Transmogrified Tiger

Well yes I can understand your consternation a lot more if you strongly believe this. Do you think Ohtani is going to struggle to scrape 40M AAV? Because 20-25M each for the individuals that have been thrown around instead of him is pretty well assured, if not by the market(Bellinger, Yamamoto) then by arbitration or guarantees(Glasnow, Alonso).

Is it really hard to think of reasons that aren't attributing every offseason that doesn't include Ohtani to magical thinking? You don't have to agree with them, but off the top of my head: People are intentionally excluding Ohtani because they don't think it's feasible he will choose to come to Chicago Ohtani may have a similar salary to Yamamoto + Alonso but the latter helps more in 2024 than Ohtani because he's not going to pitch Ohtani's overall future as a pitcher is in doubt, when faced with the choice of Yamamoto the pitcher + Alonso/Soto/Bellinger the hitter v. Ohtani the pitcher + Ohtani the hitter, there's a rational argument to choose the former. Especially when you layer in future expectations of Ohtani at age 30+ v. 29 for Alonso/Bellinger and 25 for Yamamoto/Soto Ohtani may be two players in 1 but you also have to go to a 6 man rotation if he does continue to pitch so the efficiency gained is diluted a bit. Also any injuries/issues he has take away production at two spots instead of one. There may be budget to add an Ohtani-sized amount of AAV but their may not be a willingness to commit to that AAV in a super long term deal(especially given post-prime ages), while one long term deal + a rental avoids that commitment before you're ready for it There are also many many reasons to sign Shohei Ohtani, the best player in baseball. I am not trying to say Do Not Sign Shohei. But come on man, have a little imagination before so quickly assuming that there's a conspiratorial blindspot in everyone else's thinking.

The needs to me look like this, not in a particular order: Middle of the order bat, which can come from CF, 1B, DH, 3B Playoff SP, by which I mean a SP you're good making more than one start in a playoff series(I find this a better mental model than debating #1 v. #2 v. #3 SP) A second above average bat (~115 wRC+) from what's left of CF, 1B, DH, 3B A leverage reliever There's permutations where you can add other minor things to this(a RHH CF, another RP, a C), but those are the highlights. If you bring back both Stroman and Hendricks, unless payroll is going to be significantly higher than expected(like flirting with 40 mil above the tax line), it's tough for me to say Playoff SP is any higher than 3rd in priority. That said, Stroman and his contract (at least most of it) are likely easy enough to move that you don't have to stop pursuing a playoff SP just because you have both of them banked. But the paths to getting one without the acute need do get more narrow.

I am a small bit surprised Breslow is taking a POBO job, especially with an org like Boston. I know he's had the Assistant GM title for a couple seasons, but given the Director of Pitching role he still holds I never considered him to be as tied in to e.g. trade talks and contract negotiations like Hawkins is. I don't have reason to think he'd be *bad* at those things since he's by all accounts a really bright guy, but normally you don't see a guy getting tabbed to run the Red Sox without being closer to roster construction than I understand Breslow to be.

The same way any arbitration eligible player is. If you have less than 6 years of service time you can't be a free agent, even if you signed a multi-year deal. As mentioned that does get waived in some cases for International FA, but aside from that possibility, the situation is no different than Alzolay being a Cubs player next year(and the year after) despite only having a one year contract.

Kim only has 3 years of service time. Some international FAs have it in their contracts that they go straight to FA upon the completion of that contract, but it's not a universal provision. Especially given that Kim didn't really sign a contract for FA dollars it's very possible he didn't have the leverage or interest in insisting on that provision, which means he'd be arbitration eligible in 2025 and 2026.

Is it clear that Kim would actually reach free agency if he declines the mutual option? That's more common with Japanese players but Kim coming from Korea and signing a more modest deal makes me think he's probably still arb eligible.

you can just say you don't think Wesneski has much trade value, you don't have to exaggerate with absolutist language that is obviously not true.

Especially if the Red Sox are cutting bait I don't mind Dalbec as a slightly higher cost Rios, but did that adjustment/improvement actually happen in practice? He had a 34% K rate at AAA, and as best as I can tell it didn't really improve over the course of the season. He struck out 51% of the time in his September cameo in MLB for good measure. I think it's more likely he just doesn't have what's needed to make contact at this level.

The Cubs had 8 different guys start at least 7 games last year, they can't and won't be afraid of not having a clear opening for Wicks or other younger SP in the opening day rotation because it's certain that will come through injury or ineffectiveness. The bigger problem is not of rotation slots but simply the likely amount of money they have to spend in total. Unless you find a really smart trade for a strong SP without much cost, it gets hard to both add that additional SP and make the investments they want to make in the offense and the pen.

To me the nature of Leiter's situation makes him an obvious yes to tender a contract. He's worth it even if he's somewhere shy of his 2023 peak, his money isn't going to prohibit other moves or make the team too shy to add a guaranteed/non-optionable contract elsewhere in the pen, and you have the whole of spring training to see if the splitter is back. Plus you never know what injuries or other machinations might impact the shape of the pen between the offseason and opening day. Unless they have some reason to think the odds of Leiter not having the split or losing it for the rest of the season again are very high, you bring him back. As for Wesneski, I'm not quite willing to give up the ghost on him starting, partially because I don't particularly believe in Assad's 2023, partially because I do think Smyly's 2023 signals that he should be a SP option of last resort, but mostly because despite the velocity uptick Wesneski was not actually good in the pen. He was exclusively in short relief the last 4 weeks of the season, and while the 12 K in 11.2 IP will do the trick, the 8 BB and 3 HR(to say nothing of being generally hittable with 12 H) will not. Whatever his repertoire issues that plagued him in a starter's role don't seem to have an immediate fix by going in short bursts, so better to keep him as a stretched out long reliever or in the Iowa rotation to get more reps and let others like Smyly whose stuff has played up in short outings move up the bullpen pecking order.

