Jason Ross

First off, welcome to NSBB. Secondly, to explore Matthew Boyd, let's check out his last month: Season: 2.82 ERA, 3.96 xFIP, 22.6 K%, 5.9 BB%, 78.2 LOB%, .88 HR/9 Since July 22nd: 4.10 ERA, 4.06 xFIP, 21 K%, 7.8 BB%, 70.7 LOB, 1.08 HR/9 So, looking at that, the number that probably first jumps out at you is the ERA increase, but diagnosing that is important. xFIP is a number we can use to determine how lucky or unlucky a pitcher has been and his xFIP over those two spans are nearly identical, off just by a few hundredths. If we dive deeper, he's not egregiously different as hitters are chasing, making contact and hitting generally the same amount of pitches (give or take 2% here or there). His fastball velocity is not down. His barrel% against is down and his average exit velocity is the same. A lot of the reason his ERA has jumped is because his LOB% (left on base%) is low. This is generally due to poor variance. These things happen. There does not seem to be anything wrong with Boyd. He was probably a bit lucky earlier this season. He's probably a little unlucky now. If he was getting tired we'd see a drop in velocity, which we do not see. If he was missing the zone or pitching poorly or had a mechanical flaw, we'd see that reflected in K% and BB%. Instead, things are mostly in line with what they have been. This is normal stuff. Nothing is broken.

There is a reason that uniforms like the Cardinals, Cubs, and Yankees always look good; simplicity. The worst uniforms chase trends. Across all sports. If you're a movie person, it is why movies that rely heavily on topical and "in" jokes age poorly, but strong writing, physical comedy and pithy lines are classics.

Yeesh, Pete. No.

Carson Kelly is in the 91st percentile of chase% (meaning he rarely chases pitches out of the zone), has a 71st percentile K% (meaning he strikes out well below average), a 77% whiff rate (meaning he rarely swings and misses) and an 81st percentile walk rate (meaning he walks far more than the average hitter). To recap: he swings almost exclusely at strikes, and when he does makes contact with them. He also doesnt strike out and takes well more than his fair share of walks. That is exactly a hitter who understands how to work a count.

It's not just K-zone, that is MLB's official strike zone. The umpire missed it. The expectation should not be that the hitter correctly assesses the pitch while also correctly guessing whether or not the umpire makes the right call. He watched ball three. The error is squarely on the official. Being upset at Kelly for understanding the strike zone seems silly.

He watched ball-three and the umpire called it a strike anyways. That's not on Kelly, he correctly diagnosed the pitch. You don't have to "protect the plate" on a pitch outside of the zone, the expectation should be that the umpire makes the correct call.

Whoops. Suzuki got a hit.

Making every decision based on the last two weeks is what fickle fans do because fans think the last two weeks somehow override the long vision and history of a player. There is a reason MLB teams don't operate in two-week sample sizes. Why does sitting on Tuesday somehow make Seiya Suzuki more likely to get a hit Wednesday when he already had Monday off? Can you explain that? Instead of grasping at straws, just admit that you'd rather watch Owen Caissie right now because he's an unknown. These justifications are flimsy. I'd rather be honest than try to hide our biases.

The point is that the Cubs need to, on a nigutly basis determine who is likely to give them the best chance to win. I understand everyone loves the shiny new toy, but Owen Caissie is a rookie. Seiya Suzuki has been an excellent hitter for 3.5 years. Yes, he is in a bit of a slump. But who do we expect to be better on a nightly basis? The guy who has been 30% (roughly) better than league average for 3.5 years or the kid who has 20 appearances ever at the MLB level? A slump is just that; a temporary issue that is likely to end at any given moment. It is not a waste for Caissie to be up. He provides a LHH power swing off the bench. He has 1,000 appearances in Iowa, a few weeks more will provide little. But on a nightly basis, Suzuki, not Caissie, provides the best chance to hit currently. There is zero reason to believe he is broken. They had an off day yesterday as a team, he doesn't need a day off, he literally just had one. Owen Caissie is no different than the backup QB right now. He is exciting because he is an unknown. But that unknown is also why he is a worse bet. Craig Counsell's job is to make that determination. He is a good coach. He is also correct in his assumption that Suzuki is the correct choice.

