squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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I'm loathe to overreact to sample sizes (or really worry too much about lineup construction), but the current versions of Tucker and Hoerner have me thinking that putting them 1-2 (then Busch, Seiya, PCA, Happ, Dansby, Kelly/Amaya, Shaw) would maybe solve this problem, whatever magnitude it is.
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Turner with another rope
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lets gooooooo
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Nice, Shota is in a groove now (that's how that works right?)
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Yeah but PCA misses a ton of balls too. Obviously PCA has been more successful in the aggregate, but Hoerner has the lowest non-Arraez strikeout rate in baseball.
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7/30 - Cubs Trade Deadline Rumors & Discussion
squally1313 replied to Outshined_One's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
And I'd rather squeeze a different fruit that has juice we are really desperate for (too far?) -
The lack of IL stint for Happ kinda clarifies the Ballesteros move for me based on the past approach by the FO. You don't really need a backup outfielder if Happ is going to stay on the roster, but he probably ideally needs a couple days off. With Amaya rehabbing in AAA, it makes sense to bring up the guy who temporarily lost his daily spot and has also already had a taste of major league pitching. Obviously now we've got 4 major league-ish catchers floating around between Chicago and Iowa, so McGuire has to see the writing on the wall. But that's a problem for the post deadline, healthy Amaya team to deal with
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PCA's last 40 games date back to 6/9 (nice). Over that stretch he has a 127 wRC and the 12th most fWAR in baseball. Those warts are really coming out! 13-10 in the last month, 91.5 win pace. I guess the 'and change' is doing some heavy lifting here? But either way, obviously 'limping' along as a pace better than you predicted at the beginning of the season for the last month. Any reference to Andrew Vaughn and his huge sample size of 15 games of success is laughable. Terrible defender with 1800 PAs from 2022-2024 that resulted in a .319 xwOBA. Came off that rousing success by getting cut by the 2nd worst team in baseball for his .219 OBP.
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I will concede the point that if the Brewers continue to out BABIP the Cubs by 51 points, which they've done since the (very arbitrary!) May 22nd date you referenced, we'll probably be in trouble. Now, their BABIP over that stretch is higher than what any team has done in a full year this decade, so I'd say it's....somewhat unlikely. And the Cubs are 27th over that stretch, which implies some unluckiness in addition to the very good opposing pitching metrics referenced above. But hey, if that all continues for....reasons, yeah, they might win more games than us!
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You can find him on base 36% of his plate appearances in July if you're genuinely looking for him.
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Even just the mention of Cease is also a good sign that teams aren't just assigning themselves one of the two buckets (Buyers, Sellers). While there's only 10 teams with a less than 10% chance of making the playoffs, you're more likely than in past years to figure out a trade with a contending team who is trying to retool.
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If we signed Andrew Vaughn when the brewers did you would have complained about it so effing much
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Depends on how much Marquee is charging Comcast at least a little bit, right? Edit: To be clear, not at all defending Comcast is any situation
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NEWS: Jed Hoyer Agrees to Extension with Cubs
squally1313 replied to UMFan83's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
sorry, further clarification. When I type in 'Urias' into FG, I see Ramon from Baltimore (who kinda just looks like Jon Berti), Luis (who also kinda just looks like Jon Berti), and Julio, who I saw on here was just reinstated (who I want absolutely no part of, for obvious reasons). Intention here isn't to get into the debates of the relative merits of the Ramon and Luis Urias' of the world, but more to confirm you weren't talking about Julio. -
Jed calling other GMs last month:
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I mean, we're 5-5 since the ASB. The sky isn't exactly falling. Overpaying because the Brewers are running at an 80% clip while our 'make the playoff' likelihood continues to move in the right direction (83% a month ago, 95.3% now) probably isn't the prudent thing to do. But yeah, the division and a first round bye are right there for the taking, going half assed on this deadline with the assets (cash and prospects) at hand is pretty unacceptable.
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NEWS: Jed Hoyer Agrees to Extension with Cubs
squally1313 replied to UMFan83's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I mean, people work at companies where there are multiple people on a team but there is an understood top boss. This isn't an unusual concept. -
But the rest of the market doesn't care about the Cubs pitching schedule. I was fine with Jed kickstarting the market by overpaying a few weeks ago. Now that we're here, it's one game, so I'm fine with him taking his typical approach, as frustrating as it is to wait until the last second.
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NEWS: Jed Hoyer Agrees to Extension with Cubs
squally1313 replied to UMFan83's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
To clarify, which Urias are we talking about here? -
Yeah I mean, if this was a uniquely us problem we'd see something beyond the Rays shuffling their catchers around. I share the frustration, the pitching needs help. But I try to remember all the teams in much more precarious situations...we're 95.4% to make the playoffs right now. If teams like the Rangers (51%), Red Sox (52%), Padres (51%) aren't doing anything yet....it's obvious everyone is in a standoff right now.
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What do you think the team ranks in total runs across baseball (he asks, foolishly, knowing that a bad intentioned sample size is coming)
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It…might be
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Going to give Boyd a little grace and say that it probably threw him off his routine a little sitting through that top of the first. Hopefully he can grit his way through it with some help from a mediocre offense.
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Boyd getting more lucky than good here
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Well if you had to run, then theoretically the guy on first would also have to run, so it’s a pretty easy 1-6-3 DP on a blocked ball or if catchers just learn how to drop it immediately. And if you don’t have to, then it’s a weird judgment on leaving the box I guess? I think I’m with you that a strikeout is just a strikeout and you shouldn’t have a chance to get first, but if you’re going to make that an option you want to avoid the sort of defensive manipulation I’m talking about.
