Transmogrified Tiger

I'm not really interested in trying to draw specific lines on what counts as a 'star' or not, what you're saying is fine and not at all unfair. If I were to distill what I'm getting at into a few bullets to try and clarify, it'd look like this: Stars are valuable because they concentrate a lot of value in a single spot, but the Cubs have a fair amount of value concentration in their team and in particular their position player group. This isn't a bunch of players scraping league average that need Soto's bat to make them good, as Bertz highlighted about the offense. The Cubs were basically a 90 win team/division winning caliber team last year by underlying performance, so while capital S Stars are naturally preferred, maintaining and marginally improving last year's squad(while not a perfect scenario) is still a very good team Where the Cubs do have an acute need, and the mentioned capital S stars would help most, is filling lineup holes where they had poor offensive performance with very good performance. There's still a substantial upgrade in getting a Hoskins/Lowe caliber bat, especially if you can get more than one. I also acknowledge there's a Bellinger backfill to account for too since Tauchman/PCA are not expected to crush the ball, but that circles back to the previous point about how the status quo is still a high level.

I think this is a cynical interpretation of the motivations involved. It might be right, but just as likely is he's a very private person potentially negotiating a move to a new city and with a new organization where he wants to be able to have trust in what they say(especially since he's not fluent in the language). Having that trust demonstrated by respecting his wishes for secrecy is not outrageous in that context.

This is half devil's advocate, so take it in that spirit, but do the Cubs have a fair amount of star power already? Last year Hoerner and Swanson were both a hair under 5 win players despite not having particularly good offensive seasons for their standards(and Swanson has a 6 win season in his past). Seiya was Top 25 in wRC+ and his second half was at a 5 win level. They're graduating a Top 25 prospect next year who will basically be another Hoerner in terms of the shape and magnitude of value if he can be averageish offensively. What the Cubs *need* is more really good hitters, because they were 24th in wRC+ for 1B and 25th for DH. Obviously superstar position players are mostly really good hitters, and if you can get a superstar of the Ohtani or Soto tier you should try to do so, but additions like Hoskins, or Pete Alonso if that kicks up again, or even Brandon Lowe can do a fair amount to raise the team's ceiling given that they have a lot of value monsters that just don't necessarily do it with power. On the pitching side, they have last year's Cy Young finalist who was 7th in fWAR among pitchers, that's a pretty good start! Also the strongest rumor they've been involved with is Glasnow, who is a Top 5-10 SP in baseball when healthy. Plenty of upside still on the table even if Glasnow isn't a long term deal. I know it doesn't fill us with the warm and fuzzies like signing Ohtani or Yamamoto or trading for Soto would, but I do think the collective impact of e.g. a Glasnow trade and Hoskins signing is probably being underrated.

I dunno, I don't subscribe to BA so I can't see their ranking of him, but their '2027 lineup' lists him as a 5 starter behind King and Nester Cortes. Pipeline and Fangraphs barely have him in their Top 5 Yankees prospects(which isn't a system dripping with premium talent), and the only Top 100 placement I see across Pipeline, Fangraphs, and Prospects Live is Pipeline sneaking him in at 99. I'm much more comfortable saying that is more comparable to what Wicks' pedigree was(especially being a changeup artist himself) than being a no doubt Top 50 prospect or on Horton's tier(which is at least a half step higher than that).

Did Thorpe have a bump in velo? I wouldn't consider him close to Horton's tier of prospect without one, if anything that profile would then be a closer match to Wicks. How much of an overpay that is then depends on what you think of King. Definitely some uncertainty about whether he's a starter or reliever, and he's only got team control for 2 years so the fact that he hasn't exceeded last year's 104 IP since 2018 is not a point in his favor either. If it's those 2 I don't think it's all that far off, but since the Cubs don't have a super clean comparable to King, you'd have to hope the Padres had similar feelings about Assad or Wesneski. And quite frankly I'm not sure how jazzed I'd be about one of them and Wicks being the deal(though I'd have to think on it).

I've been thinking about this and I do think we probably overrate multi-year certainty a bit as fans. Look at 2021 v. 2023 and see how much variation there is or players who drop off or jump up in production. This is especially true for free agents who are older and have more significant dollars attached. And especially if you are a big market team that is considered a contender, there are always options to fill those gaps productively on the market, Glasnow and Hoskins don't represent a special opportunity in that regard. Now I would prefer not to have your *best* players constantly be on this treadmill, which is what Soto and Glasnow would be. But as we discussed with Soto in particular you can't always choose the shape of your upgrades so this may be what this offseason offers. As an aside, maybe a topic for the Hoskins thread, but I'm starting to wonder if maybe he's gonna get a multi-year guarantee after all.

Wonder if Bruce is thinking in terms of nominal payroll or the total LT payroll. 240-250 in LT payroll is basically table stakes for my expectations, if you're gonna go into the LT then there's no sense in only going in by less than 5 million(which is what 240 million would be), especially with as many high dollar 1-2 year deals that are being considered in FA and trade right now. If that 240-250 is nominal though, then you're talking more about being close to the 3rd threshold(the draft penalty threshold), which I would've previously assumed was probably only possible with Ohtani.

Gonna have to make a new one with the No line pointing to "I knew it, Jed probably offered him 3/15"

Mooney/Sharma

Mooney/Sharma

Mooney/Sharma

It is extremely funny to watch this thread get populated with contradictory information while people go "well that settles it, the thing that reinforces my prior conceptions was right again!"

