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squally1313

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Everything posted by squally1313

  1. squally1313
    Are you sure? I'm almost positive that there's an 'h' at the end of it.
  2. squally1313
    Nico got 10 in 2022, but sure. I think it's more likely he hits 13 than it is he gets anywhere close to Ichiro's .372 BA. Insane run for Ichiro back then.
  3. squally1313
    How long does it take walk rate to start becoming a useful metric, because, man, a .380 OBP version of Nico is a legitimate 6 win player. Just scrolled through best individual offensive seasons by fWAR since 2000, I believe the best season of anyone who hit less than 20 home runs and wasn't a catcher was 2013 Matt Carpenter. .318/.392/.481, 11 HRs, good for 7.2 fWAR. I think hoping for those numbers is probably foolish, but Nico is going to have about 40 more steals and be an elite defender.
  4. squally1313
    Generally agreed. In terms of Brown, the overall, still small sample size numbers have been fine. 10.2 innings, 9.3 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, getting better luck on HR/FB (9.1% v 15.5% last year) and BABIP (.259 v .347). 4.22 ERA, 3.46 FIP. You give Assad and Rea the edge on 'pitchability' or the less metric skills, you give Brown the edge on pure stuff, I'd say at this point, they're all about equal. Brown is also bringing a third pitch into the mix this year. In 2025 he was 56% 4 seam, 40% curveball. So far this year he's at 44% 4 seam, 36% curve, 16% sinker. He probably deserves a shot at the starter spot at some point, if only just for attrition at the top. But think he's needed in the role he's currently in and it would be a pretty significant drop off to stretch him out in AAA and have to either make do with a bunch of short relievers behind 5 starters that aren't going deep, or go to like...Cam Sanders or Vince Velasquez. Any set back from Boyd or Steele and you need to start coming up with another plan here, but in the short term it's....fine.
  5. squally1313
    We definitely have, so no need to rehash. My small clarification isn't so much a stars and scrubs thing as it is like, are there enough balls in play for 4 guys to rack up 2 defensive wins a piece. There conceptually seems to me to be a limit on how good defensively a team can be. Setting aside a 75ish difference in PAs, Schwarber put up 4.9 fWAR last year, Nico put up 4.8. The math probably says that 9 Schwarbers wins as many games as 9 Hoerners. But I think you ideally want half and half. Probably splitting hairs though.
  6. squally1313
    And like, as much as I'd love to run some sort of Baseball Mogul experiment on putting nine Nico Hoerner's in a lineup...we're likely not getting elite or even comfortably above average offense from Nico, PCA, and Swanson. Bregman should stay above average but a 125 wRC is ambitious and also good for 36th in baseball based on last year. Busch is great but the projections seem him as another 120-125 guy. I know you stack wins however you can get them, but....does Busch/Bregman at 120 and 7 guys who can run and field and put up 100-105 really get you that much? I keep going back to like, if the ultimate plan was to play Suzuki in RF this year anyways, would we have been better off with Shaw at 3B, Schwarber at DH(essentially identical contract to Bregman) and Ballesteros as the man without a spot/likely trade bait. It's an easier fit to find the guy that works between Shaw/Rojas/Ramirez/Triantos, Ballesteros gets to work on his catching in AAA. Just a thought experiment, and it's probably just watching early April baseball, but worried that we are indefinitely missing an actual big bat.
  7. squally1313
    If the value they're ascribing to Rojas is in terms of 'value he can provide to the major league team in 2029 and onward', I would prefer they run a present value discount onto that and prioritize wins that come sooner.
  8. squally1313
    You don't think committing $316m to other infielders in the last 4 months (to slot next to the other infielder with 4 years left) says anything about how much they do (or don't) value Rojas?
  9. squally1313
    Yeah that all makes sense. This is probably an obvious statement, but I think if you were to play out the careers of Alcantara, Rojas, and Shaw, there's probably one above average corner OF bat in there, and there's temptation to let Shaw do his Zobrist thing in the majors, Alcantara to keep destroying AAA, and Rojas stay on his progression and keep all the cards in your hand. But like, the current team is going to need (slash already needs) help, and those are the guys with the biggest gap between 'trade value' and 'value to the current team'. They've started turning the corner and building the roadmap for the rest of the decade, but think tough decisions need to be made on this group soon.
