Transmogrified Tiger

Wiggins followed a pretty common progression of relieving as a freshman and then starting as a sophomore, and IIRC was thought to be in line to be Arkansas' Friday starter this season before he got hurt. Whether he stays a starter depends on performance, but there's no question he's gonna be used as a SP.

Do you have that mention handy? A little surprised that would be the takeaway considering his college coach left him at SS of all places. But to the broader point, I mentioned it elsewhere but you can't do any roster planning assuming anything more than zero from Shaw in 2024. He only had 15 AA games and has been swing happy there, there's likely multiple rounds of adjustments before he's ready to take on a primary role, and the optimistic version of that timeline is more of a September call up.

Haven't noticed anything unusual here in Greater St. Louis.

Checking on Neris I had almost a twin reaction to when I did so for Justin Turner. Oh this could potentially be a good move...wait he turned down a player option for how much? Maybe I'm a dummy but I feel like some middle class free agents are going to be disappointed at the end of the carousel this year with how much TV money uncertainty there is(on top of a weak class in general).

Genuinely curious what the plan is for 3B. We haven't heard any rumblings of being connected with Chapman, which were it not for the QO I might think was a bit underrated in it's likelihood(maybe if Soto is the big bat and it depresses Chapman's market?). If Madrigal isn't viewed as the primary option, does that simply mean he's gonna be in a timeshare with someone like he was with Wisdom/Mastro? If Candelario isn't the guy, then there aren't a lot of obvious options. Maybe an expanded deal with the Marlins includes Jon Berti? Maybe they're willing to gamble some real money on Moncada's health compared to other multi-year FA bat options?

In 2024 alone, Soto is materially less expensive than Ohtani, that is the bulk of the motivation for saying that you have more room to make another more substantive addition. The other, minor reason another more substantive addition would be more likely is that Jed (like most GMs) is mindful of how many long term deals he gives out in a single offseason. Offseasons that imply the Cubs are going to sign 3 or more deals of 4+ years are probably not going to stand up to reality. In the above example where Soto replaces Ohtani the Cubs have done none, which means that inhibition will not exist. It wouldn't be a huge problem if you swapped Ohtani back in for Soto since he's only one, that's why the bulk of the reason is the simple AAV difference between them. So to summarize, 90% of the reason another substantial signing would be more likely would be having more 2024 money, 10% would be having even cleaner books in 2025 and beyond, and 0% would be about having different budgets or some other pre-conceived thought you had going into the thread.

This one in particular was the most comprehensive look I've seen of this type of analysis, so kudos to Petriello for chasing down the stuff about 2 strike approach and the drop in K rate. I guess for me when you look at this stuff you end up doing one of two things. You ignore interactivity and end up doing twitter-level superficial analysis under the guise of advanced metrics(this is how most people interact with expected/batted ball numbers), or you chase down the interactivity and you end up in a place where you've abstracted away so much you aren't grouping things together meaningfully and/or you're now looking at such a small/disparate sample that it could just as easily be noise. Like part of the thesis for Bellinger is over-performing his hard hit contact quality in less than 150 batted balls. It doesn't take much variance and randomness to start moving that pretty materially, and there are other potentially sustainable factors that could be playing outsized roles here too(one example: the size of the Dodger stadium OF v. Wrigley). All that said, I don't disagree with the idea that regression is coming for Bellinger. I just tend to think it's likely to be more of a 10 point drop in wRC+ than a 25-30 point drop.

This is how I end up reacting to a lot of contact quality/expected outcomes analysis That's almost certainly irrational/homerism on my part, but I think that while this did make a better effort than most of the takes I see in this vein, I think it atomizes outcomes to a degree where you are looking at silos of results independent of their interactivity

Another forum I frequent curates NL Central answers to the MLBTR chats, and every time I read them I'm not sure why I give their opinions any credence. This is not a criticism of posting it btw, especially at this point in the offseason all fodder is good fodder. But I'm also not sure if I trust the minds behind '12/264 for Cody Bellinger' by default when it comes to valuations.

I don't think there's an objective answer, but the counter-argument you could make is to ask if Wicks is the guy from his first 4 MLB starts(22.2 IP, 1.98 ERA, 15/5 K/BB, 1 HR) or the guy from his last 3 MLB starts(12 IP, 9.00 ERA, 9/6 K/BB, 4 HR). It's not too tough to draw a line from Wicks' less than elite stuff to some pretty unflattering performances once teams had a little exposure to him at the MLB level. Or even if it's not something particularly systemic about the trend, it's a stark reminder that his profile doesn't have as much margin for error.

From a quick search I think this is a 'everyone wants to watch the Warriors' situation. Look at the starting ticket prices for the Hawks schedule that ESPN is advertising and how much of an outlier the games against the Warriors and Lakers are: https://www.espn.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/atl

I will say that swapping Soto for Ohtani in the "mega bat + Hoskins + Morel SP trade" plan does leave you with plenty of financial wiggle room, especially since both Hoskins and Soto are not long term commitments. You could easily add Imanaga to that list, or aim a little lower and get the deluxe version of the RP you prefer, get a 3B, etc.

Shaw has 15 games at AA under his belt and while the results are good, he's still very swing happy and upper level pitchers are going to adjust and force adjustments in kind. For roster building purposes you have to assume he's a zero for this year, and practically speaking he's likely on the PCA track of maybe getting a September callup.

