Transmogrified Tiger

Agreed, what I was getting at was less that avoiding those deals is the right call all the time, but that Swanson's signing is not a function of always wanting the cheaper contract or lower AAV. They've clearly shown a willingness with the folks I mentioned above and in particular with Bellinger to not be scared off by marginal cost for the right addition.

At a minimum I very much doubt they ranked Swanson 4th of the four, given the defensive focus they've had I doubt they would rather have had Bogaerts even with equal contracts. But it's not about which one is cheaper, that's an oversimplification and has been borne out in their investment in not only Swanson, but Stroman, Seiya, and Taillon. For better or worse, Jed is extremely mindful of the length of deals and how well they will age and inhibit future moves. Call it smart actuarial thinking, call it overcorrective Heyward PTSD, but I think it's a very big factor. The 4 SS signed through ages 40, 40, 35, and 35, guess which two Jed was most heavily linked with through last offseason?

It's definitely a double down on depth, but if you aren't getting one of Soto/Ohtani, there are worse ways you can go. Glasnow when healthy is a Top 10, maybe Top 5 SP in the league, and with Imanaga you go 5 deep with guys who have decent aspirations to be 3 win SP(Glasnow/Steele/Hendricks/Imanaga/Taillon), plus Wicks in AAA and Horton behind him. And because you've beefed up the rotation the benefit to the pen compounds since the need to ever start Smyly, Assad, Wesneski, or even Brown* goes way down, plus you're adding to the back end externally. * One of Assad/Wesneski/Brown is probably gone for Glasnow On offense assuming Morel doesn't go for Glasnow or Polanco(and he shouldn't need to) then you have a much deeper every day lineup that can absorb PCA's growing pains without a risky back half of the lineup that some other offseason permutations have. Hoerner/Happ/Seiya/Hoskins/Polanco/Swanson/Morel/C/CF has a whole lot of good hitters and/or 110+ wRC+ bats to keep rallies going and avoid being too easy to pitch to.

I really wish I could find the "you know who is interested in my client? *puffs cigar* the Chicago Cubs" tweet

I think that is attributing a whole lot more meaning than what actually happened. Is the decision to throw to him a bad one? No, it's 4th and 2, there are basically zero consequences for an incomplete or picked off pass. Did he throw it intelligently? Yes, he put air under it for reasons mentioned on the broadcast by Collinsworth and probably also increasing the chance of PI. Is he aiming for that spot based on the trajectory of the triangle of defenders who were all in the area? Almost certainly not. It's a fluky/lucky play and will not be repeatable in any real way, which is the point if we're talking in the context of evaluating Love's progress as a QB.

I know very little about analyzing QBs and only have really watched Love for part of yesterday's game, but he seemed like someone who was very competent with time to throw and then the throw decisions and accuracy went way downhill when he was under any pressure. Lots of back foot and awkward throws in those situations, which to the OL's credit didn't seem very common in the first half, when they went 2 for 2 on TDs. Second half they got a TD after a "no no no yes" 4th down throw, and then I didn't see the end of the game but apparently only got 2 FGs in the remaining 3 possessions.

Weird, hit the same thing on desktop but mobile loading the tweet lets me autoplay. Bruce says he thinks the Glasnow trade is going to happen, and potentially this week. Also some less substantial commentary on Yamamoto and Bellinger.

Maybe that rumor about MHJ getting a zillion dollars in NIL to stay is true? UCLA's Freshman QB also entered the portal and since OSU was already one of his (many, many) recruiting offers and he's from Detroit, it's very possible they're trying to line up an immediate upgrade on McCord.

Signing Ohtani requires the Braves to either dramatically cut payroll elsewhere, or to go to a payroll level previously only reached by last year's Mets. They have a lot of guarantees in future seasons already too, so while you can maybe squint and see it as a temporary jump(e.g. Morton + Ozuna is an Ohtani shaped role and a big chunk of an Ohtani AAV), it would either require sustained payroll levels we have only seen by the Cohen Mets(who immediately backtracked from them) and the Yankees, or pretty significant handcuffs over the next several seasons.