With talk like this, Shohei is definitely not signing with ESPN https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39049998/shohei-ohtani-secret-free-agency-mlb-dodgers-blue-jays

Big afternoon for Bob

If Roberts actually hosed them here I will never stop laughing at him even if they win the next 3 world series (he did not and they will not)

Lowe has a career 126 wRC+, so you've got a body of work of a strong bat to start with. Add on to that, you can make the argument his relative down years have an injury-based explanation that has since passed. His line after returning from injury in July through the end of season: 235 PA, .254/.353/.483, 135 wRC+. Lowe isn't a wizard with the glove, but you can make the argument he's a better option at 3B or 1B than Morel as well. Plus the LHH bit helps with lineup balance as you mention. I wouldn't trade Morel for Glasnow or for Lowe straight up, but in a deal for both I'd have to seriously consider it given Glasnow's upside, and what I'd expect from Lowe at a reasonable dollar amount for 1-3 years.

*taps the sign*

I like Hoskins quite a bit. 126 career wRC+ is simply not a common caliber of bat that is out there, at least not without enormous commitments or other downside risks(e.g. Brandon Lowe's recent form) His contract isn't going to materially block any moves, won't have a long enough commitment to scare off other additions, and since Philly didn't QO him you can do that after 2024-25 and get a pick on the back end if he hits reasonably well(or get a de facto team option) He's been a one org person, which I always like as an opportunity to have new voices help potentially unlock a new level The downsides for me are that he's probably gonna be expensive enough that I think if you get him and you want a playoff SP and a better-than-Hoskins bat, you start having to make tradeoffs pretty quickly with the assumption that you aren't pushing into the Ohtani zone of LT penalties. Soto + Glasnow + Hoskins would be great but I'm unsure if they want to go into the 2nd level of penalties for that type of offseason, at which point you're either not getting Soto or you're making severe compromises elsewhere. Also, Hoskins probably wants a one year or 1+ option deal, and considering the other high end talents potentially available seem to mostly be rentals, it's a lot of potential 1 year uncertainty for your main additions. Rentals as a concept are fine and Soto + Glasnow + Hoskins would make the team a strong playoff/division contender, but having to replace all of them would be a chore.

Agreed, what I was getting at was less that avoiding those deals is the right call all the time, but that Swanson's signing is not a function of always wanting the cheaper contract or lower AAV. They've clearly shown a willingness with the folks I mentioned above and in particular with Bellinger to not be scared off by marginal cost for the right addition.

At a minimum I very much doubt they ranked Swanson 4th of the four, given the defensive focus they've had I doubt they would rather have had Bogaerts even with equal contracts. But it's not about which one is cheaper, that's an oversimplification and has been borne out in their investment in not only Swanson, but Stroman, Seiya, and Taillon. For better or worse, Jed is extremely mindful of the length of deals and how well they will age and inhibit future moves. Call it smart actuarial thinking, call it overcorrective Heyward PTSD, but I think it's a very big factor. The 4 SS signed through ages 40, 40, 35, and 35, guess which two Jed was most heavily linked with through last offseason?

It's definitely a double down on depth, but if you aren't getting one of Soto/Ohtani, there are worse ways you can go. Glasnow when healthy is a Top 10, maybe Top 5 SP in the league, and with Imanaga you go 5 deep with guys who have decent aspirations to be 3 win SP(Glasnow/Steele/Hendricks/Imanaga/Taillon), plus Wicks in AAA and Horton behind him. And because you've beefed up the rotation the benefit to the pen compounds since the need to ever start Smyly, Assad, Wesneski, or even Brown* goes way down, plus you're adding to the back end externally. * One of Assad/Wesneski/Brown is probably gone for Glasnow On offense assuming Morel doesn't go for Glasnow or Polanco(and he shouldn't need to) then you have a much deeper every day lineup that can absorb PCA's growing pains without a risky back half of the lineup that some other offseason permutations have. Hoerner/Happ/Seiya/Hoskins/Polanco/Swanson/Morel/C/CF has a whole lot of good hitters and/or 110+ wRC+ bats to keep rallies going and avoid being too easy to pitch to.

I really wish I could find the "you know who is interested in my client? *puffs cigar* the Chicago Cubs" tweet

I think that is attributing a whole lot more meaning than what actually happened. Is the decision to throw to him a bad one? No, it's 4th and 2, there are basically zero consequences for an incomplete or picked off pass. Did he throw it intelligently? Yes, he put air under it for reasons mentioned on the broadcast by Collinsworth and probably also increasing the chance of PI. Is he aiming for that spot based on the trajectory of the triangle of defenders who were all in the area? Almost certainly not. It's a fluky/lucky play and will not be repeatable in any real way, which is the point if we're talking in the context of evaluating Love's progress as a QB.

I know very little about analyzing QBs and only have really watched Love for part of yesterday's game, but he seemed like someone who was very competent with time to throw and then the throw decisions and accuracy went way downhill when he was under any pressure. Lots of back foot and awkward throws in those situations, which to the OL's credit didn't seem very common in the first half, when they went 2 for 2 on TDs. Second half they got a TD after a "no no no yes" 4th down throw, and then I didn't see the end of the game but apparently only got 2 FGs in the remaining 3 possessions.

Weird, hit the same thing on desktop but mobile loading the tweet lets me autoplay. Bruce says he thinks the Glasnow trade is going to happen, and potentially this week. Also some less substantial commentary on Yamamoto and Bellinger.