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squally1313

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Everything posted by squally1313

  1. squally1313
    Yeah, which, if anything, is probably just going to lead to them leaning harder into their castoff plan. I've given up trying to solve the bullpen. It's the BABIP of roster construction.
  2. squally1313
    The 2024 bullpen got better as the season went on, similar to 2025, just started from a worse spot and didn't get much above average (19th all year, 14th in the second half). I'm fairly comfortable saying the audition method is just The Cubs Method at this point, for better or for worse, and looking at the big money acquisitions last year I don't know if getting a theoretical lockdown arm is a better strategy. It's basically just strength in numbers plus Hottovy magic. Which is...fine, I guess. I just wouldn't allocate a big number to the pen when sorting out the rest of the budget.
  3. squally1313
  4. squally1313
    Certainly see the red flags in Suarez, I just think his profile is so markedly different from everyone else on the team that he would almost balance out the lineup by him being so unbalanced himself, while still giving you a good glove in the field. Alonso hit the piss out of the ball this year, 93.5 EV after a previous career high of 91, 54.4% hard hit% after a previous career high of 47.3%, 8th in baseball in xwOBA. It's probably dumb to have your best two hitters be 1B-only, but if we're looking for 150-200 PAs at first against LHP anyways, it's not as redundant. Having said all that, agree with your last point in that Tucker is by far the best option of the hitters.
  5. squally1313
    Yeah, I think in a vacuum, feel out what kind of pitching you can get for a Shaw-led package, and then feel out what kind of pitching you can get for a Ballesteros/Caissie-led package, pair the return from a Shaw package with Suarez and pair the return from the second package with Alonso, and see which one you like better. Busch Suzuki Happ Suarez/Alonso Dansby PCA Hoerner Shaw/Ballesteros/Caissie Kelly/Amaya
  6. squally1313
    I think it's likely because getting 191 PAs, which would be almost exclusively against LHPs, is probably worse for his development as a potential full time starter than getting 600+ PAs in AAA. Veteran guys for that role just aren't that expensive, and it's pretty unlikely that the salary difference between a different version of Justin Turner or even someone like Goldschmidt and Long is going to make or break other moves.
  7. squally1313
    The Cubs finished second in baseball in outfield fWAR, so I guess the implication here is that....they were supposed to be this good, hence the multiple 'C's?
  8. squally1313
    Matt Shaw and Nico Hoerner ended the year with the exact same slugging percentage. Is he a slugging second baseman?
  9. squally1313
    Which, to be fair, is Ricketts' probably ideal position to be in. But I get your point. Works better if paired with a Hoerner extension, Taillon trade, etc, to soften the blow.
  10. squally1313
    Eh, the Tucker trade was good in my opinion, regardless of what happens from here on out. We're in a win now stretch with a bunch of blocked prospects, and we've already got Horton/PCA/Busch/Amaya/maybe Shaw locked in with a ton of controlled years. Trading for multiple years of Skubal would have cost PCA plus more. Paying for multiple years of Skubal would cost (reportedly) $400m. One year costs a blocked prospect or two and $15m-$20m.
  11. squally1313
    Thoughts on: Sign Eugenio Suarez to some 3/$60 type deal (will be 35 next year, coming off a 8/$79m deal), give him an opt out if he wants it, front load it. Trade from the Shaw/Ballesteros/Caissie group to get Skubal, knowing you have all the money in the world to sign him to a long term deal that kicks in once Taillon/Happ/Suzuki/Hoerner fall off. It doesn't have to be Shaw that goes in the trade, Suarez' defensive metrics fell off and he can start as the de facto DH and is essentially the backup infielder with the flexibility of Shaw and Hoerner. Or you trade Shaw and just slot Suarez in and go with Ballesteor/Caissie as DH/RF Your offense takes a small hit but adds righty power, and we get to roll out the best pitcher in baseball without having to take on a ton of 2026 salary commitment. Spend 2026 working on Skubal/Hoerner/PCA extensions. I'd prefer a bigger bat than Suarez but anyone better than him is probably going to require a much longer deal. Having a rotation of Skubal (L)/Horton (R)/Steele (L)/Boyd (L) down the stretch is pretty nice to think about.
  12. squally1313
    I don't know if I agree with the overall concept, but I think the order in which you listed them is correct in the sense that the Cubs should be looking to go sign the best bat possible as soon as possible, create some redundancy wherever that bat ends up playing, and then deal from that strength. I'd prefer the bat to be in an outfielder/DH mold rather than a 3B role, because I think Shaw the player is a lot more valuable to the near term Cubs than someone like Caissie or Ballesteros. But go get someone and then let Hoyer and Hottovy find some pitching in the trade market with the then-superfluous young talent.
  13. squally1313
    The 2025 offense, as a whole, doesn't need improving. Replacing Kyle Tucker, who is either 1a or 1b in terms of offensive ability depending on how you view Busch, with either Caissie or Ballesteros, who performed either equally or worse than Matt Shaw at AAA, should be viewed as a significant downgrade and probably lowers the overall offensive production (inclusive of defense and baserunning) from 3rd to somewhere in the 6th-8th slot.