Canario had a lower wRC+ this year at Iowa than Happ's career MLB line. His Iowa line (in 161 PA) was 7th best of Iowa hitters who got at least 100 PA. He's hit better in the past pre-injury, but he's always been a guy who had an uphill battle to be an above average/starting corner OF, and that remains true.

As for Caissie and his defensive home, the way I think of this is that he is in a race against his body. With his frame and starting point in athleticism, he's very likely to be someone you want at 1B/DH by the time he's arb eligible. Maybe there's a year or two where he's MLB ready and he's an okay defender, but considering we don't think of him as a strong OF today, it's a narrow path to walk. Considering Seiya is signed for 3 of those years and other players in the upper minors if they succeed offensively would be higher on the defensive spectrum(Alcantara, Canario), I think it's very fair to think of his primary MLB role as not taking place into the OF. Doesn't mean that he needs to play 1B at Iowa right away or that there's zero chance he'll play an inning in the grass at Wrigley, but for roster building purposes and considering where folks are going to play the bulk of the time? 1B/DH for me.

I've had 1908's offseason(Ohtani, Hoskins, Morel for SP) in my head for the last 24 hours too, and especially if Ohtani doesn't want to drag out negotiations I think that's a pretty good pattern to pursue because of how few dependencies there are, especially if there's any real chance a Soto deal transpires after Ohtani decides(which feels likely if Ohtani signs relatively early?). You're also far enough under your likely spending ceiling that you can be selective on if you want to invest more dollars in the pen, add another SP for safety, or put real money into 3B. That said, the Morel for a pitcher paradigm does have some dependencies. One is that some other trade, in particular Soto/Alonso, does really need Morel in order to happen. The other is if the deal is not substantively a 1 for 1 trade. That's less patterned after Moreno for Varsho, but also when you look at the rotation, it may make more sense to pay more to get a Luzardo(or a Gilbert if available). Those other pieces are not only not available for other deals but lower your depth so your interest in further deals wanes too.

I think Hoskins is the clear leader of that tier. I'm not cowed by the injury or the Phillies not pursuing him, a knee injury in spring training I don't see as being a lingering impact, and the Phillies decision is obvious unless they're trying to run a Mets payroll. Being a 1 year deal at 1B fills a need without jeopardizing any moves higher on the food chain save for probably Alonso, and while Alonso is a little bit better I'm not sure he's 5+ million and trade pieces better. Other names I'd potentially add to this list: JD Martinez: Another professional hitter that while I wouldn't expect his 135 wRC+ from 2023, I think he's probably a better bet than the non-Hoskins names above to be over 120. Would be a short term deal and only cost money, and his starting point is lower than Turner's(plus he's not going to hold the illusion he still provides defensive value) Anthony Santander: He's been nearly a Hoskins level bat from both sides of the plate for 2 years running and wouldn't have obscene trade cost due to being Arb 3. Plus as a late bloomer his arb salary is in the Polanco range. However, this made more sense when the Cubs had a decent fit for the Orioles on the pitching side(Stroman),maybe if Morel goes in a deal for a pitcher and the O's really like Brown or Assad? Brandon Drury: What are the Angels gonna try to be next year? If they make him available he's probably cheaper, shorter term, and a bit more certain production than Candelario. Right handed IF is the only real downside. Other Minnesota bats: Polanco seems most likely to get traded, but they still have a lot of hitters lying around they can't/won't give full time PA to. Solano probably won't repeat his 2023 but is a decent professional hitter, Larnach is an inexpensive/upside play, I continue to pine after Kirilloff if they want to try to make a more substantial deal, and conversely if Kirilloff is hands-off then how attached could they really be to Wallner?

The salary difference between Ohtani + Imanaga v. Soto + Yamamoto is probably not all that great, so if you can get Alonso in scenario 1 you can probably do it in scenario 2. Especially since in 2 you aren't losing a QO pick and can afford to give up a lil more in trade.

This is the source for those comments: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/38841651/mlb-2023-2024-top-50-free-agents-rankings-contract-projections I'm guessing teams would be pretty hesitant to offer an opt-out after 2025 and a 55-60M AAV considering he won't pitch in 2024, but Ohtani is a singular player and free agency only takes one.

It's because the team signing a player with a QO attached gives up a high draft pick and the associated signing pool. It's not a coincidence that consistently successful teams, even those with big, big payrolls, generally only sign QO free agents when they're losing a QO'd player to mitigate the impact to their draft pool.

The Ross quote can also be seen through the lens of not trying to put the weight of a playoff chase on a new call up's shoulders, it's baffling how many people have latched onto it. I especially don't get how we can say that the playing time was poorly distributed with the benefit of hindsight. PCA got stuffed in a locker by MLB pitchers and I think made more outs on the bases than he had hits + BB(plus Ross still went out of his way to play him). Canario is just a guy and the alternatives hit perfectly fine. Wicks was a rotation mainstay, Palencia never got more run than he did in September, and I guess Luke Little could've thrown a couple more innings? So many people had a starting point in their thinking and because the team wasn't successful on the whole, no actual facts of the situation would change their perception past that starting point.

This isn't perfect, but maybe useful. The last 2 offseasons, 10 of the 28 players receiving a QO ended up back with their previous team. Only 2 of the 12 players with the same or greater AAV as the QO did so.

Also Nico just signed a pre-FA extension, which on top of being a bad look if they traded him is a pretty strong indicator of what the front office thinks of his fit on the team. And you have to earmark one of 3 non-C bench roles for someone capable of playing SS without him. I know we're playing thought experiments moreso than advocating for it, but zero chance they'd go the route of trading Nico to make room for Morel.