Image courtesy of © Steven Worthy / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images The MLB draft, unlike any other draft in professional sports, gives a nearly limitless glimpse into the future. Where as NFL players who are drafted within the top four rounds may legitimately end up starting Week 1 in the next season, almost every prospect taken in the MLB draft is years out from contributing to the organization at the highest level (that is, unless you are drafted by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, in which case, you may be starting against the Astros within a week). This allows us to dream any dream we want because these players are so far from realizing their potential. Now that we are a month beyond the draft, teams have signed their players and lots of them have gotten a taste of professional baseball. The curtains are slowly peeling back and we're getting more defined glimpses into the future. Not nearly enough to say anything definitive, but just enough to whet our whistle and begin to dream a little dream. So, which Cubs picks have begun to show out in their first action? Is there anyone who's struggling? Today, we'll check in on a few prospects. Fair warning: if you're looking for an update on the Cubs' first-round selection, outfielder Ethan Conrad out of Wake Forest, you will have to wait until the spring, as he is still rehabbing a shoulder injury. Many of the Cubs' other selections are pitchers, and will have limited exposure to minor league hitting as they rest their arms from a full prep or college season. However, there are a few hitters who have been able to jump into the minors and should be monitored going forward! Kane Kepley, CF - 2nd-round selection out of the University of North Carolina Myrtle Beach (Low-A) .387/.548/.532 223 wRC+, 19 BB%, 11.9 K% Kane Kepley has had an absolutely torrid start to his professional career, absolutely crushing Low-A to the tune of a wRC+ that's 123% better than league average. He's been a menace, getting on base over 53% of the time while stealing 11 bases in just 17 games. This isn't even to talk about his plus to potentially plus-plus defensive acumen as well. It's almost undebatable, but Kepley has likely gotten off to the best start of any of the Cubs draft picks. To compare Kepley, the Cubs have had a recent first-round selection who had also seen a cup of coffee in Myrtle Beach Cam Smith. Last season, in 15 games, Cam Smith had a 225 wRC+, which is almost identical to Kepley. He struck out as little more, but also hit five home runs compared to Kepley's one. Both Smith and Kepley played in the ACC as well. This is not to say that Kepley should be starting for an MLB team come April like Smith did, but it goes to show just how good of a start he is off to. I will add some caution, however; Kepley lighting up Myrtle Beach should be mostly expected. It's a league full of players who probably aren't as strong as the ACC is, so him hitting better than he did in college is a bit less exciting than if he were smoking Iowa. As well, single-skill players can find more success at lower levels as their other skills are less exploitable among younger, rawer pitchers. Kepley has a great approach and contact, but the power is likely to remain a bit of a question mark until he shows it at higher levels. I don't mean to be doom-and-gloom, but I am trying to be realistic that while this is as good of a start as we could hope for, he probably needs to show out at higher levels before we change our feeling on him too much. Still, awesome start for the former Tar Heel with the Cubs organization. Kade Snell, 1b/OF - 5th-round selection out of Alabama University .210/.319/.290 79 wRC+, 13.9 BB%, 16.7 K% The Cubs selected Kade Snell out of the SEC in the fifth round, signing the former Crimson Tide player to a slightly-under-slot contract. His power projection is less than idea, but his approach and contact ability had some strong reports coming out of college. His former college experience and advanced bat prompted the Cubs to send Snell directly to South Bend (unlike Kepley, who got sent to the lower-level Myrtle Beach) upon signing. Thus far, the aggressive promotion hasn't gone as well for Snell, but it's still quite early. While his wRC+ and the pure "results" have been underwhelming, the approach has shone through with above-average walk and strikeout rates. The initial struggle, as well, appears to be behind the hitter, as he had only two hits in his first 21 plate appearances. Since then, he's hit .267 and coupled with his excellent walk rate, has posted a much more encouraging 110 wRC+. Given his profile as a corner outfielder or first baseman, he'll need to hit for more power than he's shown, but his professional career is young; there could be an interesting platoon hitter down the road here. Josiah Hartshorn, OF, - 6th-round selection out of Lutheran High School No data yet Josiah Hartshorn has quickly become one of my favorites in the draft class. This isn't shocking, as he received the second-largest bonus (despite being the team's sixth-round pick) of any one the Cubs selected over the course of the multiple-day event, clearly showcasing how the Cubs feel about him. While we haven't had a chance to see Hartshorn play organized games, there are some really good reports coming out of the Arizona Complex from Arizona Phil. For the unacquainted, Arizona Phil (or AZ Phil for short) reports on back-field games, practices, and the like, as the Complex League is rarely broadcast and there are many moving parts. AZ Phil helps give insight on these comings-and-goings and has a lot of positives to say about Hartshorn. It sounds like the Cubs are willing to give him at look in center field, which is awesome. I don't think his size will necessarily allow him to stick there long term, but it helps to identify the type of athleticism we're seeing from him and that it doesn't sound like he's a first-base-only prospect. The reports on the contact ability are also excellent. While he'll be a different type of hitter, Owen Caissie got some early looks at times in center field (prior to coming to the Cubs). Both are bigger guys, so having that type of athleticism early in their career helps you believe they can maintain enough to play RF or LF for the foreseeable future. We probably won't get much data on Hartshorn in 2025, but he sounds like someone who could have a rocket ship attached to his back in 2026. What do think of these three players? Have any of them changed your opinions? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article

