squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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Yeah. Bibee (tomorrow's starter) was a good pitcher last year (26th in fWAR, better than Shota as a comparison) but his strikeout rate is down from 9.7 to 7.8 this year, so hopefully that continues. Luis Ortiz (Thursday) is pretty mediocre in a 'worse metric version of Ben Brown but without the horrendous BABIP luck' way.
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Gavin Williams isn't very good and their offense is Bad. Don't let Ramirez go nuclear and it should be fairly easy to keep them in check. Per the FG starting lineup, they feature: a DH (batting second) with a lower OBP than Dansby and only 20 more points of slugging Carlos Santana batting cleanup with a lower OBP and SLG than Nico Hoerner Lane Thomas batting fifth with a .168/.250/.265 slash line Nolan Jones batting seventh with a .219/.305/.326 slash line (to be fair, vastly underperforming his xwOBA) Bo Naylor batting ninth with a .168/.272/.359 slash line
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Jackson Holliday maybe too? 208 PAs last year (Shaw is currently at 200) with a 62 wRC. This year he's at 104 wRC and underperforming his xwOBA by 24 points. To be fair, there are probably examples that go the other way. It's baseball, thousands have failed, thousands have succeeded. But he stands a reasonable chance of improving, and his baseline right now isn't fatal for the team success. Colin Rea, on the other hand, probably isn't going to suddenly improve. Horton and Brown and Boyd aren't going to magically generate a ton of stamina and long term arm strength that will make you comfortable about leaning on them for the next 4 months. I can't see a bullpen guy suddenly turning into a 12 K/9 monster. Sort those problems out first and see where you're at in a few weeks on the (very good) offensive side of things.
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Question of the week: Who is your first-half MVP?
squally1313 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
by the end of June* -
The offensive difference is pretty striking
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Daryle Ward spent two years on the cubs bench and his second year he had a 79 wRC while providing absolutely nothing else. This is weird.
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Did he not look 39 last year
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Because I want to lean on larger sample sizes whenever possible. He didn’t fall off a cliff before his age 37, 38, and 39 season. He’s underperforming his expected wOBA by 54 points in a 120 PA sample this year. to be fair, at this point I’m pretty indifferent. Him, Jonathan Long, whoever…it’s not going to change the future prospects of the team. People wanting him cut after April were definitely overreacting.
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Do you think it doesn’t
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Kinda feel like Steele is about as close as you can get to Valdez, to be fair
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I’ll take a different approach. Colin Rea sucks because of his entire body of work, and what he did yesterday, which included getting fairly lucky BABIP wise but also giving him credit for zero walks, shouldn’t change your overall view because it was 5 innings. Jameson Taillon is an average pitcher results wise who eats a ton of innings. The contract has been fine, his performance has been fine. Commenting on his overall skill level because of a bloop single and a ground ball single (neither of which scored) is dumb.
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Derwood beat me to it, but the events that led to all the vitriol above: - a 61 mph EV opposite field bloop to paredes - a ground call up the middle - striking out altuve - cam smith fly out to Tucker that didn’t reach the track - ground ball to Dansby for a routine out
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The cubs got the fifth best offensive player in baseball this year locked up for his age 23-28 seasons for 41 games of Javier Baez, but yes, we are inevitably cursed.
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We’re…kinda closer to that than I think most people realize? PCA, Busch, Shaw, Amaya are all here and cheap, Nico is somewhat cost controlled, and then Brown and Horton in the rotation. You can argue about individual abilities or whatever, but 48-34 with all those guys playing prominent roles.
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Going to be an annoying series. Astros are very, very good. Paredes and Smith have been good (and will be discussed here ad nauseam). Figure out a way to win one and move on.
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I'll lean towards the side of defending the writers putting in all the work and producing all the content over repeatedly criticizing them for content you clearly don't care about. Also as a heads up, maybe don't check out the Social Forum.
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I'm sorry the website made you click on and read the article.
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96 win pace at the halfway point. 48th win came on July 21st last year. June 25th for the 2016 team, which is pretty wild. 48-25 at that point, but still.
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Road split against a good team. Totally fine with that.
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Do you think Gorman is going to hit a 96 mph/41 LA home run to the left field corner or the right field corner
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1. Agreed on the clubhouse stuff. 2. Sorry, but 49 PAs is not going to convince me that Reese McGuire at age 30 figured out how to be a good hitter. I mean, I guess there's a chance he cracked the code to maintaining a 27% HR/FB rate? But otherwise there's probably a reason he's always graded out well defensively and still couldn't find a consistent big league job, and I mean that in actual baseball reasons not weird parking lot reasons.
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I'm guessing the answer here is that he stays instead of Turner. Which is the wrong answer.
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Would prefer more offense at some point here. Hopefully Cardinals are in getaway mode, but 9 more outs with a low strikeout bullpen is just asking for a BABIP disaster, and that's before considering the concept of the Cardinals doing annoying Cardinals things
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76 pitches, 5 scoreless innings from Shota. Pretty much all you can ask for (besides more Ks). Thinking he starts the 6th but we'll see.
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Carson Kelly single: .130 xBA Matt Shaw lineout: .740 xBA Tucker groundout: .430 xBA Giveth, taketh away, etc.
