Transmogrified Tiger

PCA went 0 for 14 with 7 K, I'm not changing my enthusiasm for him as a prospect but he was unequivocally a failure at the plate in that limited time. Similarly, Mervis may have had some bad luck on batted balls, but his xwOBA was still only .318 and he struck out 32% of the time. He was bad regardless of the batted ball luck. Canario I would not categorize as falling on his face, but he played the exact amount he should have.

Saying that you expected X and then listing all the things that happened above expectation (without mention of things that happened below expectation) and labeling the season a failure for it doesn't seem like a very useful or rigorous exercise.

Only 6 RF were > .350, one of them being Seiya. If PCA hits enough to force the issue, you play Bellinger in RF(his arm strength is 86th percentile) and DH Seiya more, not worry about it when an OF has a knock or needs rest, etc. Bellinger being able to eat up 15-20 games at 1B as needed is a bonus. I can see the argument for trading PCA instead of Morel(who unless he spends all winter improving his hands at 3B is the loser in this scenario), but I don't think the presence of Bellinger necessitates a trade of PCA for value reasons. Only 27 qualified hitters had a > 125 wRC+ this year, only 44 if you loosen to 400+ PA. If you can add/keep one of them, you do it to stack good players and enjoy the deeper offense until some inevitable amount of misfortune(injury, PCA's failure) makes the positional inefficiency irrelevant.

I'm not signing Bellinger to be the 135 wRC+ guy he was this year, though I think he'll be a whole lot closer to that than his xwOBA. As for the defensive value bit, to me it comes down to the fact that his flexibility carries a lot of value too, being able to put out a better lineup day in and day out. I'm not saying those are equivalent, but considering Bellinger's age I'm not worried about the potential problem of him playing RF or 1B more often if PCA is good. The if being the operating thing here, because after his call up there should be little expectation that PCA is playing every day prior til Memorial Day or so, and even that carries risk. I'm not gonna pass on a potential stud 28 y/o FA you have a QO & familiarity advantage in signing because he might be a little expensive for his production *if* another prospect pans out.

One thing I've been thinking about the last couple weeks is that we have two years of data on Seiya in RF now and while it's not a particular problem, he's not been a strong defensive asset. Given that PCA has demonstrated he is not going to be ready to carry an every day offensive load from opening day(and while I hope not, possibly not ever) and no entrenched DH option on the roster, I think you can make a compelling argument to sign Bellinger without even considering his 1B ability. Though that 1B ability may still be relevant/useful depending on other moves.

He's a weird dude so I'm not gonna be floored if he does something against the grain, but the signs are he's not going to.

I had them at 84 wins, so in aggregate this is about what I expected, though it was a very frustrating way to get there. I'm encouraged that they simultaneously showed some proficiency in their acquisitions(and can keep existing players) while also not hemorrhaging all the value after the year and being on a treadmill to maintain the status quo. They're primed to supplement the roster from within, in FA, and in trade to make another leap next year. Where I have concerns is that while they'll have room to spend, they have committed enough money to the existing roster that they won't be able to exclusively spend their way to the top. Can they make the trades needed to get the team over the hump? Jed hasn't overseen a team with true competitive aspirations so it's somewhat understandable, but this team needs the type of moves that brought the previous era Fowler, Montero, and of course Arrieta/Strop. These are especially true because this team needs to be able to withstand the imperfections of breaking in prospects and not be expecting PCA to have a 110 wRC+ from the jump or for Horton to immediately start the 2nd game of a playoff series.

They have gone above the luxury tax before, they are very close to it now in a year where playoff competitiveness was not expected/certain, and they've spent on high dollar free agents throughout the Ricketts' ownership. The weird circumstances of 2020 has created this fan fiction in some people's minds where the Ricketts not being Yankee/Dodger/Cohen spenders means that they are misers constantly looking to hold down payroll when there are numerous counterexamples. I get where the sentiment comes from but framing like this (and other posts talking about payroll being decreased) is pessimism for pessimism's sake.

BBRef's schedule page, the Cubs are 21-24 now and the Marlins are 33-13

He's been a horrific defender all over the diamond this year, and while there's nothing wrong with having a pre-arb DH with a 120ish wRC+, if someone else loves his team control or thinks more highly of his glove, you have the potential to add someone who could be more impactful.

