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Jason Ross
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Everything posted by Jason Ross
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Wicks has some value in a trade. Only 25 and with draft pedigree. He's shown good things in Iowa, especially recently, The swing and miss has ticked up. Command on the changeup has gotten good again. That said, he may still have more value to the Cubs. There's a decent chance he's better than Colin Rea for the rest of 2025 and could conceivably grab a rotation spot in 2026. Other teams will knock him for injuries and some poor MLB play. So it depends on how the Cubs continue to view him. If they share those same knocks, they could trade him. If they think he's better than that and making progress, then his internal value likely outpaces his trade value enough that he's unlikely to be traded.
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He's made some really nice improvements in Iowa. Think he's set up to do well. Velo is up. His change command has returned.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-3-25
Jason Ross replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I actually just edited my post! I think it's Horton. But my guess is that he looked so good last night you can really do two things: 1. Let him go into a few week timeout feeling really good and happy (as opposed to getting lit up and down) 2. It could be that with how good he's looking the team is trying to find a way to make sure his innings are there for October. He looked like a dude last night and if you get that guy consistently, he's making any staff better. -
I'll post this a few places but Jordan Wicks was just spotted arriving at Wrigley.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-3-25
Jason Ross replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Jordan Wicks is at Wrigley. I wonder if he's here to take Cade Horton's spot. Not permanently, but to give him a timeout. He can basically take the 4th - post-ASB off (July 22nd?) to reset and save some innings. You slot Wicks in this weekend for Rea, too. -
I would look at Willi Castro or Ramon Urias. Urias has moonlit at first base a few innings in his career, Castro hasn't, but has so much versatility that you can likely find some combination that works out. Both hit LHP really well, and both give you flexibility to give Shaw, Hoerner and others days off, too. Both can hit RHP decently as well. Neither are likely as in-demand as Bregman or Suarez, either, by a decent shot, which would allow you to target, say, Edward Cabrera from Miami with your bullets instead of spreading them across the board more. And I'd argue that a Castro/Urias+Cabrerra is just as good as Suarez/Bregman+Kelly if you think Matt Shaw's recent steps forward has him as a league average offensive 3b or slightly better moving forward.
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How many games do you think Alex Bregman has ever started at 1b? How many innings do you think he's ever played at 1b? Answer in the spoiler below, if you'd like to play along with the game
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There's no such thing, though. Draft picks are not players. How one team views, say, Owen Caissie, versus another is very different. There's no defined value. Gallen has been terrible this year. We probably don't want him. His fastball has taken a significant step back, and he's been among the worst SP in the league. I'd far rather have Merrill Kelly. With that said, I'd hold off trading for Suarez like Bregman. I think Shaw is teetering on the breakout and I think the Cubs should shoot for a more controlled SP with the prospect value. I wrote an article just this week on this topic, however, on names likely to be moved. You can check it out here.
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It's as much competition as it is on the Cubs. We have this really bad habit of blaming the Cubs offense, but the pitcher controls just as much of the outcome as a hitter. Yes, the Cubs couldn't put runs on the board like we'd want, but Valdez, for example, was horsefeathers nasty. Sometimes you tip your cap. What can you do? In terms of Bregman, we'll see. As well, Matt Shaw is showing really big signs of growth. The results have been highly unlucky over the year and especially recently. The EV's are popping (he's made a 4mph increase since a mechanical change) and has hit 31% of his hard hit balls in his last nine games. No shade to Bregman, he's been awesome, but he's also playing way over his xData. His wOBA is .403 but his xwOBA is .353. That's really good! But he had a 125 wRC+ two years ago with a similar wOBA. His 158 wRC+ is a positive luck. And he's going to be a starter, not a Turner replacement. Not knocking him, but the Cubs probably only have so many bullets in July and I just don't know if they'll go that route. Shaw is probably coming closer and closer to an average offensive 3b and a positive defender.
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Outside of Cantillo last night (which, I actually think Counsell got a little caught out on. He thought he was an opener and used a RHP lineup against a LHP. As well, he planned on using McGuire all series in the game against a RHP before that RHP got busted for gambling) they've gone through the worst run you could imagine against lefties. I know we want to blame the Cubs offense solely, but some of that is the fact that they've had to hit against the likes of Skubal, Luzardo, Valdez... Until last night, the worst LHP they had faced since the colander ticked over to June was Mathew Libratore who is the 22nd best SP in baseball this year. I'm fully on board with getting a better LHP hitting bench option (we need one!), but I do think context matters in their struggles against LHP right now. It's a combination of both competition and their bench.
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I'm special like that.
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Matt Shaw: 102 mph off the bat, xBA of .590. Great job,
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Matt Shaw is gong to get the game winning hit, and I'm going to look real smart for my praise. Or he'll strikeout and I'll look real dumb.
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More fun with Austin Hedges. Over his last 500 PA's he has a 39 wRC+. This is dating back to 2019. Somehow, he's so good defensively, that he's still been worth 3.5 fWAR over that span. I have a new favorite Fangraphs page.
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Somehow, Austin Hedges and his 31 wRC+ this year is an improvement on his 20 wRC+ last year. Fun fact of the night.
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It's a weird baseball game when Matt Shaw (x2) and Nico Hoerner have three of the four longest hit baseballs in a game.
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Pete never touched 1st.
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Pete Crow-Allstar. Great play. Edit: He missed first, Bummer.
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Dude. That wasn't even borderline. Stop whining, Nolan.
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In his defense, he's been very unlucky. He's running a wOBA .23 points below his xwOBA and a BABIP that would be the lowest of his career despite having strong batted ball data. He's been better than a .233 batting average suggests.
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Yeah, it's been a fun chess match today.
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We should talk more about Ryan Braiser and how good he's been.
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To be fair to the Cubs, they have the 20th best hitter against LHP in baseball as well as Suzuki. It's just that it's a lefty, in Kyle Tucker.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-3-25
Jason Ross replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I love hearing that. You are the king, CR. Thanks for confirming. I assumed that's what it was (he really looked tired his last go, I think that's what lead to the walks). A good break in the heat of summer is good for everyone. -
Shaws EV's tonight: 90,94, 102 (last one had an xBA of .750)
