Transmogrified Tiger

I would push back on the idea of Hoskins as a 'bounce back' or 'lightning in a bottle' type of acquisition. Yes, he didn't play this year, but it was due to an injury(torn ACL) that was long enough ago(March) and in a location that shouldn't impact him in a material way going forward. Prior to that injury he was just a really good hitter, a career 126 wRC+ that he hasn't had significant ups and downs in reaching. I don't think he should be the primary bat added, but he's also far more of a sure thing than say, Bellinger was last year in a similar 'signing a 1 year deal as a platform to get a big FA deal' contractual situation.

Looks like Keuchel did it in 2015.

seems good

Yes, correct. Hoyer (or any GM) being mindful of long term and/or post-prime commitments because like any front office they have limits to their resources is not the same as the caricature you've created of them being terrified of long term deals and preferring to sign terrible players to 1 year deals to avoid multi-year commitments.

I assume Reinsdorf isn't going to permit a payroll as high as the last couple years for a team with minimal contending hopes, so flushing marginal value guys on higher salaries keeps them from needing to make deeper cuts that hurt more simply for payroll reasons.

no, that remains a thing that is made up in your head

I think they're different pitchers who will get to value in different ways, but I think putting Wicks and Brown in the same tier is fair. BBTV has Brown with significantly more value, which I don't really get. Assad, no, I don't think he's gonna be a lifelong dramatic FIP-beater. I also agree that I don't think Wicks is going for Alonso, though I wouldn't be shocked to see it for Brown.

Some good notes from Mooney/Sharma this morning: https://theathletic.com/5030992/2023/11/05/cubs-offseason-rumors-gm-meetings/ Cliff notes: Bellinger may have a preference for a big market Trading for an established reliever to avoid a bigger/longer guaranteed commitment could happen, possibly a smaller market option in arb Hoyer not likely to shy away from Soto or Alonso just because they have 1 year left, it means their cost is lower and the team's books retain flexibility Teams are doing their homework on Morel

...at the expense of Morel! Look I don't want to deal in absolutes, maybe they'll get an elite player who occupies DH without trading Morel and they'll force him at 3B one way or another. There's a lot more fun paths to the offseason if Morel is occupying 3B and isn't a defensive liability. But I also don't think we need to try to retrofit the org's behavior as if that's what their intent is likely to be. Across 2 seasons, there have been nothing but journeymen and other positional converts at 3B, the door has been wide open for Morel(who has played lots of minor league 3B at a very poor level) to get run there in both low stakes and competitive environments. Instead they had him play actual new positions(CF) and primarily DH. The most likely outcome is that the guy who played a lot of MiLB 3B very poorly and then wasn't given that chance at the MLB level is that the org doesn't think he can do it. There's a distinction between that behavior and trying to give a decent/good defensive 2B that chance in Madrigal(which again, came at Morel's expense).

Writing actual blog posts remains annoyingly difficult compared to rambling message board replies, but here it is:

