Bertz

The honest answer is there probably isn't a path forward. The raw juice is in there for more power, but to get to it consistently probably requires a commensurate drop in contact. And even if he does figure out a better balance the defense will start sliding soon. That said he's a 4 WAR guy give or take a little bit each season depending on how generous the BABIP gods are. I probably wouldn't extend him a second time but we should all be extremely happy to have him through his current contract.

Still surprised the Nationals are going to get to the end of Corbin's contract without making him a reliever. It really feels like that would have been a way to salvage things in the back half of the deal. With that slider and sitting more 93 than 91 it feels like he would have had a chance in a setup role a la Will Smith?

Exactly. There is a horsefeathers implication from the team going over by a little bit, but it's no mismanagement or incompetence, it's resources. At this point it feels safe to say even in a championship window this team is probably going to top out $10-20M over the tax. There is a smaller implication, which is that the team is probably not going to sign a QO free agent. But honestly that's Jed's default status, this just seems to lock it in even tighter.

The Athletic reported immediately after the Bellinger signing that they were likely close enough to the LT that they would end up over with normal day to day roster churn. This didn't sneak up on anybody, and even if Jed was painted into a corner by Boras on the exact structure of the deal (doubtful given how badly he got worked over on the subsequent Boras 4 signings) if it was some sort of deal breaker Jed could have cut some salary at the deadline. Like you say it's a "strategic blunder" and some sort of fixable offense, what exactly do you think the costs are of going over the line?

I know steals are easier to come by than ever, but I still love that Triantos and Shaw both have that in their games.

If crossing the LT was a grave sin that is going to cost Jed his job, why do you think he re-signed Bellinger to the deal that he did? Adding an extra year, lowering the AAV, and giving Bellinger additional money to opt into would have been a win win for all involved. Further, why did he add salary at the trade deadline knowing that all of the IL time in the first half of the year put them right on the edge?

What are you basing any of this on?

Yup. Lop off $25M if he opts in

These rules are inscrutable, but Smyly doesn't impact 2025 at all. That money is accounted for already in '23 and '24. The CBA uses average annual values with buyouts and such included specifically to head off as many schemes and shenanigans as possible. Separately, a quick and dirty rule of thumb is that guys get a 50% raise each round of arb. If we use that rough number plus make these two assumptions: - Wisdom, Alzolay, Bethancourt, Madrigal, and Almonte all get traded or non-tendered - Jed holds $5M back for breathing room (trade deadline acquisitions, performance bonuses, IL time, etc.) I'm showing the team $79M under the tax. There might be a little deviation from those two assumptions above, which would likely lower the $ available. At the same time Jed showed this year he's not necessarily going to sweat being a couple million over, which would raise it. But overall without getting too deep into the accounting weeds $80M is a nice round number to us to collectively keep in our heads even if it might be off by a couple percent in either direction.

Well nevermind on Palencia being safe I guess Wesneski pitched yesterday for Iowa so he'll probably be a Thursday or Friday move

Yes but I hope they do it anyway. I assume Neely is out, so that's one. It would be weird to bring Palencia back yesterday and send him right back out today, so I assume he's safe. Roberts seems to have earned a bit of Craig's trust. Cut Armstrong and send Wicks back to Iowa?

Leaguewide strikeout rate is also WAY higher now. 22.5% this year 17.5% in 2008. Having a slap hitter with a 10% K rate is now a refreshing change of pace.

Going to be a heavy transaction day between this, Steele, and possibly Lopez.

Hard to put exacts on it this far out but it's closer to 80M available if Bellinger leaves

Nico Hoerner 1st half: 98 wRC+ Nico Hoerner 2nd half: 99 wRC+ Nico Hoerner 1st half xwOBA: .316 Nico Hoerner 2nd half xwOBA: .310 He was walking more in the 1st half and has had a bit more BABIP in the 2nd, but he's the same guy with some normal ebbs and flows of his peripherals.

Sharma with a great one this AM: Talks Christian Franklin, Cristian Hernandez, Alfonsin Rosario, Brett Bateman, and Johnny Long. Here's Long's writeup:

Not especially prospect driven but good lord striking out 18 opposing batters in the first game of a playoff series is a statement.

I know pre-game yesterday they said Lopez is coming back in the next few days as well. Palencia and Lopez in Wingenter and Neely out?

