Coming back to this, assuming Panama doesn't get any points later in Azteca, you have: USA 8 pts +1 GD Honduras 8 pts -6 GD Panama 7 pts -1 GD With these schedules: USA: @Hon, v.Pan, @T&T Hon: v.USA, @CR, v.Mex Pan: v.T&T, @USA, v.CR A tie and a win for the US would not only put them at 11 points, but make it extremely difficult for them to be caught since Panama would likely be on 10 points and Honduras 9 entering the final game day where the US has by far the best matchup. 4 points from the next 2 games isn't a given, but Honduras hasn't exactly defended their home field well, and there's other uncertainties like Panama taking 3 from T&T(they haven't won at home in the hex).