Okay.

Louisville was #10 before losing to a middling SEC team and then again to FSU so yes they would absolutely have the opportunity to make the playoff in similar circumstances. Also, the other conference title games (and OSU/Michigan) would still have stakes since a playoff bye is on the line.

I have a high amount of confidence Horton pitches in the big league pen this year, potentially meaningful innings too. We know he's probably not ramped to start the whole year, we know Jed really likes breaking in pitchers via the bullpen, and while there are promising options for MIRP(Smyly/Assad/Wesneski) we shouldn't have high confidence that for whatever reason(trade, underperformance, injury) there won't be a need in that role. Caveat: Counsell may lean less heavily on MIRP than Ross so maybe that part matters a bit less. I think the telltale sign for Horton is how many net SP they add relative to today's roster, inclusive of Assad/Wesneski/Brown. If it's zero then they probably are prepared to let it ride with Horton starting games through the season, if it's two he's probably ticketed for the pen, if it's one then it probably depends on the details. Brown I just don't really know. Don't know if he'll be in the organization in March, don't know how he'l bounce back from his injury and if his AAA walk rate will calm down, don't know how many innings the org wants to get out of him this year. I suspect that he's in a bit of a bizarro goldilocks zone where he'll quickly be surpassed by Horton if the team wants impact, but won't show enough improvement in command to be near the top of the pecking order for reliability relative to the trio above or even other AAA RP options(Little, Roberts, Palencia, etc). So his fate may be dependent on an uncommonly good outcome from him individually or a series of negative circumstances from others.

I haven't thought deeply about this but I think I prefer the path of pursuing Glasnow, even if for no other reason than he's really and truly "available", while these Astros rumors seem to be them signaling for some other team to impress them more than really needing to get a deal done. That said, Valdez would afford you more flexibility in how you approach those "Tier 2" additions on top of a big bat and the SP. If that's the difference in getting Hoskins v. getting more into the Mancini zone in salary that has more collapse risk, I surely wouldn't hate that on top of Valdez having the extra year of control.

Can't wait for Ohtani to go to the Rockies because Shohei loves mountains and they got their biennial inclination to tell a random Free Agent "one jillion dollars" without any semblance of a plan.

Please continue to share stuff relevant to big moves in those respective threads(Ohtani, Glasnow, etc), but for more speculative stuff or news unrelated to the Cubs, pop it in here.

Locking for the winter meetings since daily chatter will be focused in a thread there. Will reopen afterwards.

Using the Committee's rankings, you have on one hand, a team whose best victories are v. #13, v. #16, @ #26, and no others in their Top 33. In comparison, you have a team who lost v. #3, and had victories v. #6, v. #11, v. #13, v. #25, @ #33. I think independent of margin of victory or injuries there's an argument Bama is the right choice on resume grounds when a quarter of their games are against better teams than Florida State saw all year(and they replicated FSU's best win). Certainly not black and white though.

Michigan v. Bama and Washington v. Texas, FSU is left out

Hell is Real never disappoints

The committee consistently put Georgia as the best undefeated team and Texas has never gotten above 7th in their rankings, I don't think it's at all certain that Georgia losing to Bama by 3 and Texas handling Oklahoma State is bridging the gap between them.

Welcome!

Yeah I think we'll probably do something that replaces Cubs offseason chit chat for that period since there may be a lot of non-Cubs movement plus more speculative Cubs stuff that doesn't necessarily warrant a new/existing thread.

I stopped following it because they started playing too fast and loose with the definition, but if you love those types of bloopers then I have the twitter account for you: https://twitter.com/wpiootbgw/

Welcome! I'm not local to the area any longer so I'll let those folks chime in more about travel logistics, but I would say generally that Chicago + Milwaukee is a perfectly reasonable plan for a baseball trip, as long as you're okay renting a car you shouldn't have any issues planning a trip where you see games in both cities.