The year is 2035, the Cubs have won 9 straight world series and the Cardinals have folded their franchise in shame, while an AI of Rob Manfred introduces new rules aimed to curb the Cubs dominance. Cubs fans still re-litigate the decision to non-tender Schwarber at least once every 6 weeks.

He had a 5.9 fWAR season, only the 2nd time he's cleared 4.6. He could be a win and a half worse than this year and still be equivalent to what a Top 10 NL SP was this year. Maybe he'll be a 6 win pitcher again, I'm not trying to tell you that there's something super unsustainable or lucky that he was doing. But as a matter of probability, for pitchers and for players of Wheeler's age in general, you'd expect him to not be particularly close to 2023 from a value standpoint. Goldschmidt in particular is an excellent comparison, he's had an incredible career and last year had an MVP caliber season. He was also an excellent hitter and overall player this year, but even that meant a significant loss of value over the previous season.

I would also love to have Wheeler, the point is not to demean him in particular. But in the context of 'could the Phillies have SP issues next year', it remains true that he could be healthy and an excellent pitcher and still be 2 WAR worse, on top of other risks that group has. To continue the comparison to Arenado/Goldschmidt, the takeaway is not that they are not good or that the team is suckers for keeping them or anything like that, it's that mid-30s performances that jump way up are very likely to come back down, and teams trying to win need to hedge against that. The Phillies rotation that had very good health, has no immediate impact coming thanks to Painter's TJS, and may or may not include Nola doesn't really have that hedge for Wheeler alone, never mind those other things. And so that could(emphasis on could) be the thing that trips them up or brings them down a peg next year.

He’ll be 34 next year and is coming off his 2nd best season. The dynamic is similar to Arenado and Goldschmidt after 2022, they can still be very good the next year and bleed multiple wins of value.

I think the rotation is the place where they could have some problems. They'll either need to pay Nola or replace him, Painter is unlikely to impact 2024 given he barely pitched in AA and didn't have TJS til late July, Wheeler is good but you wouldn't bet on him repeating his 2023, and they also had remarkable rotation health on the whole.

I've assumed that a Hendricks extension probably looks like something in the realm of 2/25, probably with a club or (tightly) vesting option. It doesn't save a ton off the luxury tax and it might be a few more dollars than he would get on the open market, but it feels like something that matches the team's appreciation of Hendricks and recognition of his healthy standard of production while still giving that desired LT discount and pricing in his downside risk.

Castellanos was just as productive a hitter as Mike Tauchman this year. Schwarber was as productive(less if you consider baserunning) as Ian “I don’t know if I love the bat in LF” Happ. This is ignoring that they are both DH’s when not in the batters box. Non-tendering Schwarber multiple years ago was a poor decision, but there’s no need to pine after the 2023 versions of him and Castellanos, regardless of price.

Nitpick: I do feel it is definitely a 16 million dollar decision. The payroll number being optimized is the LT number and for that the option is 16 or 0. This isn’t true of every team though (e.g. the white sox might ultimately make a strange trade or two because of this) As far as Hendricks himself goes, if I’m still in the mode where I’m be planning out an ideal offseason, it’s difficult for me to have him and Stroman back unless they’re gonna go like 30+ million over the LT. I don’t think they’ll do that unless it involves a lot of short term guaranteed money(Soto, Alonso, and Glasnow being potential examples), so to me this is mostly a matter of trying to predict Stroman’s behavior. Good thing he’s a boring dude who never acts unpredictably, right?

The Cubs scored more runs than the Phillies. On a park adjusted basis they hit about the same number of home runs. The Cubs had a better pythagorean record. The Phillies most valuable position player this year was a pre-arb guy who would have been the 4th most valuable on the Cubs. The only Phillies player who would make a combined top 5 of those teams from 2023 wasn’t even mentioned in this article(Wheeler). The lesson of the Phillies is that big market clubs don’t need to wait until the perfect moment to add, similar to how the Cubs started stacking additions with Stroman and Seiya. Also that the playoffs are random and bullpens are important, as that’s the main difference between them at this point in their competitive cycles.

Woodruff is one year from FA. The Brewers very well could non-tender him, though I would guess it’s more likely they agree to a short extension that makes it a more win/win proposition. While there’s a business case for it, kicking him to the curb in this situation is the type of thing that can hurt with other players.

Soto has over 3300 PA with a 50% GB rate and he's hitting .284/.321/.524 with 30+ HR per full season. Are you afraid of him having a downturn in form 6 years in where the groundballs finally come home to roost? Or does the 150 wRC+ mean less because more of the balls are hit on the ground?

He also didn't start this season til Memorial Day because of an oblique issue that he re-aggravated in rehab. I'm not super scared off of him because of it given it's one year, but in a perfect world if you add him then you want the rotation to be deep enough that Wicks is the 6 starter, and that can become an issue with the amount of resources you need to expend to get there.

2024 is a player option, and given his age and lack of big contracts in his past, my guess is he's gonna opt out and try to capitalize on that 2023 to get an 8 figure deal.