squally1313
-
Posts
11,309 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
28
Content Type
Profiles
Joomla Posts 1
Chicago Cubs Videos
Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking
News
2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
Guides & Resources
2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
The Chicago Cubs Players Project
2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker
2026 Chicago Cubs Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses
Blogs
Events
Forums
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by squally1313
-
Rizzo hits the ball 25% worse and we're winning right now, but sure.
-
This will probably just sound reactionary to the last 10 games or so (and part of it probably is), but man, I miss Schwarber and his majestic dongs.
-
I think the issue is, and this could absolutely just be a bias on my part, that we only see Ski and RondonFan when things aren't going well. If you had Sofa and Derwood and whoever else that post all the time and overreact to all the good parts posting the pessimistic, panicky things, I'd still think they were wrong, but whatever, people get overinvested. But when it only shows up when we're losing...then it gets tired.
-
We had a (roughly) .346 OBP literally yesterday. Deep breaths everyone.
-
does anyone remember when Ronny Cedeno was thrown out at 2nd on a walk? That was a top 5 most frustrating moments ever Can't find the video, but 2800 career PAs, ending up at -1 WAR. Dark times.
-
Yeah his xFIP is like 4.00 (owing to only a 2-1 K-BB rate and that he's given up basically no home runs on fly balls) He'll regress but I hope he ends up walking fewer dudes to counteract it somewhat Consider the Brewers pitcher is some nobody I've never heard of, I'm expecting another mightily difficult struggle and no runs before the 9th inning, again Get that 2014 Cubs talk out of here. Their Sunday night Stanley's hangover has finally worn off and there will be dongs a plenty.
-
With our playoff odds being what they are, outside of an injury leaving a gigantic hole (which this team was built to avoid), I don't see much benefit in trading away more than cash and nothing prospects for short term offensive upgrades. Andrew Miller is probably my main target in terms of realistic deadline improvements. Agree with most everyone else on Chapman. The vision of him being the guy getting the final out for us would be that one lingering negative to an otherwise perfect moment.
-
I hope OMC has a nice long run, but I really hope Rondon Fan gets like an 18 game winning streak.
-
5/11 Padres (Pomeranz) @ CUBS (Lackey) 7:05 CDT CSN
squally1313 replied to ctcf's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Please spoiler that picture. Terrifying. Lineup is out. Night off for Zobrist, Addy. Soler in left, batting 5th again, Baez and LaStella up the middle, Ross batting 8th. -
5/11 Padres (Pomeranz) @ CUBS (Lackey) 7:05 CDT CSN
squally1313 replied to ctcf's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
It's fine guys, double headers are near impossible to sweep. That's why we'll win. -
Hahaha perfect. Good work.
-
Seven. Or 6 after tonight. Edit: What? I'm an idiot. See TT below.
-
Think about what you just said. In baseball, you play another team. Right, but the Cubs sitting their good guys and not playing them gives another team a better chance to beat us considering a [expletive] team has less guys to sit that will hurt them. Right, and the Cubs have a better bench so their bench players starting will be better than the Padres bench players starting, and the Cubs have a better bullpen so more of our bullpen pitchers pitching will be better than their bullpen and if you try and do that thing where you point to Strop and Ramirez today to refute this, just....don't.
-
yes i'm sure about that I don't think you should be, is what I'm saying. It's not impossible to win a doubleheader and it happens of course, but there are definitely things that make it more difficult than winning on back to back days. Jesus Christ. Literally everything you are saying applies to both teams evenly and thus means nothing. Just stop.
-
this isn't a thing and has nothing to do with how this game will play out it's no harder than winning any two consecutive games You sure about that? Often you aren't starting the lineup you'd be able to start if it was back-to-back days rather than on both and you also are dealing with bullpen choices you might not normally have to deal with. I imagine it is harder. Think about what you just said. In baseball, you play another team.
-
i think we're more upset at the rundiff than the loss It's really the best possible scenario around here...that way, there's reason to complain after every run scored against us.
-
Oh no guys we might be 25-7
-
There are no better words in the english language to describe Kyle Hendricks as 'perpetually out of place-looking'.
-
Grandpa granddong incoming.
-
I forgot how entertaining these games were when we aren't playing supposedly 'good' teams. Let's wear down the bullpen in game one.
-
Lester's strand rate is going to even out eventually, but I'm going to enjoy it in the meantime.
-
Eh, it's a baseball board discussing a decision that has merits on both sides. Far better than some of the other things that get argued around here. It's the third inning, whatever.
-
Ah, yes, of course. I'm sure that was your best effort. Yeah, this is pretty much what I was getting at. I know the playoffs are a crap shoot, but I'm wondering how good you have to be before you start tipping the scale. To go off TT's example... (This website seems pretty helpful: http://turner.faculty.swau.edu/mathematics/math241/materials/playoff/) A 130 win Cubs team going against an 88 win Giants team has a 67.6% chance of winning that series. Just assuming the Cubs have to win 3 of those series (longer series would help the Cubs, but tougher opponents would hurt, so assume it balances out), you'd be looking at a 31% chance of winning it all. Assuming I ran the math right. Edit: To add in some basics of the math, the Cubs would have a 59.6% chance of winning an individual game, based on Cubs winning percentage divided by (Cubs winning percentage + Giants winning percentage). 21.2% chance of sweeping, 25.7% chance of winning in 4, 20.7% chance of winning in 5.
-
I guess the only thing you could maybe get away with is saying it would be slightly less of a crapshoot. This is really rough math but is probably wrong, but a true talent level 105 win team has a 64.8% chance of winning every game. I can't figure out the best way to run 5/7 game simulations, but if you have a 64.8% chance of winning each series, your odds of winning the World Series are 27.2% (64.8^3). Conversely, a 90 win team ends up with a 17.1% chance. Of course, that's before you take into account that in both scenarios you're playing teams that are probably better than .500 teams, so drop both numbers a little bit. Fangraphs shows it a lot better, and almost definitely using better math. We're projected to win 102 games, and our odds of winning the World Series are 18.7%. We'll probably avoid the play-in game at this point (96% chance to win the division per FG), but an 8 team playoff decided purely on coin flips gives every team a 12.5% chance. This was a lot of words to come to the same conclusion as everyone else did. Yes, they are still a crapshoot.
-
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-9-16
squally1313 replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
They could become Vogelbombs again... Bombs are so 2014. These are Vogeldongs.