Jason Ross

They're fairly close most of the time, but not always. Even a 5 point swing is a bit more than it would seem, as the data is really a percent. So a 110 wRC+ hitter (or a 110 OPS+) is considered 10% better than league average (average is 100). Being a 123 wRC+ hitter vs a 118 wRC+ means a 5% swing above average. Regardless, even if they're close, wRC+ is the better indicator. OPS+ isn't terrible, but if our goal is to be as accurate as possible, wRC+ is just more accurate. Which helps in both fWAR and in terms of just looking at offensive value. And you're welcome! Always glad to help. Baseball data is a vast pit and there's some red herrings within it. Many data points can sometimes seem relevant but used incorrectly paint a wrong picture. I'm a big fan of "it takes a community" and "pay it forward". There's a ton in the data I learn from others, too! Together we can all understand baseball better.

I understand any skepticism on the end of Ricketts. He deserves no defense for his spending patterns. Fair worry. Fair critique. What I think we need to move away from is the "they've never spent X, so they wont spend Y" form of belief as to why the Cubs won't sign Tucker. That's how records work. The Mets had never signed a $400m deal, let alone a $700m deal. The Jays had never signed a $500m deal let alone a $200m deal. This is how record spending works. Its pretty widely believed the Cubs offered over $400m to Ohtani. I get that people like to throw around accusations like "that's just a token offer to appease fans that they knew hed never sign" stuff, but thats just conjecture. Reality is they seemed to be willing to go there. We will see how in-the-weeds they get with Kyle. I don't think he will command over $500 and I do think the Cubs will be in the ballpark ultimately. But I am optimistic.

fWAR uses OAA and other statcast data where as bWAR uses DRS. Generally speaking OAA and statcast is superior to DRS, yes. I do think the gap between the two is less then that of OPS+ and wRC+ simply due to the wonky nature of defensive metrics and how far along we are on offensive data points. But its another factor.

OPS by nature is flawed because of how it weighs OBP (on a scale from 0-1.000) and SLG (on a scale from 0-4.000), By weighing them equally, despite different scales, it creates an issue. Think of it like this, if I have two quarters, and four nickels, saying I have "six" is misleading. Having four quarters and two nickels is also "six" but one of these is more than the other. By saying that "one coin = the same" we create a situation where it could look like both are the same "six" but in one situation I have $.70 and the other I have $1.10. In a similar way, this is how OPS treats OBP and SLG, where two 100 OPS+ hitters are not really the same. The "+" is helpful, in any data set, as when you see "+" it means that the number is adjusted for things such as hitting environment (we know that the steroid era was a different offensive environment than, say, the dead-ball era) and ballpark. Things like that. It can help us compare data sets year to year, but also player to player. We know hitting 80 games in Coors isn't like hitting 80 games in, say, Seattle. OPS+ does do this because it has the "+" involved, but the scaling issue is the prime culprit of where the issues are. If you see an "x" this is "expected"; also using league data to determine what we should "expect" - useful to determine luck. wRC+ looks to fix the scaling issues within OPS while also still adding in the "+" that adjusts for hitting environments. It scales the two more accurately and thus creates a better silver-bullet one data point. In my coin example, it would determine one of us had 70 cents and the other a dollar-ten. From a personal standpoint, it's the best way to value offense in 2025. Using anything else is purposefully using outdated methods. OPS+ had it's time in the sun a decade or more ago, but we're beyond that. It's like using an iPod Touch instead of an iPhone with spotify on it. You-do-you, but there's more efficient ways of doing it, ya know? bWAR fo pitching will factor in ERA, or at least, a version of it. But this is inherently where my issues come from bWAR; results based data doesn't really always equate well to prediction models. If the goal of data is not only to determine current value, but also help us predict value in the future, using results based like bWAR is less useful. FIP, which looks to eliminate noise around a pitcher, is better, IMO. Now, it does create an interesting conundrum with someone like Ben Brown. xFIP can tend to hide pitchers who give up contact that doesn't land as a HR; a double isn't really found within xFIP's data set, for example (FIP looks at things only a pitcher controls, such as Ks, BBs and HRs as a double would involve defense and that creates that "noise"). But the idea behind xFIP is that in situations like we see with Brown, eventually he'll give up home runs and we'll find the data.

