So Bama should be out, right, barring some weird stuff happening? For sure teams ahead of them at the end of the year: 13-0 Clemson 13-0 LSU or 12-1 Georgia 13-0 OSU or 12-1 Penn St. Then you've got a 12-1 Oregon or 12-1 Utah in the Pac-12 and a potentially 12-1 Oklahoma in the Big 12 (theoretically Baylor could go undefeated but I doubt that happens). I'd say if 11-1 Georgia beats 12-0 LSU in the SEC title game, there's no way Bama gets in. The only reason they got in a couple years ago was because OSU got hammered in their loss. Oregon, Oklahoma and Utah all have close losses. So Bama probably needs to hammer Auburn, have Oregon win the Pac-12 close, LSU win the SEC and hope Baylor beats OU the first time but loses the title game. Then you'd have Bama beating Auburn who beat Oregon and a probably underwhelming Baylor.