Transmogrified Tiger

Hoyer signed 5 different free agents to multi-year deals last year alone(7 players total if you want to count the multi-year extensions given to Nico and Happ). About a quarter of the current roster are on 3+ year guaranteed deals signed by Jed. The idea that he's artificially limiting himself to the bottom of the barrel since they don't require multi-year deals isn't backed by objective reality.

Morel has been in the Cubs organization for 7 years and played more 3B than any other position as a professional. He has been extremely, unplayably error prone at 3B(1300 pro innings) and SS(800 innings) while being better at 2B(600 innings.) I get that he's not played all that much there at the MLB level, but they are not flying blind if they make a call on his defensive home, especially as it relates to 3B.

If some team is really enamored with Amaya in trade talks, I wouldn't hate trading him and adding McGuire.

I don't want to be too pedantic but 7/203 (29M AAV) is extremely different than 6/240 (40M AAV)! Or said another way, for the purposes in which most of us are discussing the offseason and finances(luxury tax implications), the posting fee is irrelevant and you wouldn't want to include it as part of a hypothetical years/dollars that we typically are tossing around. It exists and it's good to remember in considering how high a team might go, but once YY signs it's borderline meaningless for fan purposes.

There is maybe an outcome in an offseason that already includes e.g. trading for Soto along with signing Hoskins and Yamamoto where I can squint and see it making sense with Mateo. But mostly I think I prefer to roll with Madrigal if we're not investing in the position. It doesn't look like there's a huge delta in their defensive value at 3B, I'd expect Madrigal to be a more capable hitter(while Mateo underperforms his contact, even his xWOBA puts him at like an 85 wRC+ max for his MLB career), and while Mateo's base stealing is intriguing, Madrigal is not a slouch in that department either.

Really interesting Fangraphs interview with Luke Little: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cubs-prospect-luke-little-is-a-large-southpaw-with-low-slot-sweep/

Would very much disagree with this. Every season will have a handful of players who underperform, that's variance and not a solvable problem. The Cubs return over 10 players who on a full season basis were in the 1.5+ fWAR range last year, plus a Top 25 prospect in PCA and some additional depth who they may want to give another chance to(Canario, Mervis). They are not in a position to try to paper value over a larger number of roster spots, they're in a position where there are a maximum of 3 open lineup spots they need to maximize impact from. And more to the point, what do you think the marginal cost of a win is if you think 33 million for Soto 'arguably still has some surplus'? It's a bit over 20 million in surplus, which if we consult a 3rd party source like BBTV is coincidentally the surplus we'd expect from Morel over his team control.

The rumors that the Padres are going to be slashing payroll and that Soto is the likely move have originated in San Diego and been around since the trade deadline, regardless of where he would be going. The Yankees showed up as a potential destination in rumors before the Cubs the last few days. This is not a PR or Cubs-inspired phenomenon.

Not sure if Mizzou will be better or even as good as last year(they were abnormally good in close games including 2 buzzer beating 3s), but it should be fun continuing to have them play watchable basketball. With recruiting ticking up(it'll slip a bit but 247 has them with the 2nd ranked class atm) a year around the bubble would be fine with me especially given that this looks like the deepest the SEC has been in a while and last year was way ahead of schedule for Gates' first year in the program.

This is an arbitrary framing that doesn't really mean anything. Did Jed go all in on 2023? He spent 17 million on a 1 year reclamation project, signed multiple relievers to 1 year deals, and added multiple mid-30s guys to 2 year deals. Plus at the deadline he traded for a rental. The answer is he didn't by any real definition of the phrase, and by the same token trading away an averageish pre-arb major leaguer for a star isn't making a huge sacrifice in 2025 and beyond either even if he only has a draft pick and a bunch of spending money to show a year from now. Yes, it's a more competitively aggressive move than trading for someone with multiple years of team control or signing a player long term. Those options have tradeoffs too, trades having a higher player cost and paying FAs for post-prime/unproductive years. For all 3 we cannot make our perfect option in the lab and acquire them, we have to see what's actually available, and in this particular offseason there are not many alternatives to the impact that Soto would provide. I'm very open to other options, I don't *love* the treadmill of having to replace various players annually, and paying Soto his money will create more narrow paths with other acquisitions. But that doesn't mean that it's foolish or out of character to pursue him because of the caliber of player he is.