For pitchers, bWAR uses a formular that is more results based than fWAR. I find fWAR, thus, a better indicator for future performance as it uses xFIP over things like runs created. For offense fWAR relies on wRC+ as its foundation where as bWAR uses OPS+. wRC+ is a better weighted offensive statistic than OPS+, which isnt horrible, but wRC+ was created to fix the issues inherent in OPS+. In terms of "silver bullet offensive metrics" wRC+ stands the tallest and gives fWAR a better foundation for their numbers. On both sides I find fWAR a better model. WAR is imperfect and has some inherent flaws like all data points (no where near enough to discredit it however) but fWAR is the best publicly available all-encompassing number we have because foundationally, it uses better input data. At least in my opinion. (Though as an aside it remains somewhat interesting at times to compare the two).

Levine specifically mentioned trading for a SP. So this isnt it. Likely just swapping Pearson for Fulmer so they have more BP coverage.

It would be the first time he didn't get five days of rest all year, so catching him Thursday is probably not the worst of outcomes, even if he's a pretty good arm.

I think this is a pretty unfair assessment. He has 35 PA's so far in Myrtle, hasn't been in the system for even a full year yet, and is very much in the mold of "developmental prospect". He's not coming from, say an SEC school, but a midwest prep-program (so not even super-high-level pre-ball). Let's get past 35 PA's before we diagnose what his issues are. Instead, I'd recommend focusing on a couple of other things: 1. The Cubs tend to select a hand-picked overslot player in the 11th round. Zyhir Hope was a similar pick. 2. Lovach was slated to go to Arkansas, which has been one of the better baseball programs of recent times. 3. His body is very much a "work in progress". 4. This is the first time he's ever focused solely on hitting, he was a two-way prospect up to the draft I think he's a good developmental prospect who hit better in Arizona than I expected and made it to Myrtle faster than I expected. I thought he was going to spend the entire year with the Complex team and be locked into a weight room. Clearly the org was happy enough with his .362 wOBA and 20 K% in Arizona to move him up. There's real upside here. I suspect he will be more of a "slow burner", and think the jump will take place not in 2025, but in 2026 regardless.

Today is a little harder to swallow, but I'll give him this; the weather the conditions are not positive for any pitcher. The Cubs have tagged a really good arm for four today already it's super hot/humid, and the Cubs are in the middle of a 16 games in 17 game stretch. Even if Rea serves up a bomb, it's probably better than putting Nate Pearson out there and having him walk a guy and then giving up a home run. Rea throws strikes and anyone in the league feels like could go yard. The Cubs need to preserve relievers a bit. One of the things that I think Counsell knows the best is that it's a 162 game season and you can't live and die on every game. I really like that about him.

Boyd was hurt. The Cubs have said his shoulder had a huge bruise on it and he couldn't go back out. That's not on Craig.

New Shaw mechanics.

Well, their body types don't have anything to do with their debuts. It isn't like Moises Ballesteros height/weight/body type were a secret, you know? That doesn't make sense. Like I said, if you have concerns about him defensively, then I think it's a fair critique. I think if you have concerns about the power profile at DH, I think that's a fair critique. Being concerned about a rookie over a 10-game-sample size is not a fair critique. Almost every prospect has struggled in their initial run currently at the MLB level right now. Much of this is a belief that as teams fear pitching injuries teams would rather not "waste bullets" in Triple-A, thus making the jump between Triple-A and MLB larger than it has been.. A recent anecdote is to look at how the Reds have dealt with Chase Burns, their top pitching prospect. Burns is the #2 pick last year. He went 11 innings last year post-draft, 40 in Double-A and then made just 12 innings in Louisville (their Triple-A affiliate). He's pitching in Cincinnati Tuesday night making his debut less than a year after his draft day. I don't to down play it, he's a very good prospect and has crushed each level, but this is fast. Because these arms are skipping over this level right now, guys like Ballesteros and Anthony are getting a rude awakening when they come to the MLB because they just don't get a chance to see Burns often. I just wouldn't worry myself over what I think I saw over 20 PA's. It's meaningless data on that front. I share some questions over his position and power myself. His debut? Not a drop of concern. That's just what rookies look like. Defensively he's incapable of playing OF. It's likely catcher, 1b and DH only, and I think as a catcher, it's far less likely he's a 100 game guy. I think he's more of a 70 game type who plays DH and 1b on his offdays.

