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Jason Ross

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Everything posted by Jason Ross

  1. Jason Ross
    It's a 3/$150m offer. No idea about opts and deferred money.
  2. Jason Ross
    Not related to the Cubs directly, but worth it to: 1. Watch the other teams scramble if this happens 2. What the return is
  3. Jason Ross
    Rogers has already said that the Cubs would go over the LT for Hoerner. And Levine says they'd need to be overwhelmed. I am struggling to see what the trade could be that would be overwhelming, but I'd assume the Cubs aren't doing this just for money savings if they do.
  4. Jason Ross
    This reads more like the Yankees drumming up backups to Bellinger for leverage in that negotiation than anything like the Cubs having any interest in a trade.
  5. Jason Ross
    If we are at the level of "question Fangraphs integrity" then we are just grasping at straws; not that we already weren't, but that's a pretty clear "wave the white flag" moment. You obviously also don't understand stabilization and sample size. Yes, both of those samples are larger than all accepted stabilization rates. You read up on those here, if you care about. Stabilization and MLB statistics. Only one of us has brought data. But I'm sure youre a bastian of the scientific community. Enjoy not watching Cubs game until 2031.
  6. Jason Ross
    I willingly teach 125 middle school students daily. For eight hours a day I talk to unwilling participants who are ranting and raving like a lunatic. This one hasn't randomly screamed some brainrot TikTok trend yet, and I'll assume he's wearing deodorant (at least, I can't smell him through the computer) making it among the easiest interactions I've had all day. Sometimes it's just fun to throw as many data points at someone and watch them twist themselves into a pretzel.
  7. Jason Ross
    Bud, we have FanGraphs which is publicly available. You can go look at his split stats. You can view them here. In 2017, he had a 127 wRC+ on the road and a 117 wRC+ at home. Fun fact; he was 40 points of wRC+ better on the road in 2019 than he was at home - that was the best year of his career. It wasn't even close. If wRC+ is too technical, than let's go with this: he hit 10 home runs on the road in 2017 and only nine at home. He had a higher batting average on the road. He had better slugging, too. In 2019, he hit 25 home runs on the road and 16 at home. His batting average was almost .40 points higher on the road. He struck out less. None of this makes sense. None of it. At this point you're kind of just devolving into the crazy guy on the street corner ranting about how there's bacteria in the water that the government put there.
  8. Jason Ross
    Beyond the silliness of "go watch conspiracy theory YouTube videos" what does any of that have to do with my original point; his value *since 2022*? Are you just not reading? What is going on here?
  9. Jason Ross
    The official MLB report found that the video software was used until mid-year 2018. They found no evidence of continued cheating. This is publicly available, so yes, well known. I'm uninterested in conspiracy theory beyond it. You've also made it very clear that Kyle Tucker who didn't play with the 2017 Astros, but did with the 2018 Astros and beyond doesn't count. So either the timeline to be upset is the MLB timeline, or you're a hypocrite for not throwing the same fit about Kyle Tucker. Which would you like it to be? Were you this upset that the Cubs acquired Ryan Pressly last year? He's been with the Astros since 2018. And before we say "well he's a pitcher", it was a pitcher, Mike Fiers who was the original whistleblower. So let's pick a lane. Again, if you want to dislike Bregman? Fine. But the sanctimonious pearl clutching of "my poor kids" and "they stole from players" doesn't read as genuine; it's so over the top that it reads like they were stealing the food out of impoverished children, not banging on a trash can to signal fastball or not. And you cannot, for the life of you, remain consistent in your critiques. You're not even really addressing the data. Why would Bregman hit better on the road? Why would his best season come in 2019 when the MLB itself claims the team had stopped using the illegal videos?
  10. Jason Ross
    The cheating scandal was in 2017. How do you suppose that is reflected in the data from 2022 to now?
  11. Jason Ross
    His two best years were in 2018 and 2019, when the cheating scandal was over. It's well known they stopped mid-way through 2018. He had virtually identical wRC+ from the first half to the second half (158 and 1`56). And none of that accounts for his 2019; easily his best season. He was also better on the road in 2017 than at home. You're not consistent in your messaging, and you seem to have just decided you hate Bregman without actually looking into what the cheating affected for him. You want to dislike him? Be my guest, but be factually correct about it.
