regardless, there isn't a whole lot of reason to believe murton will be on base significantly more than soriano. What about Soriano's career .325 OBP? Or that this is the first year of his career with a .340+ OBP? and? how are you so sure murton will best .325 next year? or Soriano will regress? We were talking about probability, right? IMO the odds that Murton puts up a, say, .340 or better OBP are higher than Soriano's. that's your opinion, not probability. to make a statement that soriano will be on base less is not really based on fact. That's why I cited Soriano's career. The guy's put up a .340 OBP once(and only once during his minor league career when he was a 23 year old at AA), and the only time Murton has ever been below a .340 OBP was his 80 Daytona AB's. Even if you account for Murton's BABIP being high this year he's still supposed to be around .340+, and he's got age on his side(with regards to having room for improvement). For that matter, in his minor league career, he only put up an OBP below .370 just once (in the year you cited) and has a career MLB OBP of .368 in basically a full seasons worth of AB's.