If you don’t make a move for an elite player unless it is maximally efficient, you will not acquire those players and struggle to make the leap unless you do something extremely uncommon through the farm. We can’t choose the exact shape of that player, and there is an opportunity cost to waiting given the window they’ve created for the next 3 years. The Cubs have built their roster to the point where they have enough depth and few enough holes that they will get more benefit from one 5 win player instead of two 3 win players. They have a number of the latter and it’s easier to stumble into the latter. They have an extremely deep farm system that you can expect to have a steady flow of the latter in the future. Soto being a terrible defender would be a lot more relevant if the team didn’t already have a number of good defenders and well rounded profiles. They are very well set up to take on Soto’s “lopsided” value since he doesn’t have to field and he provides a lineup anchor they cannot find elsewhere unless you want to pay an even higher cost for Ohtani.

The Cubs had the run differential of a 90 win team, and Soto is a cut above offensively anyone they have or can reasonably acquire(save for Ohtani). 2024 matters and while they shouldn't sell the farm for a slew of rentals, they should take advantage of opportunities to get rare players even if they aren't maximally efficient. Morel is an average to slightly above average player whose best positions have multi-year solutions on the roster(unless you think it's DH, in which case Morel is not really above average). Would it be better to trade Morel for a star player you have for longer term? Sure. Is that player out there, especially at 3B? That is far less clear, especially for the caliber of bat that Soto provides.

Counting stats can help us here, let's take wRC (not wRC+, just the cumulative value) as an example. Last year: Soto: 708 PA, 131 wRC Bellinger: 556 PA, 92 wRC Morel: 429 PA, 63 wRC Wisdom: 302 PA, 40 wRC Madrigal: 294 PA, 30 wRC This shows us that from an offensive perspective, Soto is so good that the other player in the tandem only needs to be as good as fringe roster guys in order to match. Plus this comparison includes an offensive level from Bellinger that we aren't really expecting to repeat, and obviously the goal will be to shoot higher than Madrigal/Wisdom with the other starting spot in this scenario. Yes there's a defensive consideration, but since we're talking about bottom of the defensive spectrum(and poor defenders at that) aside from Bellinger's CF(which we'd expect elite defense from via PCA for a chunk of the season anyway), that impact is muted. If you want to say it's not worth it for potentially one year of Soto that's one thing(I'd disagree but I get it), but if you want the best possible team in 2024 then given the roster and financial circumstances I think it points pretty clearly to Soto.

Some of those teams don't have a Morel caliber piece to offer in trade(Yankees and Mets for starters), others are not going to be spending big dollars on a bat over pitching(Cardinals, Phillies), some are less likely to pay a Morel-sized price for a potential 30 million dollar rental(Twins, Astros), and others still may be investing more time and energy in the pursuit of Ohtani(Dodgers, Mariners). Again, the takeaway is not that the only reasonable outcome is Soto going to the Cubs for Morel, but rather that the practical reality of the situation is that something centered around Morel is much closer to the best offer that gets put forward than it might appear. Fit is going to make a bigger difference than the average sell trade because the Padres are not giving up on competing for the next several years and prioritizing prospects(which would make the return more fungible across teams).

I do not want to go too far in the direction of saying that Morel is a special flower, but I think this overstates how many teams have a player with his characteristics(pre-arb, proven standard of production, some optimism for improvement) that isn't an untradeable cornerstone, along with having the money to pay Soto plus the need to prioritize him over other additions, and being in a competitive cycle where they'd give that player up for potentially one year of him.

Good stuff, I really like Naylor as a trade target, his name has caught my eye a few times in scanning for potential bats. On top of what you mentioned he also has only played for one org, which I always think of as a small bonus in an acquisition because it makes it a small bit more likely different/varied instruction may unlock something new in him. The problem I've run into with any Guardians trade targets is that I'm not sure what they are/what they want to be, so while I don't doubt the Cubs could be the winner for Naylor's services if he's made available, I struggle to come to a 'this is a realistic package that meets their needs' point because they have a deep system and are never at the extreme ends of the competitive spectrum.

