squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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It’s like 2018 Javy on steroids
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Fixed
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Horton got it through some sort of scorekeepers discretion clause. The rules get funky. failed prospect Cade Horton with a quality start and no walks with the wind howling out. Why can’t all these guys just throw strikes and also get tons of whiffs and also not throw anything too hittable, is that too much to ask
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*gestures at everything*
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(Nobody look up what Jackson Jobe, Chase Dollander, or Chase Petty has done this year)
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Nice we’re writing off our top 50 pitching prospect 6 innings into his major league career, fun.
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I mean, if you’re worried about playing a terrible team that we’ve beaten 7 out of the last 8 times, more power to you, but that also generally means you worry about every game.
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The cubs went 4-0 against the Sox last year, 3-1 the year before. People truly just remember the bad stuff about this team.
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https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kyle-tucker-663656?stats=gamelogs-r-hitting-statcast&season=2025 This is as close as I've gotten to that type of granular detail, do with it what you will (and you aren't wrong on Tuesday night). When I was reading through that, I was trying to keep in mind that his average exit velocity this year is 90.6 mph (and 91.1 mph last year), and I figured anything in the single digits or negative were ground balls.
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Eh….Mullins and Laureano hitting free agency after this year. They’ve got hitting prospects for days but most of them are seemingly infielders/catchers. (Also, Wiggins isn’t untouchable)
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The batted ball profile in those numbers I included say otherwise though. Hard hit balls are a flat 1/3rd of his output, soft is down, medium is up. It could just be/probably is just bucketing noise. But that 20% soft hit % in April would have been by far the highest of his career. His current overall 17.6% still is, but it's actually trending in the right direction. Someone smarter/more connected than me can find like, rolling average exit velocity or specific data on GBs, but I just don't see it borne out in the actual numbers.
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He's got a bunch of team control still, doesn't hit free agency until 2030. I joked last night about trading for him in a couple years (in a post Seiya and/or Happ world), but even as unserious as the Marlins are, bailing on a good player with 4 more years after control seems a little beyond the pale.
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The weak contact thing seems anecdotal. Like, yes, the double was a check swing, but the double play ball was over 100 mph and had an expected BA of like .630. That stuff evens out. Ground ball rate has spiked, which explains the slug dropping 80ish points. But hitting more GBs and less FBs would typically help your BABIP, and it's down 76 points. Ultimately, it's 12 games vs 30 games, there's going to be a lot of noise, but the stats you can lean more heavily on (exit velo metrics, K/BB rates are all very healthy). Slight mechanical tweak to get the ball back up in the air and we should expect him getting back to elite instead of just very good.
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The Cubs offense is not as good as it was in April. It’s better than it has been in May. These things happen.
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The Cubs had a 100 wRC in May going into today.
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Bad offense, successful series
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Robot umps
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Pretty excited to trade Christian Hernandez for Kyle Stowers in June 2027.
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Swanson Tucker Suzuki Kelly (DH) PCA Hoerner Amaya Turner Berti
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Zach Eflin?
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Weathers looked pretty solid in his rehab starts and got up to 17 batters last time out, so assume there won't be much of a restrictor here. Having said that, despite the top prospect background he hasn't been very good at any point in the majors, so hopefully Suzuki, Dansby, Kelly, and dare I say Turner jump on the lefty, Taillon gives us his normal performance and Keller/Hodge do the rest.
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In the last calendar year he's put up 5.0 fWAR, good for 21st offensively in baseball. And that's with a .395 OPS in June and a .611 OPS in July. (Fun asides on that leaderboard: Aaron Judge has 13.8(!!!) fWAR, Dansby is 17th, Happ is 34th, Seiya is 49th, Tucker is 51st in 81 games, Hoerner 57th, Busch 100th). Fun with arbitrary end points, he's 6th since August 1st, 4th this year.
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Yeah I mean, honestly I was mostly trying to stir the pot last night with that. He's been bad, the 14% walk rate is pretty much the only thing one can point to as evidence he's still giving competitive ABs. Big picture, it's May 14th, we're not even 20% into a year and talking about a part time player. The sample sizes are just very small.
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Excited for tomorrows game thread where we decide on a new player that needs to be cut/killed while (most likely) sweeping the series