  10. squally1313
    This is probably a General Cubs question more than a Minor League discussion, but I struggle with the concept of taking anywhere from a reasonably ready to developing infield player (that Shaw to Triantos group), and thinking it's the best use of resources/plan of attack to be like 'alright, now go learn outfield'. Especially when none of these guys are like, super bat first, maybe they can fake it in the infield for a few years type pedigrees. The average wRC at 2B last year was 90, at 3B was 96, LF was 102, RF was 105. Feels like you're handcuffing one of their most valuable talents (infield defense) while also asking them to move up the spectrum offensively. Or said another way, maybe: if we put Shaw's offensive profile at a 96 wRC hitter, ie a league average hitter for what was his position, isn't his value somewhat equal to a league average RF (assuming team control, etc)? And then if your goal is to have above average production offensively, why not just go get the (yes, hypothetical) 105 guy instead of telling Shaw he now has to improve by 20 points instead of 10.
  11. squally1313
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-last-place-cubs-are-injured-but-all-is-nowhere-near-lost-yet/ This is good for talking Cubs fans off the ledge while still pointing out some of the flaws. Cubs were projected to have the 19th best rotation in baseball going into the year. With Horton on the shelf for presumably 2026 but Boyd likely expected back, they fall all the way to....21st. It wasn't a good situation before, it's a slightly worse situation now, but this team, for better or for worse, was always going to live and die by the offense and the defense. That said, the first ten games count, and we've got to make up 4 games. Positive regression here, negative regression up there, hopefully both. But probably puts us on pretty even playing ground going forward.
  12. squally1313
    Eh. Walk and K rates are still elite, xwOBA is over 100 points higher. Wasn't specifically trying to call out someone with a long injury history. Just the insanity of looking at a 10 game sample.
  13. squally1313
    Well, we all knew this day was coming eventually. But Ronald Acuna looks like he's becoming one of the worst outfielders in the game and a total deadweight on the Braves roster.
  14. squally1313
    Unfortunately there's not a lot of data that shows he's capable of doing that. Setting aside that we rode Cade Horton and his low K rate and unsustainable BABIP way past any thought out plan last year and hey, look how that went, maybe we should try it again with a guy who hasn't been as good.
  15. squally1313
    'Cubs fully expect this to be a minimum IL stint for Boyd. The issue has been in his recovery and they feel a little break will allow him to regain full health.' - Taylor McGregor per Twitter Reassuring, I guess, but probably raises more questions than it answers.
  16. squally1313
    FG has Assad as the corresponding move and he hasn't pitched since 4/2, so would be ready to go tomorrow and then...Rea on Wednesday? Going to need the bats to arrive, and quickly.
  17. squally1313
    This is almost certainly a dumb question but these are 9 inning games right? The 7.5 over under for the night game feels real low with shota on the mound
  18. squally1313
    Something that happens very frequently happens people with multiple thousands of message board posts a year try to score internet points by saying that they, at some point, tangentially predicted this Is very tiring
  19. squally1313
    Man, last year he at least waited until August before writing off a 92 win team. These are just facts guys.
  20. squally1313
    Ian Happ still sucks
  21. squally1313
    The other way to cope with this is to just lean into his pretty pedestrian projections and decide the drop off isn’t all that steep.
  22. squally1313
    Wow, congrats man
  23. squally1313
    Horton pulled in the middle of his 5th hitter after motioning for the trainer to come out. Colin Rea in.
  24. squally1313
    Well. That’s not good.
  25. squally1313
    Yeah I mean, splitting hairs. Arguments against that are that I just want Bregman getting more opportunities than Hoerner, and then in that specific arrangement you’re a little easier to pitch to because you can put in a RHP for 2-3-4 and not worry about the three batter minimum.
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