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Jason Ross
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Everything posted by Jason Ross
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Fun fact: since the ASB, Matt Shaw has only one whiff.
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Ian Happ HR, Shaw HR... All we need is a Dansby hit with RISP to break the game open to let twitter go crazy. Cubs Bingo.
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I think it's a full-team effort. I don't want to give credit to one person, but when you have a pretty consistent history of fixing and tinkering, it's likely collective more-so than any anecdote. Like I don't doubt a Counsell said something like that, but it was also the team behind the scenes who found a way to help him implement that aspect properly. The Cubs essentially don't mess with swings until their have struggles. Which also leads me to believe in a collective effort.
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Was not. Some good luck for Ian for once!
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I'm a big dummy. I didn't even have a drink tonight. I have nothing to blame it on.
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Same crew who tinkered and toiled with PCA and Miguel Amaya. Cubs have some good guys in the biomechanical and swing department.
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Out in 19 ballparks and 99,5mph off the bat. It wasn't a cheap one.
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0% chance he hits that for a home run before the ASB.
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Twitter tells me Ian Hap sucks, though.
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The Royals just picked up Grichuck. While neither Grichuck or Frazier are expensive buys, they aren't really acting like a team who you'd guess was wanting to move Lugo.
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I expect they are trying to keep his numbers as good as they are to trade him.
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Cabrera over Alcantara. He's is pitching better as is and has more control. It is also why he will cost more.
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The creator of xwOBA, Jeff Simmonds, claims that LA stabilizes (in other words, eliminates randomness within the sample) after 70 events. Ian Happ, since June 1st, has 124 events. He is beyond the burden of proof of xwOBA by nearly an additional 50% and his xwOBA over that span is essentially, right in line with what he has done the last three seasons. Speaking logically, it wouldn't really make sense for it to be the case you are suggesting and Ian Happ still have better than career barrel%, because barrel% takes ideal LA into account as well. Between "it's just normal bad variance" and "maybe he has such a weird launch angle on this ground balls and fly balls that somehow his BABIP is really bad" the former is the far more likely and normal reason. Literally every year, across baseball, there are multiple hitters have two months of bad luck, just like hitters can have two months of good luck. The more I dig into the data, the more it's almost assuredly that Ian Happ has been the recipient of poor variance for a while. If he continues to hit the ball the way he has, he will likely play in line with normal Ian Hap the remainder of the year.
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To be fair to Cabrera he hasn't walked more than three in any of his starts in 2025.
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No. Not really. A slightly higher LA is a normal deviance. And his LA last year was 15.1, and he was great. What it does, however, is show that he isn't hitting an abnormal amount of ground balls, artificially inflating his hard hit and EV, or showing that his swing is ungodly different.
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Ian Happ since June 1st: EV: 89.5 (career 89.8) Barrel%: 11.8% (career 10.3) LA: 15.6 (career 13) Hard hit%: 43.5% (career 41.2%) Babip: .189 (career .307) One of these things is not like the other...
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-25-25
Jason Ross replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Sounds like nothing. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-25-25
Jason Ross replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Wiggins not starting is interesting. Not alarming, but interesting. Could just be a reshuffle. But interesting. -
You know, week, days, months...it all flows together. At this point I guarantee a SP is added by 2027.
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Shota was our best SP in 2024. I think today it's clear that Boyd is our best arm in 2025. Jed will do something in a few days. It's coming.
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Struggling for location bad.
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We have to get beyond the idea that Shaw is the only actor here. Houser is an actor. Splits are cool! But they ignore the other party. I am Captain Shaw. I have written what feels like 20 articles on him in four months. But Counsell isnt a moron. The splits for Houser matter as much as the splits from Shaw and Brujan. The Cubs have decided that they want as many LHH in thr lineup as possible. So much so they also placed McGuire in after an off night.
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Counsell said today is purely based on Houser's splits. I think it's more splits related and Shaw just isn't high enough on the pecking order to out-hit the splits right now. McGuire also over Kelly, too.
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There hasn't been a top-100 prospect traded for a rental bat in the last 4 deadlines. That said, I am not convinced the Cubs are as heated to grab Suarez as many think they should be. They covet flexibility and versatility. I think its much more likely they target a Castro type.
