Transmogrified Tiger

So Martin or Rivera over Lackey? I would generally agree, but with Jake and Lester as question marks I could see going 12 with Lackey as a safety valve. I mean, the only way that Jake and Lester don't at least start a game is if they get hurt beforehand, which is extremely unlikely. If you're worried they don't last long, Lackey doesn't help very much with that. And Lackey out of the pen isn't going to be much different than using Montgomery. EDIT: Plus you can simply make one of them the Game 4 starter where you have the option of bringing Game 1-2 starters back on short rest.

They only carried 11 pitchers for the NLDS last year, and especially given that Montgomery is a lock, I don't see much reason for that to change. You don't need 8 relievers when you've got a 5 game series that has 2 off days.

Hope: Hendricks, Q, Arrieta, Lester Fear: Lester, Arrieta, Q, Hendricks

The Cubs will play 70 games against teams with winning records this year. The Nationals will play 42. They still beat the good teams so it's not like they're some paper tiger, but it's worth a thought in the back of the mind when you consider the 6 wins that currently separate them in the standings.

Let's look at the 2nd half only to get a sense for how things are trending for them. 88 wRC+ is tied for 11th in the NL 3.45 ERA and 3.84 FIP are both 1st in the NL Their true talent level with the bat is better than that, but like UMFan said, they've had some hitters fall off in the 2nd half. Dusty is going to fail to press the right buttons with lineup decisions too which is nice. As a team they're almost identical v. LHP and RHP so having 2 lefties in the postseason rotation isn't going to help or hurt. There's not really anything insightful to say on how to limit them. Keep Turner off the bases, don't let the soft underbelly of the lineup(Taylor, Goodwin, Wieters, Werth, Kendrick) beat you. Good news is the Cubs pen doesn't really have much in the way of extreme splits in the back end so they won't have to burn 5 relievers to get through an inning on matchups. The rotation is obviously real good. Scherzer is a monster, but thankfully the Cubs depth will be able to stack 5+ lefties against him. Strasburg has a 0.98 ERA in the second half (in only 9 starts) and doesn't have the extreme splits. Gonzalez is having a good year but his peripherals belie his ERA and he's always been one to have his command come and go. Roark is easily the worst of the 8 starters that might feature in this series. The pen has been much better/deeper after their July shopping spree. Doolittle and Madson have been as advertised, but aside from them and a lefty specialist or two, they give a lot of innings to guys with unremarkable stuff. Matt Albers's ERA is way outpacing his peripherals, midseason aquisition Kintzler doesn't strike anyone out, and old friend Joe Blanton is around for good measure. That middle relief looks like a potential advantage relative to the Cubs being able to go Edwards/Strop/Davis with Montgomery/Rondon/Duensing around for middle relief. It shouldn't be an end to and of itself though, especially given the SP matchups. Scherzer, Strasburg (and 2017 Gio) are still great the 3rd time through the order and Dusty sure isn't going to have a quick leash on them, so if you pass up hittable pitches early in the hopes of teeing off on Kintzler in the 6th/7th, you set yourself up for the SP going 7 strong. Bottom line, you've gotta beat Scherzer/Strasburg at least once. Not easy, but their offense is a little less scary than it appeared early in the season, middle relief is an opportunity, and lest we forget, this group has never won a playoff series and has a manager that will absolutely screw things up. This will be their first postseason with a fully operational Scherzer and Strasburg though, but the Cubs have the best offense around that's deep enough to always have an advantage, a deep rotation, a very solid pen, and a manager that isn't going to let tradition force him into bad choices. Cubs in 4.

Could also put Davis at 3rd and remove one of the more regular hitters like Jay/Happ if they really want to go all out.

not 100% sure Martinez actually controlled that throw

why not go to 3rd and get the lead runner as part of the 5-3 DP?

Yeah, the important thing here is that believing it intentional requires trusting Tommy Pham's reasoned outlook, and he was so on tilt after the HBP he got picked off by 5 feet.

It was a first pich fastball that hit him in the ribs, but there's no reason outside of Pham's addled brain for anyone to think they were trying to hit him. It was in a game the Cubs/Maddon were clearly going all out to win, and getting offended at Pham's reply to Zobrist requires a line of thought that doesn't make any sense.

Me: Just beat them and dance on their field as payback Also Me: Hit Pham again and watch his heart explode in anger

Avila started on Friday, so today only makes 5 games without him playing. I was a little surprised he didn't pinch hit instead of Russell, but maybe they felt that if they were burning the bench to nothing, that they wanted Russell to PH where he wasn't going to play the field after even in emergency. Does seem like he might have a knock if he hasn't even pinch hit after tonight though.

I vote for Monday. No games scheduled unless there's a tiebreak in the NLWC. Or NL Central *ducks* viewtopic.php?f=26&t=1758&p=209032#p209033

I vote for Monday. No games scheduled unless there's a tiebreak in the NLWC.

Interesting that his UZR shows a pretty big dip this year. He was +21 from 2012-2016 but only +11 this year. That appears to be exclusively because of range, but his rate of in zone plays made or number of out of zone plays made aren't any different. I remember noticing screwy stuff about the RZR of other players earlier in the year too. If you consider him the same caliber defender, then he's knocking on the door of a 2 win season after this hot streak. Which is like the most damning faint praise you can give, but something to cling to after how horrific his August was.

If you skip him in the last start of the season then Arrieta would have 8 days rest on Game 1, 9 on Game 2, 11 on Game 3, and 12 on Game 4.

you started the thread in like the 3rd inning, own your embarrassing failure

If you think I am above banning Schwarber Fan for game thread mishaps in a game I attended, rest assured that I am not.

I will be in attendance. I would like to see the Cubs celebrate on the field. Make it so.

More or less right on, Happ at .248 and Schwarber/Avila at .247.

Fangraphs has a view that includes the night's games, you are correct: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=33&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=&age=0&filter=&players=

I'm still unclear exactly what Baez hurt, the foul ball went off his right thigh but it looked like the trainer was looking at his left knee? Replay didn't seem like anything unusual with the knee.

Lester was only in danger of falling out of the playoff rotation if he got torched twice this week, his shakiness since his DL stint has been vastly overstated.