squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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Assuming they can take their foot off the gas enough to set up the rotation the way they want to, and 5 games up on the Padres and 5 back on Milwaukee is making that pretty likely, I would guess they probably give him the game 2 slot to split up the lefties. Not sure that's really a thing/advantage that's borne out in actual stats/results, but it's certainly a coach-speak thing, and it gives the 'honor' of game 1 starter and the pressure of a game 3 to the veteran pitcher.
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The way the rules are written on the one MLB website I pulled up, I don't think you have to carry 13 pitchers. But part of that conversation above me was me getting to the conclusion that we don't really have uses for a Hamilton or a Ballesteros as it is. Someone like Taillon you bring because the game one starter can get a blister or take a line drive off the elbow or whatever in the first inning, and you probably want someone (separate, worse than Taillon) to soak up innings in a 9-0 after 2 situation.
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Happ, who is plenty good, has played in 435 more games than Hoerner post-2016 and will probably get passed in cumulative fWAR by the end of April next year.
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I just don't know if you have a need two pinch runners. It wouldn't be for PCA or Hoerner. Tucker, Happ, Shaw would necessitate Castro being available because they aren't going to throw a two years out of baseball Hamilton into the field. Busch or Turner and then the catcher? Because you couldn't pinch run for either position twice. Though I'm not totally sure there's much of a use for Ballesteros either. Do we really think he's a significant upgrade to any of the RHBs against RHPs that would also necessitate an immediate defensive sub? This all goes out the window if Tucker stays on the shelf, but I think if that were a real concern we'd be seeing Caissie getting regular ABs with the team, so guessing this is still just them being cautious.
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Yeah he's gotten back on a good stretch of production but I'm still going to lean on the side that it's more important to have the guys fresh than to try and time some (potentially mythical) hot streak two weeks out.
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Just DHing though. and only 5 games left down there. Can call him up after that, Santana is an easy cut and the games next week almost assuredly won't mean anything. I'm not going to lose any sleep over a mediocre McGuire or a very rusty Amaya, neither should be getting starts and Kelly doesn't have a platoon split.
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I think McGuire gets the nod over Amaya for the first series at least, Amaya has just missed too much time to rely on. I wonder if Ballesteros gets a spot to be the LHB off the bench and Castro is just there to sub in defensively wherever he’s needed.
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.421 OBP going into tonight, 118 wRC
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Lol
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10 baserunners against 11 outs against Skenes, I’m good pretty much regardless
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I get that, and probably don't disagree, but I still think it's ultimately because the Phillies pitchers are just better. You cite Busch (27 points better over Turner's 113), Happ (33 points better), and PCA (26 points better vs Castro's 108), but Swanson is 34 points better against LHP, Hoerner 71 points better, Suzuki 17 points better, Shaw 18 points better. Tucker (138/140), Kelly (118/123) are pretty even. You lose some defense with Turner and Castro for sure, but we've got some serious talent against LHP. The Brewers v Phillies thing is interesting because I agree that the Phillies are just the better team, despite what the record shows you. But if you're going to go that route....I don't know, Ohtani/Betts/Freeman and then Yamamoto/Ohtani/Glasnow/Snell is pretty hard to beat! I know they aren't an option for the second round, but I'd really like to avoid them in round 1.
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Second half (since 7/1) wRCs, just for fun: Hoerner (173) Tucker (130) Suzuki (68) Swanson (150) Kelly (135) Turner (145) (Busch 128!) Shaw (117) Happ (85) PCA (54)/Castro (-41 in 15 PAs)
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You could run out the following lineup against an LHP (with the YTD wRC against LHP) Hoerner (167 wRC) Tucker (137 wRC) Suzuki (130 wRC) Swanson (127 wRC) Kelly (118 wRC) Turner (113 wRC) Shaw (102 wRC) Happ (93 wRC) PCA/Castro (59 wRC/108 wRC)
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I mean, FG has Sanchez, Luzurdo, and Suarez all as top 10 pitchers this year (and Wheeler 11th), so I understand the desire to avoid facing them from a 'avoid facing good pitchers' point of view. But should we be extending this concern to LHPs in general?
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I swear I'm not trying to do the thing I normally do, but I've got the Cubs with a 105 wRC against LHP since July 1 and a 100 wRC against RHP over that time frame. For the year it's 106 vs 110. Am I doing the stats wrong in terms of these supposed struggles against LHP?
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Matt Boyd is a significantly better pitcher. His results have soured a little bit, and I’ve been more worried than most about him hitting the walls, but the need around here have assured me the underlying stuff all looks fine, which is enough for me. Limit his pitches the next couple weeks, give him an extra day or two, and then give him the ball for one of the three games.
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They’re going to try and catch lightning in a bottle on a pitcher who can go more than one inning getting hot. Might blow up once or twice before the end of the year but highly unlikely it will have any actual impact.
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We probably shouldn’t base decisions on four start sample sizes
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If we get no progress does Tucker play through this type of injury in October?
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The Pirates have had 26 different players take a PA for them this year. Only one of them has a wRC over 100. The Cubs have 10.
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The Padres don't have any LH starting pitchers, which helps. The numbers in September, team wise, show improvement in actual outcomes relative to July/August but a little bit of a regression in terms of the expected metrics. 8th in total offensive fWAR (Phillies comfortably first, Dodgers 6th, Brewers 7th, Padres 16th), first in walk rate, 19th in K rate, 12th in wOBA, 13th in xwOBA, 8th in baserunning, second in defense. Drilling down, Busch, PCA, and Shaw have been bad in every measure, expected metrics still love Seiya, Dansby is playing to his career line, Kelly and Castro are fine but getting a little lucky. Happ and Hoerner have been incredible, as mentioned.
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Ashcroft has been pretty solid since coming up after an uninspiring start to the year in AAA. 2.47 ERA, 3.65 xFIP. And then Skenes tomorrow, and a 2.81 ERA in 25 innings in Oviedo on Wednesday. The offense is bad, 41 home runs in 53 second half games is the lowest in baseball, but unfortunately seeing some good pitching again (and then Greene and Lodolo to start the Reds series). Playoff odds have moved to 100% even though it's not officially clinched yet. Will be interesting to see how the Dodgers/Padres play out if the Dodgers stumble a bit....they've both struggled enough that the Phillies and Brewers are basically locked into a bye, assuming we take care of business and lock in the 4th spot, it'll be interesting to see if those teams go all out down the stretch to get the 3 seed instead of the 5 seed.
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When
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118 wRC
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The hitters are fine, the pitching is bad