  14. squally1313
    Extremely half-assed internet research: Suzuki has a NTC, but would assume if there's a list of teams he's willing to waive it for, the Dodgers would be on it. The Dodgers currently have Kike Hernandez in left after Conforto bombed out, and both of them are bad and free agents at YE anyways. The Dodgers don't need Suzuki (or anyone else), but 1/$19m for a left fielder is pocket change to them. The Dodgers, on the pitching side, have Snell for 4 years, Glasnow for 2, Shohei/Yamamoto/Sasaki for forever, and then there's Emmitt Sheehan (2.1 fWAR, 2.82/2.93 ERA/FIP in 73 IP/12 starts) and Gavin Stone (2.1 fWAR, 3.53 ERA/4.01 FIP in 140 IP/25 starts coming off October 2024 TJ surgery). Adding one of those guys to the pitching mix with control through 2029 and clearing $19m off the books makes someone like Tucker much more palatable, and then you still have Caissie/Ballesteros/Long to figure out pitching and fight for a DH spot.
  15. squally1313
    I follow the logic on all this, and I'm not sure I've thought through a specific plan that flips the script and does better, but the above team basically is swapping Tucker for Caissie and then Alcantara for Rea, and then picking up a fringe win or two between Goldschmidt and Williams. That seems....sorta status quo? Which is not bad, it's a 92 win team, you're avoiding the big contract, etc. I think I'd just rather go down the path of keeping the offense elite and balancing it a little bit so that we aren't mainly defensing our way to all the WAR. Tucker lets you find the highest bidder for Caissie and Alcantara, Bichette, Bregman, or even Suarez lets you find the highest bidder for Shaw. On one hand, as I said earlier, it's not like you can just snap your fingers and make a trade. On the other, your top end pitching options expand a lot from the group of Cease/Ranger Suarez/Valdez/King. And if we're being honest, part of the reason I want a bigger offensive splash is to save Jed and Tom from doing the thing I really don't want them to do, which is to turn a 21 year old Ballesteros into a full time DH right off the jump because he's cheap and probably an above average hitter.
  16. squally1313
    In this plan are you comfortable with the pitching options mostly coming from free agency? Don't think Long gets you anywhere close to the talent level you're looking for. Given the order of operations you'd basically be going into free agency with: Shota - the main question here but the one you have to decide on first. 3/57 seems steep, which means it's out of their hands Horton Boyd on essentially a one year deal (mutual option for 2027 but those rarely vest) Taillon on a one year deal 1.5ish years of Steele Probably Rea on a one year deal Assad/Wicks/Brown/other assorted mediocre innings eaters A likely limited Wiggins, who still has to clear the AAA hurdle That seems low on both high level talent and ability to fill innings past 2026, Shota impacts that and having to make that decision first in the offseason can guide the plan, but him likely having consecutive player options takes the decision out of Jed's hands. I know it's not nearly as easy as it sounds to just trade for a cost controlled starter, but I'm still leaning towards signing a bigger bat and then jettisoning some of the AAA offensive talent for similarly valued arms.
  17. squally1313
    But you would think facing better pitching would result in an uptick in strikeouts or a decrease in walks, as those are typically the best metrics in determining the quality of pitching.
  18. squally1313
    Brewers, the regular season, play the game the right way, just relentlessly attack you offense: 9.1% BB rate, 20.3% K rate, .145 ISO... .305 BABIP Brewers, the post-season, least hits over a four game stretch in franchise history offense: 9.0% BB rate, 21.3% K rate, .147 ISO... .231 BABIP It's such a dumb sport why do I like it so much
  19. squally1313
    A very half assed look at the offense, with somewhat conservative WAR numbers for 2026. PCA 4.5 Busch 3.5 Hoerner 4.0 Swanson 3.0 Happ 2.5 Suzuki 2.5 Kelly/Amaya 2.5 Shaw 2.0 Ballesteros/Caissie 2.0 That right there is 26.5 WAR, which would have put them 9th in baseball this year. That's obviously a good start, but there's not really an clear move there to get that number into the 30s, which three teams, including us, did in 2025. Trading Happ or Suzuki are probably lateral moves at best, going Tucker over Ballesteros/Caissie probably gets you another 3 or so but probably locks you out, budget wise, on a big pitcher. I think you have to find a way to get out of the Taillon contract and do whatever you can, through trades and free agency, to pick up two better starters than him. Horton, Boyd, starter one, starter two, and then some combination of Shota/Assad/Rea/Wicks/whatever. Steele coming back is a bonus, and we've seen enough evidence to justify using the too many starters 'problem' as an excuse to give Boyd/Shota/etc some fake IL visits, long relief stretches, etc.
  20. squally1313
    Because that doesn’t help his narrative
  21. squally1313
    The games before then don’t count, obviously
  22. squally1313
    That’s a bad 2-0 swing
  23. squally1313
    It’s not a big hand
  24. squally1313
    This is a way better way to say what I was trying to say earlier
  25. squally1313
    Happ hit a three home run off their best pitcher literally the last game we played Jesus Christ guys
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