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Jason Ross
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Everything posted by Jason Ross
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Frankly, what the Rockies are doing right now might be worse. I read a recent article on what the Rockies are doing to Chase Dollander, and it basically flies in the face of everything you would do for a power arm like Dollander. Any team in baseball would probably be able to diagnose this, except the Rockies are incapable. It's to the point where it's either gross incompetence or they're all going to get nailed for sports betting.
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I would literally bet every penny I have that 29 MLB organizations look at predictive models to determine these things. Do I think it's *exactly* the data I used? Probably not, teams have all sorts of proprietary things. But they're using predictive data to look beyond "results". The Cubs traded for Michael Busch despite how poorly he had done at the MLB level, for example. His "results". I would guarantee they looked at his processes from the MiLB and determined whether or not they would translate. I say 29 organizations because I do not know what data the Colorado Rockies use, but it isn't anything good. They're likely the worst run org in professional sports.
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At this point? No idea. Last I checked he had a 9 wRC+. It's in like 30 PA's, but at this point, I don't really care.
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Ugh. I liked the Ian Stewart when they made that trade.
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Hit 96, too.
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I responded to someone who's complaint was about his batting average and that he should be dropped in the order. I pointed out his BABIP was low, suggesting that complaining about his batting average was likely misplaced.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-6-25
Jason Ross replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Boo. Was too wrapped up in Cubs/Cards and USA/Mexico so had that one on the backburner. Was really hoping we'd see a lot of that pitch after the break as he worked on something new. -
I think that's a decent bet for sure. We are probably getting closer and closer to a point where you can buy a team off of those 2-3 weeks.
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No, it doesn't mean the "results were good". But doesn't mean Ian Happ isn't and wasn't fine. Listen, if I drive to work, I drive the speed limit, I use my signal, and when I drive through an intersection with a green light, I'm driving fine. If I get plowed into by someone who has a red light, I'm still fine (as a driver, I might have a broken leg). The result is that my car is horsefeathered up, I'm unable to go to work and I have to deal with the police, but I drove just fine. So results are bad, but we know I was fine. Ian Happ is doing everything fine. The results should have been fine. If he continues those processes, much like if I obey speed limits, use signals and observe traffic laws, he will be fine. Bad luck happens. In baseball, with hundreds of hitters who have 600+ instances over 162 games (versus my one driving anecdote) there are bound to be funky data sets within. We have found one with Ian Happ. He's been fine. He will be fine.
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Wicks was supposed to follow Pomeranz yesterday, but due to Drew getting knocked out early, they went with Flexen and the plan clearly changed. I actually think Flexen will get the start next time through or they will go BP game. They only need the rotation spot one more time before July 22nd.
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I would also posit this, and I don't mean this towards you or anyone; we see a lot of what we want to see. And we remember a lot of what we want to remember. We also tend to remember things that upset us more than we remember other things; it's a lot easier to remember the Ryan Pressly blowup against the Giants than it is a 4-batter-faced appearance against the Pirates where he gave up one hit but struck out two, ya know? Data wise, Happ's fine. PA wise? I think subjective.
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No, he is also fine then, too. If he was making a ton of soft contact, if he was chasing a ton, if he was not controlling the strike zone, if his processes were poor, then we can blame him a bit for the .145 BABIP (though no MLB hitter can sustain a BABIP that low). But they weren't. Over the course of 162 games, sometimes the ball goes your way, and sometimes it doesn't. If you're doing the right things and the ball isn't going your way you are fine. Much like if a hitter is doing a lot of things poorly and the ball is just landing...he really isn't doing fine...he's just getting lucky. I'm sorry, I will not agree with this.
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Results aren't predictive. Our goal isn't to determine "what Ian Happ is going to do last April 18th" but "what is Ian Happ going to do tomorrow". It's why teams don't function like reactionary fans. We live in the moment, the Cubs live for the next 3 months. Predictive models, expected data, processes, batted ball, BABIP, all of these things suggest he's doing things fine. For example, Ian Happ has a 117 wRC+ over his last 115 PA's. His BA is .177 but has a .145 BABIP. He's running a 10% barrel rate (about career norm), with a 15.7 BB% and a 23.5 K%. It's blatantly obvious that the processes should be around the .340 wOBA we are accustomed to, but a .145 BABIP is unsustainable. He's fine. If he continues to keep these processes, he will be, roughly, the hitter we expect.
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What is "lmao" about that? We have plenty of ability to parse data. You're using batting average, but not using things like BABIP and his batted ball data to determine whether it's earned or not. His BA on the season entering the game was .231 compared to his xBA which was .255. That is a .32 point spread. His career BABIP is .308 while his BABIP this year was .274; a .28 point spread. See how close those two things are? His career wOBA is .340 and his xWOBA is .343. Again, notice how close they are? There is plenty of data to support my point here. Please, defend yours more than a dismissing "lmao" and we can discuss it further.
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He has a .273 BABIP (almost .30 points below his career average) and a near .25 point spread between wOBA and xWOBA. His xWOBA is basically his career average wOBA and all of his batted ball data is right in line with his career numbers. No, he's just fine. He's had a bunch of bad luck.
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They did it in a Cubs/Dodgers game earlier this year too. Think it was...Nico and Edman they had mic'ed up. But yeah, I wouldn't really want that from a player standpoint.
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Crazy enough, Mike Trout's best season by wRC+ would be Judge's fourth best season. His best fWAR season, as long as Judge continues this year in some fashion like he has, would be fourth best for Judge as well. In a weird way, Mike Trout wishes he was a version of Aaron Judge. (and I don't say that having known that. I was just curious based on your post where they'd sit).
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If only someone had written a big article today showing all of the iterations of Shaw's stances throughout the year and the corresponding data behind it...
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Even if he doesn't come through, really nice PA so far. Lots of fouls and really helped to run the count up. I won't be mad.
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I want the MLB to start coming to put down my measurements. I'll be 6"4 140lbs pretty quick.
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Maybe. But I think even had the last two days occurred, this would have happened. Freeman was the fan vote. He's 4th in the MLB in fWAR at 1b. Alonso and Olson are 1st and 2nd in fWAR respectively. Freeman, on June 17th, had a 161 wRC+, he's been in a slump, so it's hard to blame voters on "LA bias" because he had been great when they were voting. The selection then went to the 1st and 2nd at the position. So it's really hard to find fault in the process as long as fans vote and they close that off a bit early. Busch is mostly a causality of circumstance. He'd be the defacto starter in the AL on season alone, where as in the NL, he's been bouncing in that 3-4 range all year.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-6-25
Jason Ross replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Rest. He's already above his 2023 innings in July. -
7:10pm(est) is what they're shooting for.
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In Stowers defense, he's had a really good season. He's rocking a 140 wRC+,which is 8th best of any OF'er in baseball. That's actually better than Suzuki's 138 wRC+. They are tied for fWAR at 2.1. The Marlins needed a rep, but I think Stowers made it on his own. Suzuki and Busch really just had a stacked NL to deal with. In the AL, both probably make the roster easy. J-Rod from Seattle is on the team with a 101 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR.