  12. Jason Ross
    I think he's been with some bad pitching orgs (Arizona, notably and the Orioles aren't stars here either), but also think if I was handicapping "who's the next Brad Keller" that Martin is next to Snider for that. He saw a big 2mph velo bump last year, and his curveball is nasty, with a 127 Stuff+ rating. It feels like if you can dial him in a bit, there's an MLB reliever in there. The ERA sucked last year, but the K% was way up, too and the xFIP was under 4.00. I wouldn't bet on him being Keller-good, but he's got a lot of signs of "the Cubs could get the most of him" too.
  13. Jason Ross
    Based on how the Cubs have approached the offseason, it would seem a bit like the Cubs may have. You figure they pivoted from King pretty quickly, wanted to keep the AAV on Imai as low as possible, refused to do an opt-out deal there (higher AAV), signed guys like Tyler Austin, Jacob Webb and everyone on super cheap deals from essentially the WM's on. And Matt spoke about the Cubs looking to pair Imai with Bregman.
  14. Jason Ross
    It's clear these kinds of things matter to the Cubs. Matt alluded to Swanson in the same fashion in his article about Bichette and the Cubs and how the Cubs felt Swanson was a special case because of both his on the field play but his clubhouse presence. And I kind of get it; if you're hitching your wagon to someone for 5-7 years, you probably want to ensure that the player is going to be a positive in the clubhouse for those 5-7 years.
  15. Jason Ross
    I think Tucker had the more "upside" as a player (He could probably still be a 6+ win player in the right situation where as Bregman probably isn't) , but Bregman represents a bit of a change in how the Cubs have operated so, I'll say Bregman
  16. Jason Ross
    Just to add; the Cubs do have two open 40-man spots, but I don't expect them to be filled. By leaving them open the Cubs will have flexibility in keeping whatever MiLB-deal/camp invite arms they want without sacrificing something else. While I wouldn't expect the Cubs will create a Brad Keller every year, the team will want the flexibility if Colin Snider or one of the myriad of those types break out in camp. Ultimately, I think the off-season is basically done. There will probably be some consistent rumors of a Hoerner or Shaw trade that persist but I doubt those happen; the landing strip of what would need to come back feels so thin that I cannot envision a trade that works well.
  17. Jason Ross
    Bregman represents a lot: 1. The Cubs picked a player and outbid another for him 2. The Cubs used deferred money, something they havent been as willing to do lately. 3. He's a very good player; 19th most fWAR of any position player since 2022.
  18. Jason Ross
    Bregman was better in 2025 than he was in 2024 and his wRC+ was the same as it was in 2023. How is that slowing down? Also, it's 5/$30m with the deferrals. If there is a shutdown in 2027, he won't get paid. It's pretty unnecessary to worry about that aspect.
  19. Jason Ross
    Beede was one of Tom's guys. Yes.
  20. Jason Ross
    Listen, you have a right to not watch the Cubs if this matters so much to you. I think in the grand scheme of baseball, if you're drawing a line here, then you probably shouldn't have been watching the sport for a while. What Bregman did or was apart of is pretty tame compared to what some of these people are behind the scenes.
  21. Jason Ross
  22. Jason Ross
    The loser they just signed has been the 19th most valuable position player in baseball since 2022. I'd like it if the Cubs signed more losers like that.
  23. Jason Ross
    I do believe Ballesteros would qualify as he is still technically a rookie.
  24. Jason Ross
    No. His CBT number will be based on his real-world dollars. To figure out his deferrals it's based on how much money and what year it's being paid. Bregman's AAV isn't known yet, but based on initial reports his deferrals are not super distant, and looks to be paid out shortly after his contract ends. Estimates have brought his CBT number to around $30-$31m.
  25. Jason Ross
    Yep. And I don't think you sign Alex Bregman and then immediately look to ship Hoerner off for future players. So my guess is that the Cubs keep Hoerner for 2026 and then Shaw is the heir apparent. The Cubs can do a lot of damage in the 2027 draft as they will probably be able to get QOs on a lot of their FAs which makes it less likely, IMO, for the Cubs to try to restock the MiLB side of things with a Nico trade.
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