That's fair, and it's definitely conspicuous how little they've let Morel play 3B. The one caveat I'd give is that that you could just as easily use Morel in a different trade(like for a SP) to help get to where you want to go. So even if you think Morel's future on the Cubs roster is doomed by his lack of defensive quality, there's still an inefficiency to sending him off to get a star bat that you have to pay 30+ million to (and for potentially only one year at that). I'm not saying I wouldn't do it, there's only 2 hitters of Soto quality likely available and the other carries a higher cost than 30ish million + Morel, but Morel's pre-arb quality has enough value that I'm not gonna rush to say 'sold, who cares, get lost Chris' in reacting to that possibility.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Players with one year left on their deals and very healthy salaries have not returned a ton in trade for a long while. And also for a long while teams have not been willing to trade elite prospects for anything but very good players with cost control. Also the Padres are not the average seller of this caliber player in that they aren't trying to kick off a rebuilding cycle by asking for high ceiling guys in the low minors. If anything, and I really don't want this to be misinterpreted even though I know it will be, Morel is important enough to next year's Cubs team in terms of production for cost that you'd likely try to avoid making him the headliner on the Cubs side if you can make that work. That probably requires the Padres being extra big fans of one or more of Brown, Canario, and Wicks though.

I said this was a path "however narrow it may be", and closed by saying "it also goes without saying that the 2 mid-20's stars are going to be in high demand", obviously there will be no shortage of suitors for either. The (small) point I was making is that signing for one star and trading for another is likely to be easier than assuming you can sign two, when the suitors may not be similar for a trade v. FA, and signing one player increases the urgency for everyone else to bump up contract prices higher with stars that remain.

There is a path, however narrow it might be, of having an offseason like this and being in the range of 20 million above the LT(which IMO is probably the upper bound for the offseason): Sign Yamamoto Bring back Hendricks Trade Stroman for a secondary bat if he opts in(Santander, Polanco, etc), acquire the secondary bat if he opts out(the aforementioned names, Candelario, JDM, Garver) Trade for Soto Add a reliever or two (I'm currently favoring a trade of e.g. Mervis for Hunter Harvey) Which leaves you with something like: Hoerner, Happ, Soto, Suzuki, Swanson, Santander, Morel, Gomes, CF(Tauchman/PCA) Steele, Yamamoto, Taillon, Hendricks, Wicks(or Assad/Wesneski/Brown/Horton) Alzolay, Harvey, Merryweather, Smyly, Assad, & your favorite 3 others to round out the pen(Leiter, Palencia, Hughes, Little, Keegan, etc) The things I like about this are: It doesn't rely on winning multiple bidding wars and assuming you can sign multiple Top 5 FA when everyone wants to sign them The big additions are very young and in Jed's wheelhouse where he's more likely to be aggressive to get the deal over the line It doesn't necessarily commit all of the money that might be available for the next 3 years. Obviously you want to extend Soto, but even if he's not interested until next offseason it's still worthwhile and the other non-Yamamoto additions are sufficiently short term But it also goes without saying that the 2 mid-20's stars are going to be in high demand, and it's possible that the totality of this plan pushes you beyond where you're able to go payroll wise.

I dunno, if you're gonna hedge that Wicks and Triantos aren't high ceiling it seems like you can't equivocate in the opposite direction on Horton v. Lee. Lee's floor is a bit different than Wicks/Triantos but that's also a function of where in the 1st round he was picked. Of the (potential) departures, I'd be most bummed about Kantrovitz, and least concerned about Green(I don't want to say he doesn't matter at all, but it's a lot closer to that than being super consequential).

I am relieved and dismayed that I didn't even need to see the tweet load to know what was being linked, because I've thought it multiple times when I've heard his name this postseason.

Maybe Luzardo with the signals coming from the Marlins? I suspect this pairs with your first point in that they'd mostly operate that search for a playoff SP outside of budget limitations knowing they can spin off Stroman, but they do have to be mindful of timing since all 30 teams can't take on his deal even with only 1 year. Thankfully the Japanese imports typically sign in the first half of the offseason and I'm guessing if Glasnow goes somewhere it isn't going to be in February, so it doesn't seem impractical to play it this way(compared to e.g. trying to lock up Bellinger before the winter meetings).

Maybe Bellinger and Yamamoto will get well more! Early indications are less so. Bellinger was non-tendered 12 months ago after multiple years of poor performance and has a QO attached, while Yamamoto for his stuff and youth is still an NPB product with uncertainty about how his game will transfer(plus the posting fee is outside the LT and isn't a part of these AAV considerations). Soto will make 30+ in arbitration so he's a slightly different story, but Alonso(even extended) is unlikely to exceed that 25 mark. Glasnow's set at 25 contractually. As for Ohtani, the thinking is he's going to get 50 million, maybe a bit less with the uncertainty around his pitching. That's the genesis of this point, if you think paying some combination of the above guys is going to be 10 million+ more in AAV than paying Ohtani, then Ohtani becomes even more attractive. But that seems far from certain.