Yeah, my assumption is that the team is using the bench, getting guys a day off, and cycling in a lefty. But with how limited the Cubs' bench has been, it's kind if interesting to see them use anyone not named-Justin-Turner in back-to-back days.

Yeah. I think it's very likely that we lose at least one of the Caissie, Ballesteros, Alcantara, Rojas, or Wiggins group if they acquire something above the Andrew Heaney tier of pitcher. I'm not sure who it'll be, but headlining a trade with like James Triantos and Christian Franklin for a SP you slot in using pen for a playoff rotation is a pipedream that happens only on reddit, bluesky and forums.

I think it depends on a lot. If the last-17-innings is an indication of who Alcantara is for the next 1.5 years he's more than worth a top-50 prospect, especially if you believe the Cubs pitching infrastructure is better than Miami's. Thankfully, I doubt there's a trade that's going to go down for the next few weeks so that 17-inning-sample will likely jump to around 30 or so to give you a better idea. But the way I think we should approach any trade we discuss (real, rumor, idea or otherwise) is that "if it doesn't feel like it hurts, it's probably not realistic". Would it kind of suck to trade Caissie or Alcantara or Ballesteros or whatever? Yeah it would. But that's what real trades take, generally, a little pain from us to acquire something good.

Brujan getting some run lately. I wonder a few things about this: 1. Have the Cubs decided more-and-more to use their bench a bit more? 2. Are the Cubs getting "done" with Brujan? They tend to do this with bench players when they're over it; they give them a few "last chances" to impress and then DFA them. On #2, Long has been in a bit of a rut lately. He has seen an uptick in 3b, but the Cubs would still be lacking some bench options if they swapped him for Brujan. Instead, maybe could the Cubs go to Franklin as a 4th OF and let Jon Berti get some run? He's been pretty bad but they could trust him more. I'd guess it's just getting to "doldrums of summer" and it's the Cubs know they have to give some days off.

I think they very well may get Caissie for Alcantara. There seems to be some positive progression in Alcantara's game. The velocity on the season has been around what we have always seen, sitting 97-98mph on average and Stuff+ still likes the shape. He's struggled with location, which to me suggests more along the lines of rust (and potentially Marlins lack of pitching infrastructure). Over his last three starts, Alcantara has a 22.4 K%, a sub 5 walk%, a 2.12 ERA, and an xFIP of 3.38. Now, yes, two of those starts were Colorado and Pittsburgh, but Philadelphia is mixed in too. I think there's a decent reason to believe that as Sandy works back from missing 1.5+ years he'll begin to find the consistency he's lacked. With his control and ceiling, he's a decent bet to cost a top-50 prospect + some.

Aaron Judge has a 58 wRC+ over his last 35 PAs, including a 42.5 K%. Everyone has a tricky stretch. Don't make six games more than it needs to be.

W

Not egregious. Hard to tell if it caught the zone or if it's right on the edge of the zone. I think it's *probably* a ball, and he's missed a few calls. Seiya is probably fed up with the borderlines going against him, thus his reaction.

Cal Raleigh can go back to Seattle.

It's hot out there today, but guy behind the plate ain't got his best stuff on the strikes and balls today.

My hope is that Ricketts doesn't really care much about how the money is spent, and cares more about the total number of the budget is. I think Hoyer would sign Tucker to a big contract.

It could be! But I'll say this; I think any contract that starts with a 5 or a 6 for Tucker will be heavily laden with differed money. Real world value probably is between $425-$475m.

I know everyone is super down on signing him back...sneaky feeling it gets done. I don't know. Maybe I'm an optimist, but I think the Cubs will come to the conclusion that this is the guy to go all in on. We'll see. I've been wrong...oh man, so many times (he says trying to find any post from 2021 defending Burl Carroway's control and that he'd get it together just to make sure it's scrubbed from the internet)...just a hunch here. At least, I'll say this; I think we gave up fair amounts. Really you can boil it down to Parades, Smith and Wesneski. Or in other words, Morel, Bigge, Smith and Wesneski. Morel has been terrible, Wes had TJS, Bigge looks like a good reliever (but not as good as his first run - hope he's okay after the scare!) and Smith has had his first good run in the pros, but I'm still kind of bearish on him. I think we'll be okay even if we don't keep Tuck,