squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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They should have sent like 15 guys to go mourn Charlie Kirk for two weeks maybe
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No he shouldn’t start over Suzuki.
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I think the plan is the former, and the almost-worst case scenario* plan where Sunday matters is the latter. *Worst case scenario is by the time we get to Sunday we've already lost HFA
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You're not breaking horsefeathers dude, we're all very aware, it doesn't mean it doesn't suck. All these horsefeathers meatheads who scream about how pathetic these guys are because they have to gall to hit an occasional popup are all also weirdly fine with the starting third baseman missing two separate September baseball games over this. Weird.
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This series starts tomorrow, for anyone else who might be confused.
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In the last 18 games, the cubs are second in runs allowed with 65. The Guardians are first…with 28. Just outrageous baseball being played there.
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This should have been taillon going today but they’re pushing everyone back to give them additional rest, even though they have Monday (and next Monday) off, which should tell you how much the team cares about these games. And that’s before considering the opponent playing for their playoff lives every night. it’s fine.
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Second half Kyle Tucker has a .375 OBP, what's your proposal to do better than in right field?
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Cubs (Rea) vs Reds (Greene): 9/18/25, 6:15pm
squally1313 replied to Brandon Glick's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Elbow soreness for Megill during a bullpen session two days ago. So doesn't look good there. They've slowed down on Uribe pretty significantly, only pitched twice since 9/5, but you need all the arms you can get. -
Do they trust Ballesteros to play any first base at all? Padres are all RHP in their rotation, so it'll be Busch at first in all the games. But they have (right now, with expanded rosters) 4 LHPs in their bullpen. Do they trust Ballesteros to come in for Turner if they go to Turner in like, the 5th inning? If not....what's the scenario where Ballesteros comes in for a righty hitter? Not Suzuki, probably not Kelly, almost certainly not Hoerner, I would say no for Dansby....Shaw I guess?
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Cubs (Rea) vs Reds (Greene): 9/18/25, 6:15pm
squally1313 replied to Brandon Glick's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
lol spot on
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Cubs (Rea) vs Reds (Greene): 9/18/25, 6:15pm
squally1313 replied to Brandon Glick's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
There's too many teams involved, playing poorly, to say for sure. There are four teams within two games of that last spot (NYM, Arizona, Cincy, SF), and they are a combined 16-24 in their last 40 games. They all keep playing the way they've been playing, and a Reds split would probably put them all into a four way tie. Mets have one more against SD which is theoretically still playing for HFA/the division, then the Nats and home, then they come to Wrigley. As mentioned above, it's really great that the Cubs stayed above the fray because they're going to be tangentially involved in a race that could get pretty interesting here. -
Cubs (Rea) vs Reds (Greene): 9/18/25, 6:15pm
squally1313 replied to Brandon Glick's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Alcantara, McGuire, Ballesteros (try him at first?) for sure. Probably Castro in the middle infield somewhere. Another shot for Santana? -
This is a pretty dumb double standard, but you know what....sure, go Cubs. Stay healthy for another week, maybe even do something dumb like get super hot and scare Milwaukee a little bit. Then let's go flip some coins.
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I don't know guys....the team is 9-5 in September, we have the fourth best record in baseball, I've been watching videos of Happ crying in happiness and everyone else soaking themselves in champagne, but then I remembered that we went 5-8 that one time and it's like....do we even want to make the playoffs?
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Hahaha I mean, if I spent the last month making fun of people for freaking out about our make the playoff percentage dropping to 97%, I probably can't turn around and start eyeing the 98.4% chance of the Brewers winning the division.
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If we bank 9 or 10 of them they might give us 2?
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Magic Number: 13
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My bad!
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In 7 years with the Cubs Heyward put up 7.2 fWAR. In three years with the Cubs, Dansby has put up 12.5 fWAR.
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I've got .463 currently. .452 going into today (28/62) and then another 3/5 on top of that.
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I don't really buy into the streaky thing normally, guys aren't going to 1/4 every day, but even I'll admit that Happ has his ups and downs, which makes it even more hilarious that he's essentially a metronome when it comes to full year production. 2022: .271/.342/.440, .339 wOBA, 122 wRC 2023: .248/.360/.431, .345 wOBA, 119 wRC 2024: .243/.341/.441, .341 wOBA, 121 wRC 2025: .243/.346/..426, .337 wOBA, 118 wRC
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We have to go back two starts for one where he gave up less than 4 (7 IP, 2 ER). As someone who relies on a certain level of metrics (K, BB, LOB rates, BABIP, etc) but is a little out of depth in terms of looking at actual pitch level performance (velocity, pitch grades, etc), the numbers are concerning because he just stopped striking people out. BABIP is normal, LOB rate is fine, he just stopped putting people away. He pitched like a top 15 guy through like August 15th (10th in fWAR through that date, 6th in ERA, 25th in xFIP), and now YTD he's 15th in fWAR, 13th in ERA, 34th in xFIP. I think that overall numbers are pretty indicative of who he is, a good not great starter. But Jameson Taillon is probably bad. He's not pitching strong, he's overly reliant on defense. He has the fifth lowest BABIP of anyone with over 110 innings and he's barely holding onto a sub-4.00 ERA.
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A quarter of the season? For the guy with two starts coming off injury and a 5/4 K/BB ratio in 10.1 IP in those starts? Matt Boyd has a better FIP and xFIP in his last 7 starts than Taillon's last 7 starts. And was obviously significantly better than he was before those starts.
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I think even a diminished form of Matt Boyd is better than Taillon. And then there's the possibilities that he's purposely dialing it back a notch, that he's getting unlucky in the way that just called up Horton was in terms of not putting guys away, etc. Relying on short term trends over full season performance is not the right way to manage a baseball team.
