Jason Ross

I think Edward Cabrera is the guy they want most.

From what it sounds like, the Cubs goal is to acquire 1 controllable pitcher, with their preference being a SP. They will pivot to a controllable RP if they cannot acquire that. They will then acquire a more mid-tier rental of the other pitching type. So if they grab a controllable SP, they'd go rental RP. As of right now, the reliever market is churning a bit, but as long as the Cubs are trying for a controlled SP first, they can't really pivot yet to a reliever. If they did, it would likely change how they had to attack SP, which would be backwards for their wants. 3b is a bit different, but the hitter market the Cubs are likely in (Suarez, Castro) isn't really on the move right now. It's likely that the Cubs will wait this out until they either have to move themselves or a team they're working with accepts they have to budge some. For teams trying to trade controllable SPs, the reality is that the Cubs are one of the very few games in town who both have need and means, and the Cubs have to know this. While teams with controllable arms don't have to move them, if they wish to cash in now, there aren't many options, either. It's a game of chicken.

Per Matt, it sounds like they'd pivot to rental types if they have to. There should be enough of them that even if they feel they need to pivot later if a Cabrera or a Bednar type isn't going to materialize.

Yeah, from what Matt said during out live stream, it sounds like the Cubs are pushing to get a controllable arm, be it SP (their preference) or a RP (if they can't get a controllable SP). Preference is Cabrera for SP. So I think they'll pursuit that until they can't.

Patient. The Cubs are fishing in different waters

It wouldn't be my go-to move, but to play devils' advocate I'll say this: Trading for Suarez doesn't have to mean Shaw sits indefinitely. He could play against every LHP, with Suarez at 1b (he just made a start there for Arizona) and play multiple times a week against RHP, giving Suarez, Swanson and Hoener time off (likely not at SS but with Nico sliding over?). And while the difference between the two might not be monumental, it's important to note that while fractional wins mean little when you're talking <90wins, once you start talking getting over the 90 win hump, they become more valuable. There would be reason to find that valuable for a Cubs team sitting in that range. Whatever is traded for Suarez will need to eclipse the value of the QO that he would turn down, and it seems inevitable that his price tag will be more than most rentals recently.

The Cubs have Christian Franklin who is a really nice little fourth-OF prospect. He's sporting a wRC+ over 130 since June 18th in Iowa (he had a really rough run for about a month and change) and is capable at all three positions. They could trade both OF'ers and still have a ready made backup. Don't forget long term, the Cubs just drafted Ethan Conrad and Kane Kepley from college. The former has batted ball data at WF before injury that was pretty close to Cam Smith's last year and Kepley is a 70 grade defender and 60+ grade runner with strong contact skills. Both could conceivably be options in 2027. As well as 6th round overslot ($2m to be exact and the 2nd highest bonus in the draft) prep-OF Josiah Hartshorn. The Cubs have gone ahead and nabbed a few more interesting OF'ers. I think any trade in which the Cubs include Caissie to begin with will bring in a controlled player for next year, so while I don't want to trade them all away, I think the Cubs will be fine regardless of what occurs in the next 24 hours.

There are only a few teams left in a Suarez market. The Cubs are not insane enough to trade both Caissie and Alcantara for him. Jed loves his values and he doesn't budge. I do think it'd be Alcantara and something. Jordan Wicks would make sense. But I would be shocked to see Caissie go for a rental let alone with Kevin in a rental.

Yeah, bigger in name value than trade value, IMO.

I'm getting "Bieber and Cade Smith" vibes. I think the two sides really match up in a sense of the Guardians never care about OF'ers who strikeout but have power, and the Cubs have always seemed to fancy Bieber. I know Clase and yadda yadda, but I have a feeling the Guards would consider moving him. They create relievers pretty often, and think they'd probably be more receptive than we think. My prediction right now would be that will be what they do. No information, just vibes.

Ian Happ seems fine.

This would be a cathartic win. Crush the Brewers, head into the TDL and we can all start fresh and invigorated on Friday with a few new additions.

Wicks went 4.1, struck out 6 and had 9 whiffs. Looked good.

Yep. Off the plate. Not an easy pitch to hit for a HR.

Yeah, that cluster of splitters (teal/green) and fastballs (red) is not where you want to throw it.

Yeah, I still hate that for the Reds. He doesn't have great barrel control and his GB% is nearing 50%. Even if he pulls more, I just don't think it's going to save him. It'll probably just have him go from "really bad hitter" to "bad hitter".

Mo Baller.

Yeah. And they already have Marte at 3b. I don't get that...at all.

Especially for a team who's offense ain't exactly...good. Also...Noevli Marte is one of their good offensive players. And he's a 3b? What?

I don't like the poker analogy here, because chips in poker don't go bad. In many ways, the Cubs have a log jam in Iowa that is a misuse of assets if they hug 'em all. There is no obvious pathway to keep Alcantara and Caissie, for example or really use them by 2027. They can't really keep them all and it be a good usage of their chips. The same goes for Long and Ballesteros in many ways. Christian Franklin and a few of their lower-end arms like Assad, Wicks, Birdsel and Sanders all occupy similar positions in the organization. Players run out of options and their value in a trade depreciate over time, fairly or unfairly. Owen Caissie repeating Triple-A next year will not help anything; he either hits well and no one cares "it's his third time!" or he doesn't and everyone freaks out. The Cubs assets are depreciating values in many ways, and need to be treated as such. If you don't use them, they will lose perceived value. I wouldn't advocate the Cubs to trade Owen Caissie, Jaxon Wiggins and Assad and Long for, say, all rentals, but I don't think that's what anyone has said here. They should be cashing in some of these assets for controllable players where they can. A SP like Edward Cabrera will be here for this year and a few more. The Cubs are a better team in 2025 for sure, and likely beyond, for doing that.

The bullpen is struggling, but much like when the bullpen was out producing itself, this won't keep either. We have a bad habit of believing all out-of-the-norm things suggest future production (positive and negative) but things regress to the mean. With trades and positive variance, the pen will be fine. Thielbar, Palencia, Keller, and Braiser are a pretty strong foundation. With enough guys like Pomeranz, Hollowell, Hodge, Pressley floating around, and maybe adding Horton and Brown you can probably guess two of them will stabilize it again. Add one good reliever from outside of the organization and it'll be alright. The lineup will be fine too. I really don't care about lineup construction. People freak out about it, but I think it's a red herring in almost every way. Busch isn't struggling because he's hitting leadoff, he's just going through a slump, for example. Almost all available data we have suggests lineup construction is nearly meaningless, both from a hitter's production POV and from a run scoring environment POV, so I'm not super worried how Counsell orders them as long as the better hitters hit near the front of it and he isn't playing Tucker at SS. Things will work themselves out when hitters revert back into the normal forms.

Jed is usually good for one "huh? That guy?" trade every deadline. And I don't mean it in a bad way. I didn't expect an Isaac Parades trade last deadline, and certainly not the way it happened. He may go pretty conventional this year, but I kind of expect we'll see at least one Jed-special like that.

That would be my guess. Mo is here for a day, or maybe a few more (the Cubs could conceivably DFA Berti as well at this point to keep Mo up through a few more days) until Happ's healthy again. But by Thursday at 4pm est, tomorrow, I think there could be up to three new bench players. One of which isn't really "new" in Miguel Amaya, but think there could two new additions - one via trade and could be one rookie like Franklin or Alcantara as the new CF option.

I think Brujan was always going to go in the next two days, so while I think it's likely that the Cubs bench will look pretty different come 4pm tomorrow, but I'd guess there isn't a specific trade right now that's about to hit.