Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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Yep, every bad night for the offense is a failure of lineup construction, every 4+ run outing is poor bullpen management of some sort(starter left in too short/long, wrong relievers picked, etc). Every negative outcome is avoidable. That said I do hope Cuas moves down the pecking order with Smyly's emergence and Wesneski having a good September. I've never thought the degree of confidence in him was deserved because of the control issues. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 9-10-23
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I mentioned it at the time but I think it's a perfectly fair process to drop him. Alcantara wasn't a Top 25 stud, he's one of a bunch of players who have high potential but barriers to realizing it. He didn't just have a bad couple weeks, he had a .621 OPS at the start of June. There's 30 organizations with guys who are exceeding expectations or realizing potential, and for a player who is not at the upper levels and doesn't have a rich history of high performance it's good process to drop him. It's also good process to bump him back up if he tears it up and starts realizing his potential. If we're going to justifiably think that risers in the organization need recognition when they've had a step change(e.g. Horton, Shaw), it's only fair that we acknowledge when someone fails to play up to their ranking for a big chunk of the year and adjust accordingly. -
how can you not be romantic about baseball
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it took 3 minutes to go from Sutcliffe praising Amaya pointlessly to calling him Yan Gomes
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did Sutcliffe just praise Amaya blocking that pitch with 1 strike and no one on base
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if it weren't for Bellinger we would all think that Gomes was a witch for as often as he has come through with RISP
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It's gonna be a bunt and honestly it's not a bad idea and I will howl laughing at the reactions
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At least 65, imo
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that should not be a HBP
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Regardless of execution, trying to steal third in Coors against the Rockies pen with the top of the order up seems like a dubious decision
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lol Tauchman: "I'm gonna show em that I can still do the job" [rips a single] Ross: "great job, we're pulling you for the kid"
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kinda weird that no one does a hook slide anymore, must be too high risk without a lot of practice that isn't worth it?
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If my calculations are correct that's the 73rd warning track flyout since the start of the Dbacks series
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Depending on the lineup position, I'd be tempted to try to get 4-6 outs from Wesneski in the middle innings. He did throw yesterday but only 9 pitches, you know you're gonna need more length this series because Coors, and with Wicks starting the lineup probably won't be heavy on LHH(which means Wesneski over Smyly). This also leaves open the possibility of not having to throw Fulmer immediately into the late innings fire with no game action in 2 weeks if you can avoid it.
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A hair under 30%. Hopefully his past week marks him turning a corner(.365/.385/.720), but it was still 26% then and that's just one week against the Royals affiliate so the risk remains. I don't watch him as many as some but my big concerns are that he has some non-competitive swings on breaking stuff down(think Morel), and his swing path causes him to swing through some fastballs up in the zone(think pre-Cubs Bellinger). He's also doing real damage when he is making contact and he's made improvements with his baserunning efficiency(10/12 SB at Iowa after 8 CS at AA), but the outputs may be pretty high variance to start with.
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I am very excited to see PCA play, especially with Tauchman's Ortega impression seemingly entering the 'found out' stage. I am also worried about his relative lack of offensive success in AAA. In particular I've tried to pay attention when I see highlights of his ABs and it's mildly worrisome how rarely he seems to get hits up in the zone. Hopefully that's just bad luck in the clips that I've happened to see since I don't watch every AB, but I'm curious how quickly 'fastballs at the top of the zone' becomes the book on him and how quickly he adjusts or proves it wrong to begin with.
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I went to the game, boy does USSF really not care about attendance with those prices. From my amateur eye it looked like Uzbekistan was playing a very compact but not super deep defensive block. Things got static because Ream, Richards, and LDLT/Tessman had little interest in trying to thread line breaking passes, and the front three didn't have much interest in trying to stretch the back line for balls over the top, so it was a lot of wide triangles in tight spaces. Given Berhalter's previous approach to friendlies(he does not care one bit about results) I wouldn't be surprised if that was intentional given the opponent.
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I think there are more likely explanations than they want to get him one additional first pitch fastball because they think he's a baseball playing golden retriever.
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Three of them have time at Iowa this year and all of them outproduced Canario's Iowa line. The other 2 have been above average MLB hitters every year they've been at that level. The three RHH Canario is in greatest competition with are 2 high draft picks(4th and 52nd overall) and an international signing who graduated with a higher FV(per FG) than Canario has. This doesn't mean that there's an enormous chasm between Canario and these players, but it does mean the question of why he doesn't play has a simple answer.
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- alexander canario
- seiya suzuki
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Canario's career minor league performance and prospect pedigree does not indicate someone ready to be an above average major league hitter, ZiPS and Steamer both see him as a sub-90 wRC+ for an objective estimate. Should he play instead of Morel? No, Morel has proven far more at the big league level and Canario's profile is not materially different. Should he play instead of Madrigal/Tauchman when the other is in the field? Probably not as both are putting up an offensive baseline higher than we'd expect from Canario and they have a less exploitable approach at the plate. Should he play instead of Wisdom? Probably not given what Wisdom has done at the MLB level and continues to do(156 wRC+ in limited time since the all-star break). Should he play instead of Mastrobuoni? Well that's rarely going to be a choice given their handedness, but given Mastrobuoni far outproducing Canario's line at AAA and offering greater speed/contact, reasonable people can probably disagree about that one too. Quoting the team's season line at DH that's about 25% Mancini/Hosmer doesn't make a difference when Canario is not the best option for any singular roster choice that would get him in the lineup, that's why he isn't playing.
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That lineup tells me they really like Morel v. Pfaadt and want to be able to yank him for Tauchman against RHRP. Gomes over Candelario is a little silly but Candelario hasn't been hot and it balances handedness for the bullpen I guess.
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All available evidence? This 'well he can't be worse than what we have so it's worth a try' attitude is baffling to me. The games matter a ton, Canario is not an elite prospect and has significant known flaws likely to be exploited in the short term, and there are several alternatives so it's not like there's a singular option he has to beat out.
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that's so, so good Nico
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Right now Fangraphs has the NL playoff line at 84 wins, the Diamondbacks the last WC team and Marlins first out at 83. The Cubs need to go 8-12 to reach 84 wins.
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Before last inning Mastrobuoni was 10/10 in Chicago and 9/9 in Iowa at SB, and in less than 300 PA so not all that many opportunities to be in SB position.
