Jason Ross

It probably doesn't change much math. Bubic wasn't going anywhere once the Royals decided to keep Lugo. The Royals had already pulled Lugo and Bubic off the market for all intents and purposes. Clase is a reliever and while it may force a team or two to shift their decision to go into the RP or the SP market, it's different enough that his availability probably doesn't change how the Twins feel about Joe Ryan, Washington about Gore or even Arizona really handles like a Kelly or Gallen. It might move the needle a little, but I doubt much. Clase was going to be very expensive for a reliever and I would be surprised if teams who were going to pay handsomely for Clase are suddenly going to jump the price on guys like Soroka, Morton, Houser...

You can look at this a few ways. If you want to judge him simply because "he hasn't made the playoffs" in five years, that is certainly your right. The chance that Jed makes a really bad trade in the next three days and the Cubs miss the playoffs is possible, however, probably a bit unlikely. I also think that ignores context; such as how ownership essentially forced a selloff which tanked his first few years. You can look at it as Jed has a longer-term build. The reality is that the 2026 Cubs should be very good again; even if they don't resign Tucker, they will have a good chunk of money to spend just to get back to their somewhat frugal spending this year. Enough that barring PCA falloff, the Cubs should be a 90 win team on paper. I also think you can argue that the Cubs have left themselves a player short most years. I think a neutral look has it that the Cubs have really only had three somewhat competitive teams and that Jed has had a winning record in all of them. He vacillates from "good enough to maybe sneak in" and so far "really darn good". He's somewhat risk adverse. He does a pretty solid job of hiring smart people around him; Kantrovitz, Zombro, Breslow, Counsell...all have been good hires. And while he's got his flaws and he's imperfect, that with the emergence of analytics and front offices who really believe in them. that the difference between Hoyer and the next guy, as long as ownership doesn't change their pattern is likely moot. In the neutral view, I still think he's mostly earned it. You probably won't hire someone who will be better, and the Cubs have a good team this year. It gives him stability into the TDL, and from a media perspective it stops the "Is Hoyer going to tank the prospects 'cause he don't have an extension!" stuff. It also may help with getting the ball rolling on Tucker; and having stability there very well may help too.

Just to add, and this is a small sample size but since the Cubs series Cam Smith has: 7.1 BB%, 30.3 K%, .209/.273/.275 56 wRC+ and a .311 BABIP so it's not really bad luck. His EV is down 4+mph, his LA has remained very flat, and his hard hit% has cratered. He's a rookie and he's probably going through more learning so it doesn't mean a ton, but I think a lot of fans saw him in the Cubs series and then hasn't really looked to see what he's done since.

I think on paper he has the most assets, but he's also hamstrung a bit by the ownership as well. This is a team who is spending more in line with the division than we give him credit for at times. There are 12 more teams spending more than the Cubs currently, And last year the Cardinals spent about $20m less than the Cubs 2025 actual payroll (the LT number is higher, it should be noted) as it stands today (though this will change over the course of the next few days). The Cubs aren't out here out spending the division like they could/should very often, and they don't get any of the draft benefits for acting this way. So I think it's fair to state he gets a benefit of assets, the Cubs will probably outspend every team in the division almost every year, but probably also fair to point out that the benefits he gets aren't nearly as realized as they could be due to factors outside of Jed, too. \ My hope is that with an MiLB side of things more consistently producing MLB talent, that the Cubs can better utilize their assets. A big thing they've struggled with up until mid-2024 is that the roster had very little "free" talent; everyone was on post-arb contracts. With PCA, Shaw, Busch, Brown, Horton, and some relievers, they can begin to flush their roster out with pre-arb freebies which should help them utilize the money they still have over the rest of the division.

Love the way you said that. I can find faults with Jed overall, but almost any one of his significant moves has been logical and worked out decently well so far. They have really improved the developmental side of things, they have drafted relatively well, and have generally done well in FA (some smaller misses). He probably isn't the world's greatest VP of OPs. But he is probably just fine all things considered.

