circumstances. Kind of like signing Hader last winter it feels like we can just dismiss it out of hand. I do expect bullpen reinforcements. I'm a broken record but a guy like Ryan Pressly feels like the right level of expenditure. Maybe paired with a Cuas style "stuff monster who we think we can fix." Someone like Nate Pearson? Bullpen aside, I do wonder if we're at the part of the competitive cycle where Jed is more willing to do something dramatic. The farm has a lot of talent that's major league adjacent, the team's on the meaty part of the win curve, and catcher aside there are no major holes on the roster. If there is a point Jed will be willing to let his hair down and go for a Vladito or a Jesus Luzardo or something like that this summer feels like the most logical time.

Pete Crow-ArmstrongMatt ShawCade HortonOwen CaissieKevin AlcantaraBen BrownMoises BallesterosJames TriantosJefferson RojasAlexander CanarioJaxon WigginsLuis VazquezCristian HernandezDrew GrayFernando CruzMichael AriasBJ Murray JrBrandon BirdsellMichael CaricoBrennen Davis

This is a weird choice, not necessarily a bad one but it is weird. With Tauchman being essentially an everyday player now there are no lefties or dedicated outfielders on the bench. Neither of those is a problem necessarily, but it feels weird to paint yourself in that corner for the sake of Nick Madrigal? I wonder if this is temporary, give it a week or so to prove that Hoerner is truly healthy and then bring an outfielder (Brennen Davis?) up.

Gray's next start is this weekend vs. the Cubs

If Kyle was just a guy, I think you'd clearly phantom IL him again this week, and then probably cut him at some point in June/July when you need the 40 man spot. As is there's some push/pull between doing right by a franchise icon and the fact that this is untenable. Also the next two starts for this spot in the rotation are the Braves, a pretty unforgiving matchup, and the Brewers, a matchup of outsized importance. IF the team holds off on cutting bait until Wicks comes back, I think the TTO numbers are of interest. I wonder if we take a couple turns of letting him go just once through the order, serving as almost a jumbo opener? His issue appears to be that essentially nothing but his changeup is working like he wants. But if you limit teams to one look and pair him with a wildly different pitcher like Ben Brown, that might work. At least worth giving a shot the 2-3 turns back through the rotation before Wicks comes back?

Certainly not for good, but I could see a spot start as a bridge to Hendricks exiting the rotation and Wicks re-entering. Especially if he only has to go like 9-15 batters before handing off to Brown or Wesneski.

Hendricks is currently in line to start Thursday, so them throwing a TBD up there says something. I wonder if the plan is a bullpen game (led by Brown/Wesneski) unless the bullpen gets shredded Tuesday/Wednesday? Or if you wanted to get wild you could call up Horton....

Based on the Mooney article a few posts up, it sounds like Hoerner is also back tomorrow. So I think Madrigal AND Mastro get banished to Iowa. I don't believe a DFA is necessary, though Madrigal's got enough service time where I know it starts getting murky. But tomorrow the opening day lineup should presumably finally be back together finally. Then the bench is Vasquez as the backup infielder, PCA as the backup outfielder, Wisdom as the power goof, and Gomes the backup catcher.

I am really curious what the plan is at catcher. I'll be honest I'm not super worried about Amaya. He's been bad but doesn't look broken. He's chasing too much which is resulting in him putting too many balls on the ground, but nothing here screams broken. Contact and exit velo are fine. I think he's probably trying to keep his head above water with the added defensive responsibility and his offense is suffering for it. It *should* be temporary. Gomes though looks broken. The bat is slow and his contact has eroded, and he has never been a plate discipline guy. The framing is atrocious, I'm not an animated guy when I watch games but I was actually yelling at my TV last weekend during that Steele/Skenes matchup. I believe in the game calling/extra coach on the field stuff but there's no way it outweighs everything else as currently going. So what do you do? We know the team really believes in catcher soft skills, and we know even teams who aren't so gung ho about those tend to be reticent to trade for catchers mid-season. Is the team more willing to swap out Gomes with Amaya so capably stewarding the staff? Is Gomes bad enough that it overrides those concerns? Do we trade for a catcher, and perhaps going against Jed's sensibilities do it early, and have Gomes parked in that last bench spot until the new guy gets up to speed? I would love to add Danny Jansen. He's an impending FA and shouldn't cost too much. He's got enough bat that he could do the Mitch Garver role and ease into catcher playing time. The Blue Jays have Kirk in house already, so given the standings they could sell, hopefully early, without going full white flag.