The 2015 Cubs needed a frontline starter. They had an emergent Jake Arrieta(a former 5th rounder finally come good), some depth via FA in Jason Hammel, and the first full season of Kyle Hendricks(a command over stuff prospect) to look forward to. They needed another rotation anchor, and they got it in Jon Lester, a 31 year old FA known for his durability, playoff pedigree, and high floor with potential ace ceiling. The parallels to the 2024 Cubs can be overfitted but are still interesting. They have an emergent Justin Steele(a former 5th rounder finally come good) headlining the rotation, some depth via FA in Taillon, and the first full season of Jordan Wicks(a command over stuff prospect) to look forward to, to say nothing of the potential return of Hendricks himself. They need another rotation anchor, and I think there’s an under discussed Lester successor in Aaron Nola, a 31 year old FA with durability, playoff pedigree, and high floor with ace ceiling. Nola is a name that doesn’t need introduction, he’s a Top 10 pick who has had significant success with the Phillies, and will receive a qualifying offer and a 9 figure contract. And yet, during this period in the offseason when all options are on the table and fans debate all options both realistic and not, I’ve seen very little enthusiasm for the possibility of adding Nola. I think that’s a potential blind spot given what he offers. The first place to start with Nola is his durability. He’s made all his starts for 6 years running, averaging more than 6 innings per start. We saw first hand this year the negative feedback loop created when starters get hurt or have consistently short outings. Good bullpen arms get strained or used in the rotation, bad bullpen arms get used more, and the whole staff suffers. Nola, more than any arm available in 2024, provides the availability to minimize that loop. However, availability without productivity doesn’t mean very much, and thankfully Nola has a lot to offer in those innings. He’s averaged more than 4 fWAR per season for his career, hasn’t pitched at worse than a 3.4 fWAR pace since the Cubs won it all in 2016, and has multiple 5+ win seasons to his name. Above the top line value added, Nola throws strikes, exceeding 3 BB/9 just once. Moreover, Nola demonstrates plus command by issuing so few free passes despite getting an elite amount of chase. Nola is in the Top 10 qualified SP in CSW% every year. It’s that ability to induce chase(96th percentile in 2023) that I think is at the heart of the disconnect in Nola’s actual value compared to what Cubs fans perceive their team needs. After several seasons near the bottom of the league in SP velocity, there’s a natural desire for a frontline starter with an elite fastball. Nola’s fastball doesn’t light up the gun, running similar average velo to the now-departed Stroman. But velocity or ‘stuff’ more broadly is a proxy for a different quality, the ability to get outs yourself and stand up to the best players and offenses with consistency. When you look at that underlying quality, Nola stands up well. He consistently posts K% appropriate for a frontline starter, especially when considering he takes the ball every 5th day and gets more outs per game than many strikeout specialists. Nola hasn’t finished outside the Top 20 in K% since the Obama administration. Only 5 Cubs SP seasons have exceeded his career mark(27.2%) since the turn of the century and only one(Darvish, 2019) in the last decade. Nola isn’t without his flaws and risks. He’s prone to home runs on occasion, will cost a draft pick in compensation, and will command a salary befitting the winner of a FA bidding war for a player of his quality. Most importantly, he’ll be 31 early in the 2024 season, and while a 6 year deal worked out for Lester it’s a risky proposition to invest big into those ages. But the Cubs are at the point in their competitive cycle where it’s prudent to bank high end production, and the departure of Stroman means that investment would have limited impact on the ability to make other upgrades. Nola isn’t the only SP option worth getting, but he’d make for an excellent addition, representing one stop shopping for high end quality and rotation stability.

Morel has spent most of his professional career playing at 3B and on the left side of the infield, he has played more 3B than any other position. I think it's perfectly reasonable to believe he could be a playable 3B, but I also think we need to use Occam's razor when it comes to *what the Cubs think* of his 3B ability. They had plenty of opportunity to give him chances at 3B(across 2 seasons!) and declined to do so. The idea that all of a sudden out of the offseason he's going to be preferred over the same cast of characters requires a lot of mental gymnastics.

That one was very weird, but the one that really bugged me was earlier in the drive. Ball overthrown by 10 yards, receiver gave up on the route and initiated the limited contact, and called so far after the play the broadcast didn't realize it.

I watch too little football to be this tired of trying to figure out what counts as pass interference

With today's news I'm definitely gonna have to write up the 'Aaron Nola is Jon Lester redux' take I've had kicking around in the back of my mind for a few weeks

Trying to understand the logic Stroman uses for any decisions he makes is a path to madness, but at a minimum he's probably worthy of a similar AAV and he sees a potential opportunity to lock in another year or 2 that may not have happened if he waited until he was nearly 34 to sign.

Bellinger can make plenty of sense even if you ignore 1B. PCA may be the bad version of JBJ instead of the good one and not be worth a starting spot. A corner OF can get a long term injury, have a dip in performance, or become less viable with the glove and be better as a 1B/DH themselves. Bellinger will be signed longer term than the existing corner OF too and could play corner OF as Plan A for part of the contract if desired. Players at any position are unlikely to play 162 games and having that flexibility makes your lineup more consistently good. The fact that there may be a more immediate need at 1B is a bonus and not something to fear. Also, there's been plenty of great teams and offenses with worse hitters than Bellinger at 1B, having that as a potential outcome isn't perfectly efficient, but reality never is. Raising the floor has value too.

