Bertz

One thing I just realized: whether intentional or not the Cubs' offseason does not necessarily need to run through Scott Boras. Burnes, Snell, and Kikuchi are Boras clients, but the rest of the prominent SPs including Fried aren't. Bellinger opting in means the team isn't playing in the waters of guys like Pete Alonso. Bregman went out the windows with the Paredes trade. Like I don't know the agent of every reliever and bench guy, but Kikuchi and maybe Tyler O'neill are the only guys that feel like potential Jed targets, are Boras clients, and are slated to make enough money to be subject to potentially be part of any shenanigans.

I'd presume at least one of those SPs would go back to Seattle in a deal, so it'd be sort of depth-neutral. What you'd be doing is adding talent (or at minimum certainty) to that 5th starter spot. Given how settled things are on the position player side, I tend to think it's actually one of the most effective ways to bulk add wins to this roster.

Part of the problem with Caissie is that while he's the most clearly blocked right now, we have essentially zero LHH power behind him in the system. Like there's nothing at Tenn, at SB I guess you could hope on Edgar Alvarez going all Johnny Long on us next year, and then Ramon or Escobar at Myrtle? It's not enough that you can flat refuse to move him, but I do think that moving Alcantara would be preferable. Triantos has gotten favorable reviews in limited time in center, and with his contact/speed combo and ability to at least nominally play the infield more naturally slides into a reserve role.

I'm going to stump for Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo a bit. I do not at all consider them consolation prizes Bryce Miller: - Is one of only 21 pitchers to top 180 innings last year. He started 29 games last year (major plus minors) and 26 the year before that. It is about as clean of an arm as you'll find, and at 26 should be past the first "injury nexus" - Among pitchers with at least 100 innings last year, Miller is 14th in Stuff+ overall, and 4th on his fastball specifically. If you don't like the pitch models, he's 33rd in just pure fastball velo, two spots behind Zack Wheeler - Throws a lot of strikes (75th percentile) and yet still gets a ton of swing and miss within the strike zone (74th percentile) - The one singular negative I can find on him is some pretty stark home/road splits this year. Given part of Safeco's deal is a wonky batters eye it's worth looking into more Bryan Woo: - Throws even more strikes than Miller, in fact is second in the league behind only Justin Steele. His in zone swing and miss is pretty average (52nd percentile) but you could potentially juice that by simply not throwing such an overwhelming number of pitches in the zone and fishing for chase a bit more - Seriously, he throws so many strikes. His walk rate was the lowest in baseball this year - Woo is 30th in Stuff+, and 39th in raw fastball velo - You need more innings to be sure this is skill, but he to this point has generated a lot of soft contact - Like Miller, there are some notable home/road splits. It's not necessarily a problem, some people just find more comfort at home, but with Seattle being involved it raises an eyebrow I would probably widen the ring of guys I'd move Shaw for to include Miller. Woo, being a half step behind Miller pretty much all around, I think would be just outside. But broadly Jed should absolutely look into all of these guys. Getting one AND making a big FA splash would give you a rotation with a very good chance for being the best in the league while still leaving resources for the other items on the offseason to-do list.

I think you should take the under on nearly any 1B prospect, but especially one without stupid power. But he's on the right side of the age relative to league equation, he's got great K/BB numbers, good Statcast numbers, and of course the patience and contact numbers, and of course the actual production. A year ago I didn't know who he was, and now he's a guy in the 10-15 range of a really good farm. Something in the Christian Walker neighborhood feels like an imminently reasonable outcome.

With the way that it's so easy to fit Shaw onto the roster in addition to his actual resume, he's pretty close to untouchable for me. But for any of the Mariners young guys? For them we can talk.

It makes sense, of the quintet of bats at Iowa Caissie is the guy likely most able to step in and take a job from jump on opening day. At the same time he's got the toughest short term path to everyday at bats. I will say, given that it looks like the club isn't prioritizing adding a power bat trading the guy at Iowa with the most power does feel like it comes with particula potential to blow up in our faces.

It's wild how few alternatives there are to Castro. Lefty infielders are apparently all stars or scrubs at this point. If you miss on him it's a wide gap to a bunch of guys in the Cavan Biggio tier. I agree I think he is the guy this winter where I am most locked in on a specific name and not an idea or a tier of players. On trade, I really liked Trueblood's trade for Griffin Jax and make him a starter idea. That would really juice the upside in the 5th starter spot, but has the nice safe fallback of returning him to the pen where he's dominant. It would also, to the broader convo, be something that would require cashing in some of the trade chips.

I think if you wanted to take this as gospel, combine into one coherent offseason, plus use inference to fill in some gaps, it would look something like this: - Sign Max Fried for 6-7 years and ~$25M per - Beef up the bench, let's say a trade for Utility Guy Willi Castro, sign Ryan Mountcastle after he gets non tendered for the Patrick Wisdom role, and sign Danny Jansen to pair with Amaya behind the plate. Roughly ~$20M in salary added - Add three relievers of note. Something like trade with the Giants for Camilo Doval. trade Mike Tauchman to the Guardians for setup man Tim Herrin, and re-sign Jorge Lopez. $10-15M added The Good: This team is preposterously deep. There is redundancy, generally multiple layers, everywhere on the diamond. What we have chilling at Iowa only adds to that. Also by not spending that premium prospect capital. the team still has those bullets available for the summer (either via callup or trade). The rotation, particularly the top, compares favorably with essentially any others besides the Mariners, Phillies, and healthy Dodgers. The Bad: I hope you subscribe to the weak link theory to roster building. The position player group is strong and deep, but there's no hitter with an over/under on dongs north of about 25. The guys who rack up a ton of WAR do so via defense. On the pitching staff similarly there is a lot to like but no fire-breathing ace or closer unless one of the kids steps up.

