squally1313

Think the pitching coach who's name I am bizarrely blanking on right now said 85 pitches, which is basically the same thing. Edit: Hottovy

road split against an over .500 is very far from the worst outcome

Hot take: Tucker's going to overpass PCA in fWAR by the ASB. (the correct answer is still PCA)

Bulls trading the 45th pick for the 55th pick and cash is fun. Anytime you can receive 'cash' in a deal, you have to do that.

Yeah unless we're like, changing the sample group to just be big market teams, calling 83-90 wins 'mediocre' is just not really how that word works.

I don't really have a sense of what Keller would cost. Baseball Trade Value (grain of salt) has him with about as much value as Shaw, and as much as he's been struggling, that seems pretty steep. As mentioned a couple times above, I would like someone in this ilk (and would be fine with going worse/cheaper) immediately to give us some cushion in the rotation heading into the ASB, but I'm worried he's in the middle ground where he's better than an innings eater but not at the level to be a difference maker in the playoffs. Pairing him with Bednar and reworking your strategy into a Bednar/Brown/Horton-featured bullpen of death is appealing, as is the idea of getting those guys into a pennant race/full stadiums for the first time in their career, as is the idea of getting them into a organization with significantly more resources on the developmental side. But I just am not letting myself believe we're going to get this Matt Boyd for 30 starts and then into October, and Shota was real shaky to start the year. We need someone better than Keller eventually.

Offense YTD: 3rd in wRC, 2nd in baserunning, 6th in defense, 3rd in fWAR Offense in June (with all these black holes in the lineup): 11th in wRC, 5th in baserunning, 6th in defense, 10th in fWAR Pitching YTD: 16th in ERA, 17th in FIP, 21st in xFIP, 18th in fWAR Pitching in June: 1th in ERA, 22nd in FIP, 24th in xFIP, 24th in fWAR All resources should be going to improving the pitching staff.

Well, yeah, the youngest guy there is Liberatore who we already saw. Mathews as mentioned above and then I guess Tink Hence (22 yo, injured in spring training but more than handled AA last year and has made one very good start there) are theoretical options to give the rotation a boost if they wanted to dump one of the low K guys (Mikolas, Fedde, Pallente), but to your point no one with the AAA track record that Horton has, and even more to your point Horton has had more success in the majors than most of the top pitching prospects.

Quinn Mathews was regarded as a much better prospect than Horton going into this year (32 v 79 per FG), but he seems to have basically developed the yips at AAA. He was drafted as a crafty, high ceiling college arm and then added a bunch of velocity and pretty much dominated A, high A, and AA last year over 22 starts. Then he got to AAA, walked 14 guys in 17 innings, and so far this season he's walked 30 in 32. If they really wanted to go for it this year he's probably their best trade chip, but don't think he's near the point where they could feel comfortable giving him crucial starts down the stretch.

If I can nitpick a little, Boyd having 12 strikeouts in his last 4 starts (23 innings) is a little concerning. I say this because, and I mean this as a compliment to him and an indictment of the team, he’s pretty clearly our game one starter at the moment.

Little bit of loud contact but we’ve got a good cushion and are already through their top 3 hitters again

Elite middle infield defense is such a luxury

I mean, no, you're not wrong. The Cubs have played at a 94 win pace so far this year (wth the 10th hardest SOS). Not to repeat myself from the other thread, but I don't think anyone saw them as a 94 win team going into the year, and I don't think anyone sees meaningful improvements that would change the original assertion (PCA moves it up, Steele moves it down, etc). Thankfully, the wins are already banked and you can't take them away, and playing the rest of the year as the team most people thought they were (high 80s win total) gets you to a 90+ win team.

Brain dumping here because last night's game sucked and then it was hot as hell in our house so I lingered on it more than I/anyone should. We're 79 games in, and I think, though the particulars have changed a little, my opinion of the true talent level of the team as currently constructed is largely unchanged from what it was going into the season, which is that it's roughly an 88 win team. PCA found another level, but it's important to remember that the FG projections loved him (like 4.5-5 fWAR if I remember), and I think that step up is more or less offset by losing Steele. My analysis of the rest of the offense hasn't changed much based on first half performance. Horner/Suzuki/Swanson are all trending to be worth between 3 and 4 wins, Busch a shade under 3, Happ had a slow start but I still think he's the same player going forward. Carson Kelly is still Just Carson Kelly, but we were able to bank some wins off of his Barry Bonds stint, which is nice.Pitching is, minus Steele, overall the same for me too. Horton is better than I thought, but I'm downgrading Shota a little based on what we saw earlier in the year. Bullpen is So anyways, 88 win team. Split the next two games, as an 88 win team should, and you're looking at 47-34 at the halfway point. Another 44 wins in the second half gets us to 91. Do I think that's enough to win the division? Pretty definitively yes. It requires the Cardinals and/or Brewers playing at a 93 win pace the rest of the year to overtake us, and I just don't see the talent level there for that to be a reasonable expectation. On the flip side, I think we're still a clear step behind the Dodgers, and probably not quite at the level of the Phillies. There are moves to make to get us to the Phillies level or even better, and I think we should make them, if just to solidify the division chances (the fact that both teams are right there is a little more concerning than simply a two team race). We have the money, we have the prospect capital, we have essentially our whole lineup returning next year (besides, obviously, Tucker). We should lean into this window. The Dodgers will be better, but playoff baseball is stupid and coin flippy and we should maximize our chances at appearances and ideally byes. As for the Jed conversation...as someone who has generally been on his side, I think if he doesn't make it he probably has to go. We usually like to appeal to process over results here and I think the org is in a healthy spot. But I also think we, or at least I, tend to appeal to authority sometimes when moves are made/not made and I don't quite understand the reasoning. "Well this guy looks like he sucks, but Jed's found talent in these spots before, etc" and I think after a hypothetical three years of missing the playoffs, you almost have to do the opposite. I look at the overall decisions/process and see a (flawed) playoff team, but....you have to actually make them at some point. Three seasons of some level of 'going for it' is a large enough sample size that the process over results thing starts to lose a little authority.

Which pitch is seiya going to get screwed on

First and third and one out for a strikeout prone LHB vs a tough LHP is not a guaranteed run

5’10”, 260 lb right fielder dives into the netting to make the play. Sure.

Christ ump

Yeah I know there are very valid logistical/contractual reasons against this, but if we can have Brown simultaneously learn a third pitch while also not accruing any innings for like, a month, that would be fantastic. Easy to say you can just throw him into the bullpen when he looks fixed, but....Colin Rea still exists and starters break a lot.

Hodge up Brown down

Mets 1-9, though it's probably pretty likely that those fans are actually jumping off bridges. (Tigers are actually 5-5, same as Cubs, but their subreddit as far as I can tell is just them being pumped about Javy being the leading CF vote getting for the ASG, which is pretty amazing/sweet. The Baez/PCA connections are insane.)

Your goalposts are just constantly on wheels huh

This guy seems cool

Donovan Solano career wRC: 98 carson Kelly career wRC: 89

Hahaha yeah the dude who JOed in a parking lot hit multiple home runs this series.