squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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We have to go back two starts for one where he gave up less than 4 (7 IP, 2 ER). As someone who relies on a certain level of metrics (K, BB, LOB rates, BABIP, etc) but is a little out of depth in terms of looking at actual pitch level performance (velocity, pitch grades, etc), the numbers are concerning because he just stopped striking people out. BABIP is normal, LOB rate is fine, he just stopped putting people away. He pitched like a top 15 guy through like August 15th (10th in fWAR through that date, 6th in ERA, 25th in xFIP), and now YTD he's 15th in fWAR, 13th in ERA, 34th in xFIP. I think that overall numbers are pretty indicative of who he is, a good not great starter. But Jameson Taillon is probably bad. He's not pitching strong, he's overly reliant on defense. He has the fifth lowest BABIP of anyone with over 110 innings and he's barely holding onto a sub-4.00 ERA.
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A quarter of the season? For the guy with two starts coming off injury and a 5/4 K/BB ratio in 10.1 IP in those starts? Matt Boyd has a better FIP and xFIP in his last 7 starts than Taillon's last 7 starts. And was obviously significantly better than he was before those starts.
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I think even a diminished form of Matt Boyd is better than Taillon. And then there's the possibilities that he's purposely dialing it back a notch, that he's getting unlucky in the way that just called up Horton was in terms of not putting guys away, etc. Relying on short term trends over full season performance is not the right way to manage a baseball team.
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This is obviously a more condensed time frame, but in Boyd's last two starts last year for Detroit he gave up 15 baserunners in 6.2 innings combined. He then went out and gave up 13 over 11.2 (and one run). I'll lean on that playoff performance over a Wednesday morning matinee against the Pirates.
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Do you think this is a high pressure game?
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The Cubs have faced starting pitching with ERAs of 2.74, 2.03, and 2.81. They have 37 baserunners in 19 innings.
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See todays thread
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I had thrown out there yesterday that the lack of Caissie in Chicago meant the Cubs weren't overly concerned about Tucker, but Suzuki in RF/Ballesteros at DH is another contingency plan I guess, so could be a chance we have a bigger problem here.
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We're not nervous about Hamilton being 34 years old and having had 2 minor league PAs total in the last two years? Just going to stick him in CF? I generally agree with Santana over Ballesteros for the reasons you laid out. Busch is bad enough against LHP and Turner is bad enough against RHP that you want to avoid any late game situation where that comes out and Santana lets you. It would have been nice to see a little more of Happ, Tucker, Suzuki in CF, or someone besides Turner and Busch at first, just to give them a little flexibility around the extreme cases.
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Clinch day is nice but this is Keep Matt Boyd Healthy Day and also, ideally, Get Matt Boyd Back To Elite Day
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Wild card series will be a little tricky with three games in three days but if we can get through that you can lean on them a lot more.
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I want as many pitchers as possible, honestly. Among starters with at least 110 innings (to include Horton), our three theoretical playoff starters rank 52nd, 66th, and 78th in xFIP. They've gotten us to the playoffs, but they aren't Good. Boyd, for example, goes 3.77/4.16/4.80/7.76 in xFIP when looking at times through the order. Shota is pretty neutral but has yet to get past three times through the order. I'd be totally fine with the game plan being 18 batters at most for the starters, which leaves 15-20 for the pen guys each game. Besides, who is Santana or Ballesteros pinch hitting for?
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If I'm doing the calendar math right, I think he's getting a week off after that start, and in theory should have plenty of rest going into it, so should be pretty close to unlimited. WC Series is Tuesday 9/30 - Thursday 10/2. Game one of the DS is Saturday 10/4, which would be Boyd if they sweep and probably Taillon if they don't (because Shota would be on 3 days rest). Either way, that puts Shota in for game 2, which is Monday 10/6, and then Horton for Wednesday 10/8. More days off than I had originally thought, and honestly as a neutral baseball fan don't like the day off on Friday 10/3. It benefits whoever wins the WC series, but I like it better conceptually that the winning team has to get right on the road to play game one the next day.
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Assuming they can take their foot off the gas enough to set up the rotation the way they want to, and 5 games up on the Padres and 5 back on Milwaukee is making that pretty likely, I would guess they probably give him the game 2 slot to split up the lefties. Not sure that's really a thing/advantage that's borne out in actual stats/results, but it's certainly a coach-speak thing, and it gives the 'honor' of game 1 starter and the pressure of a game 3 to the veteran pitcher.
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The way the rules are written on the one MLB website I pulled up, I don't think you have to carry 13 pitchers. But part of that conversation above me was me getting to the conclusion that we don't really have uses for a Hamilton or a Ballesteros as it is. Someone like Taillon you bring because the game one starter can get a blister or take a line drive off the elbow or whatever in the first inning, and you probably want someone (separate, worse than Taillon) to soak up innings in a 9-0 after 2 situation.
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Happ, who is plenty good, has played in 435 more games than Hoerner post-2016 and will probably get passed in cumulative fWAR by the end of April next year.
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I just don't know if you have a need two pinch runners. It wouldn't be for PCA or Hoerner. Tucker, Happ, Shaw would necessitate Castro being available because they aren't going to throw a two years out of baseball Hamilton into the field. Busch or Turner and then the catcher? Because you couldn't pinch run for either position twice. Though I'm not totally sure there's much of a use for Ballesteros either. Do we really think he's a significant upgrade to any of the RHBs against RHPs that would also necessitate an immediate defensive sub? This all goes out the window if Tucker stays on the shelf, but I think if that were a real concern we'd be seeing Caissie getting regular ABs with the team, so guessing this is still just them being cautious.
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Yeah he's gotten back on a good stretch of production but I'm still going to lean on the side that it's more important to have the guys fresh than to try and time some (potentially mythical) hot streak two weeks out.
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Just DHing though. and only 5 games left down there. Can call him up after that, Santana is an easy cut and the games next week almost assuredly won't mean anything. I'm not going to lose any sleep over a mediocre McGuire or a very rusty Amaya, neither should be getting starts and Kelly doesn't have a platoon split.
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I think McGuire gets the nod over Amaya for the first series at least, Amaya has just missed too much time to rely on. I wonder if Ballesteros gets a spot to be the LHB off the bench and Castro is just there to sub in defensively wherever he’s needed.
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.421 OBP going into tonight, 118 wRC
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Lol
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10 baserunners against 11 outs against Skenes, I’m good pretty much regardless
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I get that, and probably don't disagree, but I still think it's ultimately because the Phillies pitchers are just better. You cite Busch (27 points better over Turner's 113), Happ (33 points better), and PCA (26 points better vs Castro's 108), but Swanson is 34 points better against LHP, Hoerner 71 points better, Suzuki 17 points better, Shaw 18 points better. Tucker (138/140), Kelly (118/123) are pretty even. You lose some defense with Turner and Castro for sure, but we've got some serious talent against LHP. The Brewers v Phillies thing is interesting because I agree that the Phillies are just the better team, despite what the record shows you. But if you're going to go that route....I don't know, Ohtani/Betts/Freeman and then Yamamoto/Ohtani/Glasnow/Snell is pretty hard to beat! I know they aren't an option for the second round, but I'd really like to avoid them in round 1.
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Second half (since 7/1) wRCs, just for fun: Hoerner (173) Tucker (130) Suzuki (68) Swanson (150) Kelly (135) Turner (145) (Busch 128!) Shaw (117) Happ (85) PCA (54)/Castro (-41 in 15 PAs)