squally1313

A 97 win team would exceed everyone’s wildest expectations. In your mind, how do they lose the other 65 games in a way that doesn’t trigger this kind of panic?

They swept the series

But they aren’t.

Flexen is pretty valuable in a bullpen saving way. The bad thing is that he’s only here because the guy we signed for that job is in the rotation, and the worse thing is that we might have to sign another flexen soon when this flexen has to fill a rotation spot.

hey get out of here nerd, we've got narratives to push

Good sweep. Wins are wins. "This garbage bullpen is going to keep us from being an elite team" (Bullpen throws 10.2 innings without an earned run to win three tight games) "Well the offense sucks"

I just can't imagine they'd give up on him with 3.5 years left on his deal. The actual cash spend went up this year (and goes up slightly going forward), but $15m AAV is really good value for a pitcher as good as Keller. LIke, giving up an established starter with 3.5 years of team control for a AAA outfielder ready to step into their major league line up helps them....in what competitive time frame?

What a first post.

Fine. I am so bored at work and this week is fake anyways. Teams with less than 5% chance of making the playoffs: Orioles (1.8%) Eflin - FA after this year, like $10m left. Elite in 2023, very solid in 2024, a very slow start coming off a minor injury in 2025. Charlie Morton - FA after this year, like $10m left. Basically looked like the pitcher version of Justin Turner to start the year, but has turned it around a little bit. Actually didn't realize he got pulled from the rotation so his game log being filled with 1-3 earned runs is not nearly as impressive, but a 3.98 ERA in 20 innings in May. Sugano - FA after this year, like $8m left. Strikes out and walks absolutely no one, a very luck driven 3.23 ERA on the year but the advanced numbers have him as a low to mid 4 guy. White Sox (0%) - To their credit all their pitchers currently have tons of control, so no obvious choices here. Adrian Houser if things get real desperate. Athletics (2.5%) Severino - Just signed a two year deal with a player option, has been very good but can't see them bailing this early on a big signing. Jeffrey Springs - $6m left this year, $10m next year, team option for 2027. Historically very effectively when he actually pitches, this year (basically a Boyd type), this year mediocre with a lot of innings. Seems like a perfect A, so probably not available. Angels (0%) Tyler Anderson - Owed $10m this year, FA after that. Not good, will soak up innings. Kikuchi - Just signed a 3/$63m deal so can't see him being available. Hendricks - I mean....maybe??? Nationals (0%) Trevor Williams - Somehow also signed for next year still but basically Colin Rea with a little more upside. Gore - Covered elsewhere. Pay for him. Soroka - A little more interesting, but it's just been too long since he was good. Marlins (0%) Alcantara - Covered elsewhere. Cal Quantrill - Will eat up innings and not much else. Pirates (0.1%) Keller - Not going to be available. Heaney - FA after this year, cheap, will eat innings, go get him. Rockies (0%) Kyle Freeland - There's enough there to be interested but the Rockies are so weird trying to trade with them seems pointless. lol I once again got bored halfway through. Bolded the names I want to save everyone the time.

While he could be the 3rd best pitcher of the last 15 years, what if instead he was only the 13th best pitcher of the last 15 years

There are probably worse worst case scenarios than Career 36.6 fWAR in 247 career starts Stephen Strasburg.

Toronto is 3 games back in the wild card right now, we're about a month away from any of their performing players being a realistic option.

It's probably their choice of any three players not named PCA. Think you start at Shaw and Horton, and then at least one of the other top prospects.

You've got over a quarter of the league with a sub-5% chance of making the playoffs. I understand how this stuff normally works but it's going to be really annoying when the Dodgers give up international slot money for Charlie Morton and Soto next week.

I know Boyd is a veteran arm and the circumstances are different but he's about a month away from blowing by anything he's done in the last 5 years as well. 2020: 60.1 IP 2021: 88 IP 2022: 21.2 IP 2023: 71 IP 2024: 83 IP 2025: 55.1 IP

Eh. I see your point but feel like that type of belief ('need an ace for the playoffs') is more selective memory than actually borne out in reality. The Orioles best pitcher that year threw 168 innings, 8.96 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, 2.83/3.77/3.27/3.53 ERA/xERA/FIP/xFIP, 3.8 fWAR. The best Rangers pitcher threw 144 innings, 8.25 K/9, 2.94 BB/9, 3.63/3.98/3.88/3.96. Yes, obviously there's a reputational difference between Kyle Bradish and Nate Eovaldi, but going into the post season there's not really a reason to think they were an ace short vs the eventual champions. More importantly, typically if you go down the thought process of wanting/needing an ace, there's like 6-8 of them in baseball in general and almost all of them aren't anywhere near available, so I'm just not going to lose sleep over it. Hopefully it's Horton in a year or two, until then we just have to hope that Shota is a big game pitcher and the other guys are healthy come the fall.

The closest thing I've found is the xBA stat in the gamefeed on Savant. Obviously not a direct correlation to runs but if you see it enough you get a sense of just how lopsided the batted ball performance was or wasn't. Last night had them fairly even actually. https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-batting-average

Going into the year, my big gripe was a lack of top end talent, but figured we had enough mid rotation depth to get through the year without too much pain. Things are clearly different now, Matthew Boyd is our ace, Horton is already here and pitching into the 7th, we're kinda just closing our eyes and giving the ball to Colin Rea every 5th day. Our internal reinforcements are Jordan Wicks and....Connor Noland? We've discussed the lack of top end talent and I get it, especially with the calendar still saying May. But this offense is good enough to cover for a generally mediocre innings eater who's future arm health we are less concerned about than Brown and Horton. Just call the Orioles and their 1.8% playoff chance every day and ask what combination of Eflin, Morton, Sugano, Bautista, Soto we can have.

Big moment for Shaw against those sliders

This game is annoying

Little bit of a bullpen crunch on our end. Palencia, Pomeranz, and Thielbar have all thrown the last two days, Brasier went Saturday and Sunday. Would guess in an ideal world they're all unavailable today, and those first three should probably get tomorrow off as well. Let's hope for some lopsided scores so that we don't have to worry too much about Kriske and Flexen eating some innings.

Colin Rea sucks, go get a pitcher

The Pirates scored more than four runs last night. The last time they scored more than four runs in a game was April 23rd.

This is not the lesson here.

I read the post, decided it was sarcasm, had a quick second thought given how hard it is to tell around here these days, and then decided it was best for me if I just moved on. PCA, and this team, are exceeding everyone's wildest expectations (especially because all these same people said the team sucked going into the year). But given 54 outs of almost daily baseball, I guess you can always find, and endlessly linger on, some perceived fault.