That's good. I know there are people who hate him, but he does as good of a job as anyone else, essentially. He uses analytics, his "bad years" are basically 83 wins and his good year has the Cubs atop the NL record wise (tied with Milwaukee, ahead of the Dodgers) with two months to go. He does a fine job and anyone else is probably just as good.

Well, I will be away from my phone and a computer for about seven hours today. Assume something fun will happen prior to 9:30m est just to spite me.

He has significant cut on it towards his glove side. Not much ride. It's usually one or the other. He does have an overhand release so there is natural ride on it from that, but it's not it's signature. ZiPS probably isn't useful here; as much of Shaw was underperforming metrics and Horton is more or less working within those metrics but changing his pitch mix. ZiPS actually doesn't love Cade and that's because it takes K% as an input heavily into account and Cade is getting a lot of whiff but not striking out hitters yet. But I'm unconcerned about it; Cade is learning a different way from Shaw.

Yeah, the thing about Horton is that he is missing bats; just not with two strikes. His chase% and whiff% are both around the 70th percentile. My assumption is that the Cubs have worked specifically on his fastball shape/location first and foremost; splitting his fastball into a 4-seam with cut (LHP) and a sinker (RHP). These pitches don't have a lot of strikeout usage. I think the next step will be just tweaking the slider a bit (location and pitch mix). That's when I think the K's will jump.

Fun fact: since the ASB, Matt Shaw has only one whiff.

Ian Happ HR, Shaw HR... All we need is a Dansby hit with RISP to break the game open to let twitter go crazy. Cubs Bingo.

I think it's a full-team effort. I don't want to give credit to one person, but when you have a pretty consistent history of fixing and tinkering, it's likely collective more-so than any anecdote. Like I don't doubt a Counsell said something like that, but it was also the team behind the scenes who found a way to help him implement that aspect properly. The Cubs essentially don't mess with swings until their have struggles. Which also leads me to believe in a collective effort.

Was not. Some good luck for Ian for once!

I'm a big dummy. I didn't even have a drink tonight. I have nothing to blame it on.

Same crew who tinkered and toiled with PCA and Miguel Amaya. Cubs have some good guys in the biomechanical and swing department.

Out in 19 ballparks and 99,5mph off the bat. It wasn't a cheap one.

0% chance he hits that for a home run before the ASB.

Twitter tells me Ian Hap sucks, though.

The Royals just picked up Grichuck. While neither Grichuck or Frazier are expensive buys, they aren't really acting like a team who you'd guess was wanting to move Lugo.

I expect they are trying to keep his numbers as good as they are to trade him.

Cabrera over Alcantara. He's is pitching better as is and has more control. It is also why he will cost more.

The creator of xwOBA, Jeff Simmonds, claims that LA stabilizes (in other words, eliminates randomness within the sample) after 70 events. Ian Happ, since June 1st, has 124 events. He is beyond the burden of proof of xwOBA by nearly an additional 50% and his xwOBA over that span is essentially, right in line with what he has done the last three seasons. Speaking logically, it wouldn't really make sense for it to be the case you are suggesting and Ian Happ still have better than career barrel%, because barrel% takes ideal LA into account as well. Between "it's just normal bad variance" and "maybe he has such a weird launch angle on this ground balls and fly balls that somehow his BABIP is really bad" the former is the far more likely and normal reason. Literally every year, across baseball, there are multiple hitters have two months of bad luck, just like hitters can have two months of good luck. The more I dig into the data, the more it's almost assuredly that Ian Happ has been the recipient of poor variance for a while. If he continues to hit the ball the way he has, he will likely play in line with normal Ian Hap the remainder of the year.

To be fair to Cabrera he hasn't walked more than three in any of his starts in 2025.

No. Not really. A slightly higher LA is a normal deviance. And his LA last year was 15.1, and he was great. What it does, however, is show that he isn't hitting an abnormal amount of ground balls, artificially inflating his hard hit and EV, or showing that his swing is ungodly different.