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squally1313

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Everything posted by squally1313

  1. squally1313
    I don't know if I've ever seen so many balls (from one team) in one game within 5 feet of the outfield lines at Wrigley.
  2. squally1313
    Taillon/Wicks piggyback, also have Brasier and whatever Tom Cosgrove. Would really like to avoid Kittredge, three of the last four days already.
  3. squally1313
    My cynical, but somewhat honest attempt: On May 24th the Brewers were 25-28. That was right before their first long winning streak, and since then they've gone 54-17. Over that stretch, they have very good pitching. 4th in K rate, 12th in walk rate, 8th in GB% (Cubs: 28th, 1st, 20th) very good offense: 5th in BB rate, 4th in K rate, 13th in ISOP, 1st in baserunning (Cubs: 18th, 6th, 12th, 6th) very good defense: 3rd in FG rating for defense (Cubs: 4th) High level analysis of stuff mostly in their control. Very good team all around. Elite in seemingly nothing, and outside of K rate I don't see a whole lot that would separate them from the Cubs. But then: Offensive BABIP: 1st (by ten points over second). (Cubs: 29th, 50 points behind) Defensive BABIP: 2nd (Cubs: 1st) Strand Rate: 1st (Cubs: 6th) Very good overall baseball and absolutely elite 'luck' performance will get you historical runs. Edit: To clarify/reiterate, these rankings are just over this historic Brewers run. Bringing in full season numbers would be obviously more generous to the Cubs and less generous to the Brewers.
  4. squally1313
    Having to go to your best reliever in the 6th inning against the 8 hitter in a game your ace started that you were up 5-0 with a game later tonight isn't ideal, I wouldn't think. Your best reliever walking Joey horsefeathers Ortiz on four pitches, also not ideal.
  5. squally1313
    Us with the most injured starting pitcher of the last 5 years
  6. squally1313
    Also, separate complaint, but if you're going to bury these games on a team owned channel and then not come to an agreement with basically all the major cable providers and then also have your app not be available on the Samsung interface so that I'm somehow sitting here watching this on your app on my phone, maybe don't have the game crash out 4 times before the 6th inning.
  7. squally1313
    Small sample size and everything, but their struggling pitcher eating innings because of the DH implications should just not be able to go through our 2-3-4 like that the third time through the order. Can't happen.
  8. squally1313
    I understand he hit a home run today and they are incapable of making outs, but Yelich has an 88 wRC against LHP this year. That was the expected result.
  9. squally1313
    Well, looks like I was spot on in my Castro criticisms from earlier.
  10. squally1313
    Caissie could have thrown Contreras out at first base if he wouldn't have caught that, but the whole hustle thing is uniquely a Kyle Tucker issue.
  11. squally1313
    The league leading BABIP doesn't hurt. We actually have a better K rate than they do on the year....they are better on most of the per pitch metrics (out of zone swing, contact, etc), but it's generally a situation where they are 2nd or 3rd and we're 5th or 6th.
  12. squally1313
    2nd and 3rd, two outs, 8 hitter up, know how this goes
  13. squally1313
    Criticism where criticism is due, PCA has to get a ball in the air there.
  14. squally1313
    I bit my tongue on asking why Willi Castro was hitting 5th against a righty and, of course, here we are
  15. squally1313
    .710 xBA for Busch (fly out) .850 xBA for Happ, HR in 17 parks (double) Solid walk from Seiya Almost assuredly zero runs.
  16. squally1313
    Got it. Think we're on the same page. Most logical explanation to me is that it's generally an injury that will linger but you can still play through as it heals, he obviously didn't struggle right away but as the healing process continued, swelling went down, etc something got thrown off physically, which then spiraled into (over)corrections and approach issues and confidence issues and whatever else got us to here. But obviously just a guess.
  17. squally1313
    I believe the consensus was that the injury occurred on a slide on June 1, but happy to retract if I have that wrong.
  18. squally1313
    It did for June.
  19. squally1313
    Cosgrove up, Little and Hollowell down, assume the last piece there is Taillon activated.
  20. squally1313
    Found this link on reddit on a Tucker discussion (spoilers because it's massive). This is since July 3rd, guessing you could probably make it look better or worse by playing with the starting point. For me, it shows a few things are true. This is a results based business and his results have been absolutely terrible, and the time off is probably the best move for his own sanity (and everyone else's, seemingly). He is simultaneously not performing anywhere near what expectations for him are, and also getting very, very unlucky. To the extent you buy into xwOBA (your mileage may vary), Kyle Tucker in the (likely) worst slump of his career has expected batted ball metrics that are basically on par with what you'd expect Ian Happ or PCA (or a 2025 Cody Bellinger) to do (understanding those are different paths to the same overall, .335/.340ish wOBA outcome), and that's before his 30 SB pace and his passable corner outfield defense. Throw in a likely injury, and if this is the floor....it's a pretty appealing overall package.
  21. squally1313
    I actually appreciate the feedback. I don't think of what I'm doing as being a cop in that I don't intend to come off as being like 'no, shut up, stop offering your opinions'. People come on and give their opinions, and I assume they do it on a message board and not twitter because they want interaction. I'm probably not nearly as good as some of the other analytics guys (someone like 1908, as an example) in terms of getting my message across of like 'actually if you look at it this way, maybe you'd see it differently'. Can probably get better at that. But I'm totally fine with people disagreeing with my (increasingly dumb looking) optimistic takes and saying so, either by directly replying or by implicitly ('I was told...') or explicitly calling me out. It's all part of the experience. There's, to my knowledge, a lot more 'meatball'-y places to go and I always liked how this has been the 'least bad' Cubs message board on the internet. Now, someone using their Philly background to justify booing a Cubs player and then immediately going to comments like 'what are you their mother, let the adults talk' should be called out, in my opinion.
  22. squally1313
    What sort of interaction do you prefer on a message board, especially in a game where we are lost 7-0.
  23. squally1313
    I'm well aware it's the definition of insanity to keep doing this, especially at this exact moment, so, apologies, but in that 37 game stretch you're citing, the Cubs offense is 21st in wRC and 15th in overall fWAR. (edit: can't help it, and 28th in BABIP)
  24. squally1313
    I mean, the Cubs will end the day either tied or alone in the first wild card spot and haven't lost more than 3 games in a row all year. Rapid and complete probably aren't the words I would use to describe it.
  25. squally1313
    'Where I'm from, Philly, which has famously good and well respected and not problematic fans'
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