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squally1313

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Everything posted by squally1313

  1. squally1313
    We are 84-64. If that is C+ what were you expecting
  2. squally1313
    It’s a 100 point BABIP difference. K and walk rate are the same or better at home, so it’s not like he’s seeing the ball worse. Think they’re trying to give him a little bit of a break, similar to what they’ve done with Tucker and PCA, which is fine, pretty low leverage games, but no reason to think he’s uniquely bad at wrigley
  3. squally1313
    Unless they’re for some reason very impressed with Castro out in center, I think this basically means the end of the PCA rest/reset period. Obviously the offensive performance isn’t there yet, but still plenty of ways for him to add value beyond that. Just need to recognize that he’s probably the worst hitter in the lineup at the moment and slot him accordingly.
  4. squally1313
    I have a dumb question. The season ends today, dodgers three seed, us four seed, us with a better record. We play the dodgers in the NLCS…who gets home field?
  5. squally1313
    So the padres might be bad
  6. squally1313
    Eh. The Brewers stayed hot for 6 weeks and it was near unprecedented in 100whatever years of baseball. Being hot on 9/12 does not mean being hot on 10/3.
  7. squally1313
    yeah that's pretty discouraging on Tucker
  8. squally1313
    Ballesteros day
  9. squally1313
    What PCA did in the first half is insane, but whatever award you want to assign to the guy who just went out and stayed at his borderline elite skill level week after week, it's definitely him. Monthly wRC never dipped below 99, and after topping out at 110 (in June), he's at 165 in September, which is giving him 121 for the second half, which is insane for an elite defensive middle infielder.
  10. squally1313
    Bertz explained better than I could. I asked the question too. Ultimately I'm not worried about it, we're going to need to go win 4 coinflips to win it all. The ROS projections don't like them, for playing time purposes and because they might not think they're as good of a team. Lining up even a regressed version of their YTD xwOBA to what the ROS Depth Chart numbers show has me thinking they are undervaluing them a little bit, but....it's not going to matter much over a 3 game sample size.
  11. squally1313
    So if I'm reading you correctly: the pitching is bad because the full year stats say that they've been bad, and we should ignore the recent stretch when they were good because they had a SOS that was at least softer than how they started the year (not sure how to compare to other teams) the offense is bad because the recent stretch in which they were bad, and we should ignore the full year stats because when they were good against the good part of the schedule that doesn't count Close?
  12. squally1313
    Apples to apples on the 22nd in xFIP, Cubs are fourth in xwOBA, 3rd in baserunning, 2nd in defense YTD. 7th in xFIP in the second half if you want to line up with the diminished offensive production in the second half. We should at least be consistent with sample sizes.
  13. squally1313
    But it doesn’t necessarily answer the question on why the Mets have a higher WS % than us, right? Which, from my quick viewpoint, seems to come from a very low ROS winning percentage (.511 for the cubs vs .588 for the Mets), which, I assume, means whatever projection system is driving that is currently pretty down on the cubs. I wouldn’t put a lot of stock into it, there’s a bunch of different options you can use for that input and I think the default one has been previously discussed as bad, but think it is impacting the final percentages a little bit.
  14. squally1313
    Yeah it’s actually shaping up to be a fun last couple weeks of the season in terms of teams going for a playoff spot or at least positioning. Feel like it looked pretty boring a few weeks ago. I would very much like to be excluded from the party.
  15. squally1313
    Without doing a year by year comparison, that seems to be heavily driven by his catching defense. Santana played catcher from 2010-2014 and through those years FG had him at 7 wins and BR had him at 17. I know at least FG has overhauled their catching metrics lately and it's certainly more an art than a science, but they have him as like horrifically bad defensively (his 2011 season is the 6th worst defensive season of this century per FG, which is shocking considering the bonus catchers typically get).
  16. squally1313
  17. squally1313
    Road series win in a Taillon v Sale matchup.
  18. squally1313
    Santana being a gold glove first baseman is something I was made aware of at some point, but is something that is so at odds with the rest of what he brings to the table these days that that was a shocking play
  19. squally1313
    I had a thought that Nico was either striking out more lately (actually down in the second half) or that they were just sticking out more to me because they came in bigger situations but then I remembered how clutch he’s been. This is a pretty amazing split of stats for him.
  20. squally1313
    Yeah it’s not hard to come to the conclusion, given their recent performance, that this is going to be a one and done team. Unsustainable hot streak early in the season.
  21. squally1313
    Lollllll
  22. squally1313
    haha come on man, don't let that bleed in here. been miserable enough lately.
  23. squally1313
    We doing a themed gif thread?
  24. squally1313
    Hey, I'll take being Lou Brown over Major League 2 Randy Quaid every day.
  25. squally1313
    Ian Happ has basically singlehandedly dragged us to a 105 team wRC in the last 14 days. I don't know....there's signs of life here: That being said, this is an ugly matchup tonight and I'm all for shielding Busch and PCA to avoid them having to go through some potentially bad ABs.
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