With the way it exists right now, the 'Budget' number that best matches the 2024 Luxury Tax threshold(which makes sense to me as a single line since you'll either want to stay under it or be aware of how much over it you are) is around 210m I think?

Interesting! Some immediate thoughts from clicking around for a minute: Since the Luxury Tax payroll number is the most relevant to the Cubs situation, I don't think there's a need to break out Gomes salary v. buyout. Treating him like you did Hendricks(who also has a buyout) would be preferable Similarly, having a way to account for non-26 man pre-arb salaries and non-payroll LT expenses(even as a combined line item) would help make the actual and budget number more relevant to how folks will use this in a comparative sense. Fangraphs' payroll pages (which assume additional pre-arb salaries adding up to 33 total roster spots to account for roster churn/IL time) handle this pretty well. Barnhart and Bote have dead money for 2024, 3.25 and 3 million respectively from a LT perspective This may be part of the unfinished bits but having the ability to add dead money values would be useful to visualize money paid in/out as part of trades(you could technically do this with the acquisition's salary but IMO the dead money value is clearer) There's a couple super nitpicky things about the default roster(looks like you're using MLBTR arb values but Wisdom's is 2.6, Nico's LT number is 11.67, Heuer is technically arb eligible and will probably be a hair over the minimum if kept) but nothing that an individual couldn't "fix" themselves if they cared about it

There's also some very limited but promising Stuff+ data on Imanaga. For me the question with him is two fold. One is what is the velo in reality? I'm seeing 91-94 and sits 94. Even with the promising fastball characteristics I don't think a guy with Stroman velo is worth going out of the way for unless there's other changes different from what we expect(e.g. both Stroman and Hendricks are gone). The other is that he was pretty home run prone for a good Japanese league starter. Maybe given the repertoire and strike throwing abilities you can sequence your way to a better outcome on that front? But still, it's a concern.

Wonder if there's any meaning in who wasn't chosen. In particular I'm thinking of Roberts, since he hasn't pitched in 18 months and would probably have cleared waivers fine.

I guess for me the question is less on if he can make that progress at Iowa v. MLB(I'm open to the argument that it could be either), it's that on a team with competitive aspirations I think until those adjustments happen PCA is going to be unplayable at the MLB level. The 7 K in 19 MLB PA is one indication on that front, but moreso it's the 30% K rate with barely above league average production at Iowa that points me to that development needing to start at AAA. That said, I totally understand Tauchman skepticism, though it'll be interesting to see how the offseason progresses if other alternatives present themselves. Bringing back Bellinger, adding Soto and being willing to play Happ there in the short term, adding a lower tier FA or trade target, telling Morel he's a full-time OF and playing him there, etc. Very possible that even though I assume the front office is fine with Tauchman being a stop gap, there's probably permutations where it's not exclusively PCA v. Tauchman in April.

Don't want to distract from the Little conversation(just a few more strikes and he could be elite, he can afford to live in the zone more since his baseline is so unhittable), but I'm very much against PCA making the opening day roster. I see his September call up not as a trial run to prepare him to be ready from Day 1(though that may have been on the table), but one borne out of competitive necessity and ended up being a call up before he was ready. He still has hurdles to climb at AAA to not get humiliated at the MLB level like he did this year, and even if Bellinger or another CF isn't acquired they'll clearly be fine starting with Tauchman there to let PCA get the reps that he needs.

I would gently suggest you just say the opinions you think and respond to the specific things people say, and spend less time and words worrying about the 'narrative' or arguing against a nebulous prevailing opinion you think you're seeing. When you focus on the latter everything veers into being a screed that is difficult to parse and understand, much less interact with.

No one thinks Soto and Ohtani will command the same money in a long term deal. Any convergence towards towards that point is a function of Soto being significantly younger and not a conspiracy to not recognize how good Ohtani is.