BABIP: 190

This makes me nervous. Counsell had some comments pregame about "Tuesday being a good day" which implied Swanson and Hoerner were coming back then. Vasquez can still come up if they're both healthy, it just requires dumping both of Madrigal/Mastro to Iowa. But what feels more likely is that Swanson will be back, Vasquez will be up, Hoerner will be IL'd, and just Madrigal gets sent to Iowa.

He's coming off an injury so I'd give him a little more time to go on a heater but Verlander is looking pretty cooked. I do think rotation is an underrated need at the deadline. None of the youths outside of Assad and Wesneski can reasonably be expected to give you 150 innings this year. Between normal injuries, guys hitting inning caps, and guys losing effectiveness as they approach inning caps, May's rotation surplus may be thinned out enough to be a problem come August/September.

Padres-Braves rainout means Atlanta plays a double header on Monday before flying to Chicago to play the Cubs. Pretty huge rest advantage, hopefully that lets the Cubs sneak 2/3.

Cade averaged 94.4 on his fastball yesterday but when I checked mid game (after the 3rd?) it was 95 on the dot. So I do think the less than stellar velo were getting is largely a matter of him getting stretched out l.

This is a silly way of looking at things. The playoffs allow you to tactically align and leverage your pitching in a way that's not reasonable in the regular season so it's really apples and oranges.

HELLO

Wesneski and Brown fit very cleanly into the bullpen. I do wonder if, assuming no more injuries in the meantime, Wicks' return is when something potentially drastic happens with Hendricks.

I'm intrigued by some of the stuff about opposite field flyballs Trueblood posted, but broadly with Assad two things are true: - He has likely been extraordinarily lucky. He is not a soft contact guy. He is not an extreme groundball guy. He is not an extreme strikeout guy. The ways that someone can break FIP that we are aware of simply aren't present here - He has been good even when you strip out all luck. Going back to August 1st of last year Assad has, 3 short relief appearances aside, been a starter. In that time he has a 3.95 xFIP while the league mark is 4.16

Statcast doesn't make this as easy as I'd like, and FG doesn't have any of their fancier data game by game for minor leaguers like they do for major leaguers. However, it appears that Davis has over the last week or so finally reached a level of contact that is not particularly problematic. Looks like he's running a ~70% contact rate in this time, which is below average but totally fine for a power hitter. April he was under 60%, which is basically only sustainable if you're prime Joey Gallo. Given the trials and tribulations you need a hell of a lot more than a week of adequate contact data before you start clamoring for a callup. However because of those trials and tribulations I think you can be more hopeful that the improved contact numbers are a rediscovering of form and not general ebbs and flows.

Yeah I think unless/until our best DH option is not an outfielder, or until his performance craters, PCA probably ought to be up and playing 4ish days a week.

Houston's won 4 in a row, they appear to be pulling out of it. Though the pitching matchups this weekend are not great. On the Cubs side, much like the road trip I view this series and the next as a package deal. You want to go 4-3 in these 7. That probably looks like 3/4 this weekend and 1/3 against the Braves? But with the Cubs having the off day Monday while the Braves play a wraparound series, plus the way the pitching matchups work out, beating the Braves this 2nd go around is much more reasonable than it would have been this past series.

Remember all the dummies who thought PCA was a bust because of his September callup? lol. lmao even

This is a really really great list. Lot's of extremely current info, e.g. Porter Hodge toying with a splitter. Last year it was clear 90% the blurbs were written in March/April and Eric just needed to get the list out prior to the draft.

Sounds like Luis Vasquez is still in Iowa, which he probably wouldn't be if they expected Hoerner to be more than day to day