squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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Bullpen loves walking the first guy they see recently.
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Very impressive stuff from Shota, and all the Ks are very encouraging. The advanced stats didn't love, probably still don't see him as an ace, but my meatball-y take is that he's got an extra gear and he'd find an extra level in a playoff start.
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I didn't really think about how the Astros traded for Correa to fill third base instead of trying Smith there, but....a little weird right? His offensive path to being a successful player gets a lot harder when putting up negative defense in the corner outfield.
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I don't think so. If they would have traded away someone like Brown or Horton or whatever, you could talk me into them maybe rethinking it with the knowledge that the rest of the offense would step up and they could hold onto the pitching. But this was offense for offense, I think they wanted the game changing bat over another 3ish fWAR guy.
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Yeah it's probably not a perfect analogy, but I remember Rory's press conference after he won the Masters. He had a one shot lead going into 18 and missed a 6 foot par putt to bogey and end up in the playoffs. Had all the weight on his shoulders with blowing the lead and all the history, said his caddy pulled him aside and was like 'well, we would have taken this position at the start of the week'. Went in and birdied the first playoff hole (the same hole he just bogeyed) to win. Has it been fun lately? No, beyond just that it's fun to care about late season baseball and it certainly beats the alternative of running out the strong. But it's a good team, and none of these other NL teams on paper look anywhere close to unbeatable. Go get it.
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I feel like the 2023-2024 teams set out to be solid up and down the line up without a real weak spot, and when things were going good in April/May this year it felt like we finally achieved that while also simultaneously adding the elite top end production (Tucker, PCA levelling up). The last month or so has been a good reminder of what it used to be, but there's just too much history of performance for guys like Suzuki and Tucker for me to be too worried.
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There's no team wide statistic that says the offense is struggling over a prolonged stretch though. Like, there just isn't. Maybe it has something to do with the league-wide batting average in 2016 being 9 points higher, and the OPS being 21 points higher? Mediocre baseball is better than bad baseball, especially when coupled with the prior run of really good baseball.
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Peaked at 71.8% on May 10th last year. A year ago today we were at 5.3% To Andy's point, on September 6, 2023 we were at 92.4% before going going 7-15 the rest of the year. As rough as it seems right now, we've played nowhere near that bad.
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The Cubs lost playoff series 41 and 22 years ago, and as such you should remain eternally mopey and pessimistic. No other team loses playoff series.
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I mean my god
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lol I don't know if it's good that I would put 'can beat out shittily hit GBs' as one of Dansby's current top skills, but it sure is appreciated. lol nevermind christ
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Tucker has like a 900 OPS in his last 10 games.
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horsefeathers is the game already over?
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Ben Brown, welcome to the game 3 starter role. Yeah, the bar is pretty low.
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eight dimensional chess from Jed to trade for injured goods to force the Ben Brown renaissance
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That's also more HRs than Dansby had last year (in 138 more PAs). The defensive metrics are down, opportunities appear to be the same so could be some decline there from his very elite level, but if he could get back the 25 HR power that would go a long way to aging gracefully.
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Happy and Swanson were chasing a combined 76 points of xwOBA going into today. Happ at 104 wRC after the single and Dansby at 98 wRC after the dong.
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Getting a little bit of perverse joy at how quickly the bad karma of not getting a starter came back to bite Jed
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Can they move to that concept when we aren’t down four bullpen arms
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Yep. Also, picking today to criticize Shaw, when he went like 0/79 in early July, then got a week off to reset and work on things, and has since gone 326/340/674 in 47 PAs is pretty weird timing. (alright I get it, this selective sample size thing is fun)
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I get the theory behind it, but it starts to strain a little bit when you use a 9 game sample for Carson Kelly to show he's in a slump, but, for example, Kyle Tucker has a 144 wRC over his last 9 games. Like, in Carson Kelly's last 27 games, he has a 152 wRC. I don't think you can claim both are 'currently' slumping in this scenario.
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Yeah I don't know if it's a $500m skill or whatever, but there's something really impressive about a clearly struggling guy still putting up a .365ish OBP in July. Pretty much everyone else (with the exception of maybe Hoerner)....when they slump, the floor is just so much lower. But Tucker just decides to put up a 25% walk rate and 2/1 BB/K ratio over the last two weeks until he figures out his swing/his finger gets better/whatever.
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I'd love to see if you could (at least temporarily) try to turn Brown in a short relief monster. The K and BB numbers are a step in that direction. Seems redundant to carry three lefties in the pen, and we're theoretically going to have some combination of Rea, Soroka, Assad, Taillon, Wicks all around to slot into the 4-5 and long relief roles.
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Are Soroka's third time through numbers uniquely bad or is he just getting the same penalty that most other pitchers get? We've got a temporary problem of Rea and Soroka going back to back if Counsell is going to have tight leashes on both. If we're trying to our relievers going three games in four days, we're down Palencia, Keller, Kittredge, and Thielbar tonight. Pomeranz with 20 pitches yesterday is probably fine, and then you've got Brasier, Rogers, and whatever is going on with Ben Brown (hasn't pitched since last Sunday). The Reds lineup as laidout by the FG Depth Chart page seems pretty easy to gameplan for. Elly sucks against lefties so you can line up Rogers and Pomeranz against the top and let Brasier/Brown deal with the bottom. This is about as good as Lodolo has been (1.32/2.08/2.77 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 9.88 K/9, 0.66 BB/9 the last four starts including against the Dodgers, the Mets, and a hot Miami team) so this one might be tough. But we're also good, so we should go win.
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do you think home/road splits are real or are you just using them to make him look worse than he's actually been?
