squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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Cubs add Chapman for Torres, et al. imb wishes we paid more
squally1313 replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Well, yeah, on that end of it, if McKinney is the 3rd piece (not that we know that to be true) then you can be pretty safe in feeling the 4th is a complete nothing. Unfortunately, I feel like that's what was being said for the 2nd (and 3rd) piece. -
Cubs add Chapman for Torres, et al. imb wishes we paid more
squally1313 replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I'm not sure that's all that terrible from a baseball perspective. Agreed. A 19 year old that is locked out of every position, and a relief pitcher that nibbles. Warren sucks. As long as the other two are throw ins, this still is a big move. Our 7th, 8th and 9th would be lights out. That isn't the point. Depending on what publication you read, Torres is somewhere in the top 50 for prospects. That has value that can be exchanged for upgrades elsewhere. If you trust Theo, then it appears that this is the most value you could get for him...2 months of a dominant reliever. I think we were all hoping he could get a little more value when trading him. And it's pretty shady to be like, 'if we trade for Chapman, our 7th, 8th, and 9th would be lights out', like that's a direct result of the trade. Unless you want Chapman out there for 50 pitches a night, 2/3rds of what you're saying already wears a Cubs uniform, and we just traded for 75% of Chapman already. -
Cubs add Chapman for Torres, et al. imb wishes we paid more
squally1313 replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
It makes more baseball sense, but man watching that horsefeathers for 4 years would be a little tough. I wasn't even that excited about the 2 months. -
Will Smith's stat line suddenly looks a lot less impressive. Buy low
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Do you have to watch more porn now?
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Fangraphs has us at about 94% to win the division, so I guess it depends on your definition of a 'lock'
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I think your definition of "exactly" is somewhat off. He got a ground ball hit directly to one of our infielders. That's why he was there. Some combination of Bryant breaking in on that ball and just really terrible luck. Plenty of time left.
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Also, Richard did exactly he was supposed to do.
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There wasn't that great of video, but that seems like it was played less than ideally by Kris.
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The 1998 Yankees won 114 games for .704 winning percentage. The Cubs aren't winning 114 games (call me crazy, but I think they lose more than 11 games the rest of the year), so that's not us. And it officially just hit me how far we've fallen. Yep. On the bright side, pythag wise we're only on pace to end up about 50 runs short of that team, which is pretty good. For as 'bleak' as things have been over the last month or so, we have the best record in baseball and are underperforming our pythag by 7 games. I hate the phrase because I hear it way too often around my white bread office, but....first world problems.
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Lets say you wanted to be extremely generous and say the Cubs had a 66% chance against each opponent in each playoff series. That's pretty absurd, but lets say they were just that good. That works out to a ~28% chance of winning the World Series over the course of 3 playoff series. I don't think any team vs. another team in a short series has that high of an edge, especially against playoff teams. I don't know - '98 yankees? '84 Tigers? The 1998 Yankees won 114 games for .704 winning percentage. The Cubs aren't winning 114 games (call me crazy, but I think they lose more than 11 games the rest of the year), so that's not us. The 84 Tigers only won 65% of their games the entire year against the entire league, so I think it's safe to say that they don't have a 66% chance of winning against another playoff team. Look, I get that it's a bit discouraging that we invest all this time to come down to what is essentially coin flips and sequencing luck. But...it is what it is. Theo knows what he's doing. Make the playoffs every year, and we'll break through.
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I don't think that is fact. To a degree worth arguing about? So what do you think the best team in baseball's (or the best roster you can reasonably construct, however you want to look at it) odds of winning are going into October? Assume HFA, as any best team in baseball would typically have. Just backing up David's point here. http://www.thegoodphight.com/2011/7/26/2293738/team-with-best-record-seldom-wins-world-series It's a 2011 article, but long story short, since they went to an 8 team playoff (and since we aren't going to be playing in the wildcard, it's essentially an 8 team playoff), the best record in baseball has won the World Series 19% of the time through 2010. Since then... Year, Best Record, World Series Winner 2011, Phillies, Cardinals 2012, Nationals, Giants 2013, Cardinals/Red Sox, Red Sox 2014, Angels, Giants 2015, Cardinals, Royals So 1/5 or exactly the odds of what had happened before. The Cubs could add Miller, Chapman, Fernandez, and Chris Sale and probably not win the World Series this year. Make the playoffs every year for the next 8, odds will hopefully fall in our favor eventually. Schwarber does more for that than Andrew Miller's 60 innings. And no, I'm not in the least bit worried about 'finding him at bats'.
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The main appeal of Miller to me isn't the 5 or 6 innings he'd be a slight upgrade over Montgomery in the playoffs, but the next two years of reliable relief pitching he'd be able to give us. That's why I'd consider someone like Eloy. Not someone who has made it here and shown he can dong with the best of them. Chapman, all things considered is worthless and should die in a fire soon.
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I'm generally more in the TT camp of not wanting marginal upgrades, but...that would give us a pretty intriguing Reddick/Baez platoon.
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I'd love to see this response put out in the comments of the article, just to see the reactions from not just Cubs fans (and maybe Cameron himself). Great work, as always.
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I'd rather just give Reddick's potential ABs to Baez the rest of the way. Even if he doesn't keep hitting the way that he is, the defense will make him valuable.
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Cubs trade Vogelbach/Blackburn for Mike Montgomery/Jordan Pries
squally1313 replied to davell's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Trading some dude with a 6.2 K/9 rate isn't going to keep me up at night. -
Out of curiosity, since you're better at this than I am, if he would have gone with 'Zobrist is hitting some terrible batting average over the last 150 (or whatever the number is) PAs'....would you have the same comment? I get that picking a random date, even the beginning/end of month, can lead to a lot of false/cherry picked conclusions, but at a certain point you have to acknowledge that it's 6 or 7 weeks of bad performance, right? Yes, I would have the same response. And it's not to say he hasn't been bad. Clearly, he has. But, to be hung up on it is silly, when the underlying numbers say he's been about the same all year, and he's just been incredibly streaky. Yeah that's fair, and your response above makes sense. If it can be explained away by mostly luck, it doesn't provide much.
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Now to pick on you, but just so you know, I'm sure at some point in May you were posting something like this about Anthony Rizzo. So that kinda shows why arbitrary endpoints are stupid, and why people think you are too obsessed with them. Out of curiosity, since you're better at this than I am, if he would have gone with 'Zobrist is hitting some terrible batting average over the last 150 (or whatever the number is) PAs'....would you have the same comment? I get that picking a random date, even the beginning/end of month, can lead to a lot of false/cherry picked conclusions, but at a certain point you have to acknowledge that it's 6 or 7 weeks of bad performance, right?
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Trick question. Nobody. And that's without including the guy with the second highest defense rating per FG on the team.
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Somewhere, on some Mets message board, that was a terrible decision to send him.
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His best current skill (pitch framing) is the one that's hardest to pick up when watching the game. Even all the walks don't really do a lot aesthetically. That being said, if you would have told me in April that people would prefer Ross to Montero, I'd have thought you were crazy.
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Eventually this isn't bad luck and more of a bad trend. The Cubs have been bad with RISP for a few weeks now. Hitting below your true talent level and/or hitting significantly worse with RISP than you do otherwise is pretty much the definition of bad luck.
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4-3 (double play to end it in the 9th) 6-1 2-1 (walk off win) 6-5 (outhit 10-6) 1-0 2-1 (11 innings) 6-1 Our season series against the Mets last year.
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KB and Rizz. We got this.