squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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Cubs (Rea) vs Reds (Greene): 9/18/25, 6:15pm
squally1313 replied to Brandon Glick's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
lol spot on
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Cubs (Rea) vs Reds (Greene): 9/18/25, 6:15pm
squally1313 replied to Brandon Glick's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
There's too many teams involved, playing poorly, to say for sure. There are four teams within two games of that last spot (NYM, Arizona, Cincy, SF), and they are a combined 16-24 in their last 40 games. They all keep playing the way they've been playing, and a Reds split would probably put them all into a four way tie. Mets have one more against SD which is theoretically still playing for HFA/the division, then the Nats and home, then they come to Wrigley. As mentioned above, it's really great that the Cubs stayed above the fray because they're going to be tangentially involved in a race that could get pretty interesting here. -
Cubs (Rea) vs Reds (Greene): 9/18/25, 6:15pm
squally1313 replied to Brandon Glick's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Alcantara, McGuire, Ballesteros (try him at first?) for sure. Probably Castro in the middle infield somewhere. Another shot for Santana? -
This is a pretty dumb double standard, but you know what....sure, go Cubs. Stay healthy for another week, maybe even do something dumb like get super hot and scare Milwaukee a little bit. Then let's go flip some coins.
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I don't know guys....the team is 9-5 in September, we have the fourth best record in baseball, I've been watching videos of Happ crying in happiness and everyone else soaking themselves in champagne, but then I remembered that we went 5-8 that one time and it's like....do we even want to make the playoffs?
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Hahaha I mean, if I spent the last month making fun of people for freaking out about our make the playoff percentage dropping to 97%, I probably can't turn around and start eyeing the 98.4% chance of the Brewers winning the division.
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If we bank 9 or 10 of them they might give us 2?
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Magic Number: 13
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My bad!
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In 7 years with the Cubs Heyward put up 7.2 fWAR. In three years with the Cubs, Dansby has put up 12.5 fWAR.
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I've got .463 currently. .452 going into today (28/62) and then another 3/5 on top of that.
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I don't really buy into the streaky thing normally, guys aren't going to 1/4 every day, but even I'll admit that Happ has his ups and downs, which makes it even more hilarious that he's essentially a metronome when it comes to full year production. 2022: .271/.342/.440, .339 wOBA, 122 wRC 2023: .248/.360/.431, .345 wOBA, 119 wRC 2024: .243/.341/.441, .341 wOBA, 121 wRC 2025: .243/.346/..426, .337 wOBA, 118 wRC
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We have to go back two starts for one where he gave up less than 4 (7 IP, 2 ER). As someone who relies on a certain level of metrics (K, BB, LOB rates, BABIP, etc) but is a little out of depth in terms of looking at actual pitch level performance (velocity, pitch grades, etc), the numbers are concerning because he just stopped striking people out. BABIP is normal, LOB rate is fine, he just stopped putting people away. He pitched like a top 15 guy through like August 15th (10th in fWAR through that date, 6th in ERA, 25th in xFIP), and now YTD he's 15th in fWAR, 13th in ERA, 34th in xFIP. I think that overall numbers are pretty indicative of who he is, a good not great starter. But Jameson Taillon is probably bad. He's not pitching strong, he's overly reliant on defense. He has the fifth lowest BABIP of anyone with over 110 innings and he's barely holding onto a sub-4.00 ERA.
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A quarter of the season? For the guy with two starts coming off injury and a 5/4 K/BB ratio in 10.1 IP in those starts? Matt Boyd has a better FIP and xFIP in his last 7 starts than Taillon's last 7 starts. And was obviously significantly better than he was before those starts.
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I think even a diminished form of Matt Boyd is better than Taillon. And then there's the possibilities that he's purposely dialing it back a notch, that he's getting unlucky in the way that just called up Horton was in terms of not putting guys away, etc. Relying on short term trends over full season performance is not the right way to manage a baseball team.
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This is obviously a more condensed time frame, but in Boyd's last two starts last year for Detroit he gave up 15 baserunners in 6.2 innings combined. He then went out and gave up 13 over 11.2 (and one run). I'll lean on that playoff performance over a Wednesday morning matinee against the Pirates.
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Do you think this is a high pressure game?
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The Cubs have faced starting pitching with ERAs of 2.74, 2.03, and 2.81. They have 37 baserunners in 19 innings.
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See todays thread
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I had thrown out there yesterday that the lack of Caissie in Chicago meant the Cubs weren't overly concerned about Tucker, but Suzuki in RF/Ballesteros at DH is another contingency plan I guess, so could be a chance we have a bigger problem here.
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We're not nervous about Hamilton being 34 years old and having had 2 minor league PAs total in the last two years? Just going to stick him in CF? I generally agree with Santana over Ballesteros for the reasons you laid out. Busch is bad enough against LHP and Turner is bad enough against RHP that you want to avoid any late game situation where that comes out and Santana lets you. It would have been nice to see a little more of Happ, Tucker, Suzuki in CF, or someone besides Turner and Busch at first, just to give them a little flexibility around the extreme cases.
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Clinch day is nice but this is Keep Matt Boyd Healthy Day and also, ideally, Get Matt Boyd Back To Elite Day
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Wild card series will be a little tricky with three games in three days but if we can get through that you can lean on them a lot more.
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I want as many pitchers as possible, honestly. Among starters with at least 110 innings (to include Horton), our three theoretical playoff starters rank 52nd, 66th, and 78th in xFIP. They've gotten us to the playoffs, but they aren't Good. Boyd, for example, goes 3.77/4.16/4.80/7.76 in xFIP when looking at times through the order. Shota is pretty neutral but has yet to get past three times through the order. I'd be totally fine with the game plan being 18 batters at most for the starters, which leaves 15-20 for the pen guys each game. Besides, who is Santana or Ballesteros pinch hitting for?
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If I'm doing the calendar math right, I think he's getting a week off after that start, and in theory should have plenty of rest going into it, so should be pretty close to unlimited. WC Series is Tuesday 9/30 - Thursday 10/2. Game one of the DS is Saturday 10/4, which would be Boyd if they sweep and probably Taillon if they don't (because Shota would be on 3 days rest). Either way, that puts Shota in for game 2, which is Monday 10/6, and then Horton for Wednesday 10/8. More days off than I had originally thought, and honestly as a neutral baseball fan don't like the day off on Friday 10/3. It benefits whoever wins the WC series, but I like it better conceptually that the winning team has to get right on the road to play game one the next day.
