squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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Boyd getting more lucky than good here
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Well if you had to run, then theoretically the guy on first would also have to run, so it’s a pretty easy 1-6-3 DP on a blocked ball or if catchers just learn how to drop it immediately. And if you don’t have to, then it’s a weird judgment on leaving the box I guess? I think I’m with you that a strikeout is just a strikeout and you shouldn’t have a chance to get first, but if you’re going to make that an option you want to avoid the sort of defensive manipulation I’m talking about.
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A. Yes, it is dumb. B. It’s so the defense can’t manufacture a double play right? Similar to infield fly.
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Lost in the shuffle is that PCA makes the play that Chourio didn’t on Busch’s hit with his eyes closed
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That's not to say he doesn't have value by the way. I get frustrated when I see people complain about having one below average hitter in a line up of nine, because that's just not how math works. Every team is going to get significant innings from guys like Assad (and worse!). Based on his career numbers with a 2024 lean he's probably an upgrade over Rea. I was hoping we'd have a bunch of cushion by now and guys like him and Rea could spell Horton, Boyd, etc. While obviously not the case in the division, we're 5.5 clear of a playoff spot (and 96% to make the playoffs per FG) so it's not some full on battle for October just yet. And I think, if you have the luxury of extra healthy starting pitchers, you want to see if their stuff can play up in short bursts (Assad's did in 2023). But I'm going to be real upset if we get any sort of talk about how the deadline improvements are coming from within. Assad eats innings, any October situation where he's a starter or in a leverage situation is a failure on Jed's part.
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He has a 1.13 HR/9 in his major league career and it's trending in the wrong direction (0.96, 1.07, 1.22 from 2022 to 2024). From 2022 to 2025 the HR/9 rates are 1.09, 1.23, 1.14, 1.14, so over that whole stretch he's basically completely average and he's trending towards being worse than average. What he has done is maintain a LOB% of over 80% every year, where the league average is between 71.9% and 72.6%. The only thing I've been able to find about pitchers outperforming a normal LOB% is that high strikeout pitchers can sometimes do it, but he's been below average there as well. From there it becomes a little more theoretical. Does he buckle down and try harder with guys on? Does he pitch unusually well from the stretch? If either of those are the case, why doesn't he just do that all the time? Or...have the baserunners he's given up been beneficially spaced out to avoid runners crossing the plate in a way that is almost certainly out of his hands and not something you'd want to rely on continuing going forward? I lean towards the latter.
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Chicago Cubs Are "Very Interested" In MacKenzie Gore
squally1313 replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Shaw for Gore and then like Suarez or Castro to fill that spot is something that makes sense in a video game world but realistically it's too many moving pieces and too much uncertainty with in-demand players to risk leaving yourself a big hole in a contending year. You could maybe build something around Shaw and whatever else it takes for Ryan and Castro (maybe plus a pen arm, if you really want to do a one stop shop) to eliminate the complexity of multiple deals, but probably still too video game-y. -
Carlos Carrasco is almost certainly dead but the Yankees (I believe) DFAed him a few days ago and the Brewers just paid some cash to pick him up so get ready for him to make some annoying 4 IP, 2 K, 2 BB, 6 hit, 2 ER start in game two of the doubleheader in a few weeks. Edit: lol ignore me I'm an idiot it was the Braves, so who cares
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I thought about linking this and then I read into the comments and most of the top ones are like 'the Rangers are in the playoffs right now' and the author basically admitted it didn't make a ton of sense.
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I was going to bring this up in another thread, but unless things get real drastic in the next couple days, I don't really see a way out of Colin Rea as one of your five starters at least until September or so. I figure the first starter is to punt Brown down to the bullpen/back to AAA, and then the second one is probably going to be to give Horton a bit of an extended break, either through a fake injury/demotion shutdown or by putting him in the bullpen. Maybe you could pick one of those guys to piggyback with Rea to lessen the reliance on him not taxing the bullpen, but think we're stuck with him until either Taillon comes back or October.
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fun horsefeathers game
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Royals (Lugo) vs Cubs (Rea): 7/23/25, 1:20pm
squally1313 replied to Brandon Glick's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Thank you. It's not like, fun to think about, because you want to play up the intensity and drama and whatever else of Playoff Baseball. But it's almost entirely the same game. The one difference you can point to is the additional days off, which lets you lean more on your good pitchers and avoid having to use your bad ones in leverage situations. But like...that's certainly not a uniquely bad thing for the Cubs. It's probably a good thing (see the stat above about Shota/Boyd starts v everyone else starts), but also everyone else gets to do that too, so it mostly balances out. Offense goes down because you face better pitchers more frequently, but that's true across the board. There isn't teams built for playoffs vs teams built for the regular season. There's just varying degrees of good teams playing a five game series of a game where winning 6 out of 10 times is considered elite. Roll the dice. -
That was just a 'spurt' guys. This is so dumb. What if I create a sample size that starts immediately after he played good? Seems pretty obvious he's bad if you look at that way!
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Since the start of 2022 (which was the year before they gave him the extension with the NTC), Happ is 12th in baseball in outfield fWAR
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Only six more pieces and we’ll be really good
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We only cut down sample sizes if the player was good in April, you know this.
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Yeah but so would any theoretical replacement pitchers. The defense we have moves all of our pitchers up the spectrum in terms of results based performance, but that doesn’t change my desire for improvement.
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I expect Colin Rea to pitch bad in his starts because he’s generally bad at things directly within a pitchers control (strikeouts, generating soft contact, generating ground balls). I am happy with the results thus far, but I don’t expect them to continue because historically people with his profile generally (not always!) do not perform well.
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He’s certainly no Jacob Misier-whatever
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Yes, why didn’t we use our massive resources to…draft Paul Skenes first overall. This is uniquely a cubs problem. Linking your arguments, it’s weird how there are only five pitchers, but at least one of them is a brewer, as they are the only team that can win the WS, which is backed by zero statistical analysis (Boyd has been better than peralta by every metric this year). It’s almost like you crafted a narrative that is as negative as possible.
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I’m sure when the cubs win 2 games in a row he’ll look at the positives and reassess. it’s weird how ‘emotional’ is just meant to mean ‘exceedingly negative’
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Got it makes sense
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Why haven’t the teams that are capable of winning the World Series won more games
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I’m already worried about how frustrated I’m going to be with this game, so I can’t imagine how that might play out for this thread if it goes the way I think it will.