He's a sidearmer, he could probably donate his UCL to a teammate and still make 90 appearances

We can only hope that it doesn't feed his vendetta against Morel who (checks notes) has over 400 PA despite not getting called up til May, having cold spells where he looks like a little leaguer, and generally has played defense like a QWOP character this year

"Ross hates Morel and loves Mastrobuoni" is an incredible bit to try to pull off, I respect the audacity of it

My preseason prediction was 84 wins, so this is about what I expected in the macro. It's a very frustrating way to get to that type of total, but I'm not gonna gnash my teeth over it considering I didn't expect them to be a playoff team and the way the individual performances have added up doesn't make me bearish on their ability to continue to improve next year.

He was only a shade above average offensively at AAA with a 30% K rate in over 150 PA, it's not like he had proven beyond a shadow of a doubt he was ready for MLB. If it were June there would be zero chance he was getting called up, it was only to have his defense and speed(which has proven to be a negative) as an option in a playoff chase since someone had to be there with expanded rosters. More to that playoff chase point, it is not Ross' job to investigate if PCA can hit better with more playing time when they are pushing to make the postseason. He hasn't been the best option to play, so he hasn't played. They aren't going to give up on the playoffs until they're eliminated, so he probably won't play much the last series either.

Correct, despite getting shielded matchups(the idea that he's only gotten PH ops against leverage relievers is absurd, look at that list of names), he's hitless with a 40% K rate, and gotten thrown out twice on the bases despite spending very little time on them.

PCA has been unplayably bad in his MLB time, and Morel is 8th in PA this month(and just 2 PA from 6th). Why are we pretending that they're languishing if not for the dope that plays olds regardless of reality.

I'd like to see him throw some more strikes, the 5+ BB/9, 12-13% BB% makes me a little uneasy. There's guys who get away with close to that and are quite good, and I don't need him to have Alzolay's control if he's K'ing 35% of hitters, but that's the thing I'd watch out for. More broadly, yes he definitely has late inning potential.

I see we're back to pretending that Craig Counsell has the magic touch and not elite bullpen arms. Craig Counsell's 1 run winning percentage before Josh Hader's debut: .437 The Cubs 1 run winning percentage this year from Alzolay taking over as closer until his injury: .700

The Cardinals have lost 90 games for the first time since 1990

My pleasure. The offense returns 2 4-win position players and 2 3-win outfielders, along with a productive catching tandem. Their stalwart position players are well rounded and don't have lopsided offensive profiles, which allows the team to take more risks filling other holes. The rotation will probably feature one of this year's Cy Young contenders, and at least two others we expect to be good SP you'd be fine pitching in a playoff series, based on history and most recent performance(Stroman, Hendricks, Taillon). Wicks was a Top 100 prospect that pitched like a 3 win starter for 20% of the season and will likely be the 5th starter at best. The bullpen only loses Fulmer and Boxberger, and if healthy Alzolay is a great back end keystone. Further investment in the rotation means that decent SP options will be crowded into the pen where they are likely good performers(Smyly, Wesneski, Assad). Other potential pop up options(Palencia, Little, Brown) are younger/less experienced than those we've seen in recent years and more likely to make improvements. Having not traded away the back end of the pen this year, next year's Merryweather or Leiter would be pitching in the 6th/7th rather than the 7th/8th. They will likely graduate a Top 25 overall prospect in the field(PCA) and on the mound(Horton) at some point next year. They have one of the deepest systems in the game to package players in trade to fill holes without jeopardizing the flow of talent. If payroll does not increase at all and Stroman opts in, they'll have roughly 50 million in AAV to make improvements/fill holes. Signs are that payroll will increase and they'll go into the LT. They'll either bring back a 28 y/o 4-win CF/1B and plug a big hole or have a QO pick to empower them to be aggressive in FA

Is this based on what you're seeing day to day or something else? Because these are the team's offensive ranks in run value by (Statcast) pitch type: FA (includes 4 seamers): 19th Cutter: 4th Splitter: 9th Sinker: 9th If you filter to since the All-Star break, the main difference is they got even better against Fastballs, still 10th against Cutters and 3rd against Sinkers.

Trout has averaged 79 games the last 3 seasons, it's extremely difficult to armchair QB what a good choice is because it's entirely dependent on the medical side of things given the diverse and habitual nature of the injuries.

Reds lose

ump should've said the ball hit the net just to see if he could break Murphy