Good for Kyle. On that pitching staff ve should have plenty of runway, and he'll be close to home and be able to get that 100th win. If he is able to right the ship he'll get shipped off to a contender in July.

It's interesting because this year that next tier is really robust. Flaherty. Kikuchi, and Eovaldi are all very fun arms, and Kikuchi in particular I think has a chance to pull an Imanaga and just way out pitch his contract. But if you're not going top of market on a SP, and you're planning a fairly light touch on the position player side, and you fundamentally don't like spending big resources on the bullpen...feels like you've run out of places to improve. Maybe a second SP? Kikuchi and Bieber for instance?

Lot of good rumors here, some notables: - Team is looking big at SP, but Burnes (price) and Snell (style) are unlikely. Fried makes sense, but they will also look at trades and may potentially drop down to the next tier (citing how well Taillon and Imanaga have worked out). Seems pretty clear if Jed takes a big swing it will be at SP - Cubs are looking to add a catcher, but it's going to be a vet to pair with Amaya, not an everyday option. Kelly, d'Arnaud, and Jansen all get namechecked. Part of the impotice here is an increasing belief that with time Ballesteros can stick behind the plate - On the bullpen, the name of the game appears to be depth rather than a big swing for a closer - The team doesn't seem super worried about Hoerner's surgery. They're not going to bring in a starter, instead likely "a left-handed-hitting utility guy who could move around an infield that features Swanson, Hoerner and Isaac Paredes." - Nothing else about the offense was mentioned. I would really doubt anyone of substance gets added. IMO set expectations at like a Ryan Mountcastle type as a direct 1:1 replacement for Wisdom.

I won't write it off completely, Jed not committing to Bellinger in right and Seiya at DH sowed a bit of doubt in my mind, but I'd be very surprised if they acquire a non-catcher you'd expect to be the everyday starter at one position. Someone like a Taylor Ward or a Brandon Lowe that you can at least nominally pencil in across like 3-4 positions feels far more likely

They also mentioned that Bellinger in RF and Seiya at DG is probably where things end up, but it's not a lock. Combined with what you noted about "lanes" I take that as flexibility is a factor on the position player side. E.g. a guy like Mark Canha or Justin Turner over a guy like Carlos Santana. On the pitching side, clearly Jed should go full 2011 Phillies and trade for Crochet AND sign Max Fried.

Jed does a lot of executive speak in this piece but directly calls out a matchup guy against lefties as a to-do

Jon is not connected *at all* but he manages the payroll pages at FG and he's way too online so he logics his way into these predictions and updates them frequently throughout the winter. "This is what makes sense" is a nice complement to "this is what I'm hearing."

I would rather have Paredes or Brewer than Zastyzny, but not enough that it matters. Wingenter and Hollowell have seemed like the favored sons amongst the waiver wire types. Curious if they're slated to make it to ST or if they're just slightly ahead of these guys on the totem pole and get cycled off the roster later this winter.

His age scares me to the point I'd lean no, but I'd consider it. Belli being back means our righty bat doesn't need to provide OF coverage. He's pretty low ceiling so I'd want him to be paired with something a little more exciting at catcher or for the reserve infielder we need. Like I'm very much of the mind we poor more resources into pitching than hitting but if our offseason hitting additions are like Santana, Cavan Biggio. and Carson Kelly, that's over correcting IMO.

In MLB every bat, ball, player, and individual limb of every player is tracked dozens of times per second during every live play. I earnestly struggle to think of anything on the field a scout can provide that can't be seen on camera or recorded via tracking. Even soft stuff is generally pretty well known publicly by most fanbases at this point, not to mention player/coach movement. MLB/Advance scouting very much feels like a "you have to do it because it's the way it's always been done" deal rather than something that actually matters. In the upper minors, we have pretty low rent broadcasts and a lesser version of Statcast. My understanding is teams have full statcast for the minors, but I'm not sure what the video situation is. Soft stuff, I'd imagine you know pretty well for other teams in your league, but not as much for other leagues at each level? I would probably want scouts in the Cal League, the PCL, etc. primarily to pick up on hot goss. I wonder if the seven guys remaining are one for each level for full season and one for each league at the complex level? For amateurs you desperately need scouts. That soft stuff is absolutely essential, since work ethic adaptability, etc. are so key to future growth. Thankfully sounds like this area's not being touched. All in all I mostly shrug at this? Like even the line about the Astros adding scouts misses the context that when they were in their successful run under prior leadership they were the original pioneers of this type of scouting structure and were wildly successful at it.

Statcast likes his defense, DRS has historically liked it but not this year. His contact numbers slipped a bit this year too. If he wasn't 36 I don't think anything in his profile would raise an eyebrow. But as is I'd probably try to keep him to 1 year, but be very happy if we could.

This is where I'm ending up too. - Trade for the best SP you can - Spend ~$20M on relief help - Use the rest of cash on hand buffing up the bench Maybe try and trade for a young catcher instead of signing a boring vet if the SP trade doesn't clean you out too much.

Also the 5 guys in the lineup who are remaining from 2023 are really good! Happ, Suzuki, Belli, Swanson, and Hoerner combined for nearly 18 wins last year. and project for around 15 this year. There's this weird thing where the fanbase has convinced itself the problem last year is that Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ aren't Corey Seager and Bryce Harper. No, the problem last year is that until a few days before the all-star star break anyone who played Catcher or 3B for this team played like they were suffering from a wasting disease.

He does. $3M for one of the half dozen best pitchers in the sport would be quite a needle mover.