To the broader topic, I think it can be helpful to game these things out. Let's say for simplicity Cody's gone, Jed's got $80M to spend, isn't willing to trade major prospects, but is willing to eat a qualifying offer. Would you rather have: Scenario A (Bats Forward): - $25M and a QO on Pete Alonso or your favorite non-Soto OF bat - $8M on Carson Kelly or Danny Jansen - $15M on premium bench options like Amed Rosario and Carlos Santana - $20M on Nate Eovaldi or Yusei Kikuchi - $10M on Kirby Yates or some other quality setup man Scenario B (Pitching Forward): - $25 and a QO on Max Fried or comparable - $15M on a proven closer like Kenley Jansen or David Robertson - $10M on Kirby Yates or some other quality setup man - $15M on a pure DH like JDM or Justin Turner - $8M on Carson Kelly or Danny Jansen - $5M on bench help, probably a RHH platoon OF like Manny Margot

While PCA is the only everyday hitter penciled into the OD lineup young enough to bank on improvement from, none of the starting hitters are old enough to expect more than modest decline. 29-31 is post prime but before sharp decline typically sets in. Happ/Swanson/Suzuki/Hoerner are going to combine for ~14 WAR this year, and the rough expectation heading into next year is likely going to be a smidge north of 12. Unless Jed does literally nothing and Mike Tauchman’s an everyday outfielder, the upside from the youths probably outweighs the downside on the vets for another year or two.

From Cody's POV, pros and cons of opting out this winter: Con: You're absolutely not getting that mega deal you want. Marcus Semien money is not coming in the door, even Brandon Nimmo money would be a big stretch Con: You've got 2/$52M banked with another opt out banked currently Con: You seem to enjoy Chicago and your Cub teammates Pro: You'd be hitting the market as a 29 year old as opposed to a 30 or 31 year old Pro: While you didn't confirm that 2023 was your true talent level, you did confirm that '21-'22 level of production is fully in the rearview mirror Pro: You don't have a Qualifying Offer attached to you, while all the other FA OFs of note this winter will Pro: Harrison Bader is the only other legitimate CF slated to be on the market Pro: Teams still likely view you as a CF. However the path to CF playing time is looking increasingly tenuous going forward, putting more pressure on your bat I would guess Cody opts out and gets something like 5/$110M this winter. It's obviously not a slam dunk though, and I think the only wrong answer is thinking it's clear cut in either direction.

Miguel Amaya got benched for a few days in early July to work on his swing. He came back on 7/7 and immediately started hitting. That mercifully removed an automatic out from the bottom of the Cubs order. Since that day, the Cubs are 3rd in wRC+ in baseball, and 2nd in runs per game at 5.4. Now I don't think the Cubs walk into the offseason with the 2nd or 3rd best offense in baseball. There's a good bit of schedule and a good bit of batted ball luck to those second half numbers. However I do think Amaya (and PCA of course) righting the ship and fixing the bottom of the order unbroke the offense. I would like to add offense to battle any inevitable regression, though I do think it's worth noting that Iowa has 5 top 100 hitter prospects collectively capable of covering every defensive position. Jed should address the position player group of course, but it doesn't *need* impact players. Impact players are always welcome, there should be enough resources this winter to add impact on both sides of the ball, but if paired with balling out on the pitching staff a co-starter at catcher and a better bench wouldn't be the worst outcome in the world on the position side. The pitching staff though is kind of the opposite. It needs impact talent, and not really depth so much. On the SP side Steele and Shota are great, but neither is a paragon of health, and as low velo pitchers are very prone to rapid drops in effectiveness even setting aside injury. Jameson Taillon is a boring league average starter. The young guys all have questions around health (Brown, Horton), ceiling (Assad, Wesneski, Birdsell), or both (Wicks). Adding a playoff caliber starter, even if he's not an ace, just radically changes the complexion of this group. Similar story in the bullpen. Hodge is a GUY. There are a bunch of other guys who it's easy to like but hard to trust implicitly. Adding someone else in the Hodge tier, plus maybe a matchup lefty, would insulate the pen from a rough early season going while Hottovy sorts through those promising but unproven arms. Adding two impact arms would give us a pen that is lock down on day 1, and downright intimidating by June or July.

He's probably north of 50/50 to finish above 4 WAR at this point

Bob Nightengale

I would tend to disagree but I think the one thing that is certain is that there's not a super strong argument in either direction.