My favorite prospects almost all have a similar underlying current of either: I was super-super high on them on draft day or I super super undersold them. I know I thought the moment they drafted him "Who?' and then reading initial scouting wasn't sold. Being wrong is my favorite thing and he absolutely has been a joy to watch develop. I know had I been running an organization at the deadline he'd have been on the top of my "add this guy to sweeten the pot" list and I'd love to see him get a shot with the Cubs. Cool story and profile.

Martin remains one of my favorite recent stories. To go from "guy who signed for basically nothing" to "probably going to make an MLB appearance in his life" is super cool. I know I unfairly discounted him on draft day and I know I'm not alone. I love being wrong.

Maybe if it was September and the Giants had an extra SP on the roster or a young pitcher and went to a 6 man, but outside of that, there should be no reason to expect the Giants to rest a P on normal rest, even if they're not in playoff contention.

Nothing will be official until he takes the mound, but yes, he's lined up to pitch that day as of now.

None of that is silly. There is a separate "Location+" metric which details command and where a pitcher locates his pitches. You can have excellent spin rate, shape and movement but if you cannot command it, then it's not something you can throw too often. I would like the Cubs to get Palencia to use his slider more, but it's a work in progress. It's also on the pitcher to trust the pitch. Something that as much as we'd love him to do internally, he may not entirely feel that trust yet. It's very easy to fall in love with a pitch like a 102mph fastball and moving a guy off of that a bit is hard. Ultimately, you seem to want to confirm your eye test which is that the slider is a not a good pitch by suggesting that the data is wrong or that the team doesn't believe in it. I think there are many other factors. Two things can be true: that Daniel Palencia has all of the ingredients of a really good slider but likely needs to take some steps before he has a lot of trust in the pitch. Remember, this was a walk machine just a year ago. It'll probably take some time.

I almost added this exact sentiment. You read my mind.

It is based on release point, velocity, movement, and spin. Baseball Prospectus has their own pitch modeling system, and they too grade out his slider as excellent. It has a +3 RV based on MLB's Statcast, a 39% whiff rate, and a lower wOBA against than his fastball. It also has a .228 xwOBA on the pitch, too so he's been a little unlucky with it. I think your eyes are playing tricks on you. Every data point suggests it's a very good offering; both modeling and real world results.

All of his pitches grade out as plus or better on FanGraphs Stuff+ shape modeling. His slider is his best one.

Taillon pulled for tight groin.

No. It's possible. The Cubs have a really weak schedule and the Brewers have a much harder road. The Cubs hold the season tie-break over the Brewers. 5GB is not impossible today. It's unlikely, but this week has given the Cubs a chance.

W

I could see that too. But I do think at some point the team will have to look at the crew of Alcantara, Long, Caissie, Ballesteros and say "We have too many". Maybe I'm wrong, but it feels like a decision will have to be made at some point (and I think this offseason is kind of the last moment before they begin to have diminishing value returns on trades) and trading some of those prospects while also banking the money with a pre-FA SP feels a very "Cub" way to handle spending.

I would be shocked if they don't bring in at least one SP. I think one of two things will happen this offseason: 1. They will resign Kyle Tucker and then they're going to kind of have too many prospects who will be blocked, they will almost assuredly be forced into making a trade and SP is the one thing they really need. So I would expect a trade for a controlled SP. 2. They don't resign Tucker. At this point the Cubs would have a ton of money to spend - even if the Cubs don't go over the LT, just to get back to 2025 spending they'll have tons of money. They'll sign a Michael King + someone. Or maybe it's a Dylan Cease. They'll get one. They almost would have to. I don't know who it'll be, but I think either way the Cubs will get a MORP or better.

Nico with some pop!