Jason Ross

Generally speaking, I'm pretty unconvinced there's anything to suggest that there's some magical skill where hitters are better/worse with RISP. I'm also generally unconcerned about order decisions outside of like, if Tucker and PCA were hitting 8 and 9. But beyond that, even if it is a real thing, Swanson's career numbers are: No runners: 92 wRC+ Runners on: 102 wRC+ Runners in scoring: 106 wRC+ His season wRC+ of 98 is two points higher than his career of 96 wRC+. I think it's safe to assume the 15 with RISP this year, which is just 85 PA's, is likely the outlier even if you believe either in order importance or that hitting with RISP is a definable skill.

Alcantara's issues against anything that isn't a fastball this year is concerning. And they haven't gotten any better from last year. The biggest issue is that he's not chasing breaking balls at an extreme rate, meaning a lot of this is in-zone whiff. Which isn't a great sign. I've got real concerns. I think Wiggins might make an MLB debut this year but think it's less than likely. There's enough ahead of him on the 40-man that it would have to likely be a few 60-Man IL trips to get there. With that said I don't think it's impossible.

Moises Ballesteros With the graduations of Horton and Shaw, this is my favorite prospect in the system. He's got a great bat, and I think he'll catch in some fashionOwen Caissie In-zone whiff has dropped each month, power is blowing up at the same time. Overall numbers look worse than the progress, Jaxon Wiggins Rocket. Ship. Dude has done everything you could ask and on pure ceiling maybe he belongs in the #1 slot. I won't go that far yet...but...September?Kevin Alcantara Really struggled against non-fastballs this year and I think that's a bit of a red flag. Maybe I'm being unfair, but it really stands out as an issue and I'd like to see that fixed.Jefferson Rojas Awesome, awesome, awesome year. Maybe belongs higher.Jonathon Long Hard to ignore the batted ball data and the progress. If he could play anything but 1b/DH he'd be a top-5 prospect in the systemCristian Hernandez Nice progress with the bat this year. Would like a few more home runs, but...alas.James Triantos Been injured and just hasn't been great. Batted ball data paints an un-fun picture, but that's sometimes what you get with an aggressive hitter who makes a lot of contactBrandon Birdsell The injuries are a bummer. Thought he could debut in Chicago this year. Graduations keep him just inside the top-10 right nowChristian Franklin Weird year of peaks and vallys. MLB upside, but maybe 4th OFWill Sanders All the way up to Triple-A. Statcast isn't sexy, and Sanders probably is a #4 at best, but that's value and he's close to the MLB. Could realistically swap him and Birdsell with his injuries.Cole Mathis Just hasn't been very good when he's been on the field. Hoping it's rust and some nagging as he comes back from TJS. Pedro Ramirez Still don't love the power but he hits a bunch. Poor man's James Triantos in some ways? Ryan Gallagher Still in SB so I can't really elevate him too much but the K% is absurd and the velocity increase gives a reason to believe this isn't the yearly breakout of a pitchability guy in the lower levels.Eli Lovich Starting to believe the hype a bit. There's a ceiling here that I can't quite pinpoint but he's looking better, quicker than I thoughtPablo Aliendo The yearly data isn't as sexy as recent numbers. 158 wRC+ since May 18th at Catcher though stands out. Could make Iowa this year at 24. Potential MLB catcherJuan Tomas Just got to the DSL. Interested in the upsideNazier Mule Had a rough run right before injury. He's back. Stuff still looks solid.Ivan Brethowr Weak-ish last month. The walks remain good, K's are creeping up a bit. Want more power. Still intrigued about the overall. With graduations he belongs in the top-20Grant Kipp Older prospect pitching well in Knoxville gives me pause. But the numbers look great. I've got him as most likely a mid-inning RHOGY (right hitter only guy) with his fastball slider, but there's upside as a potential SP so he gets the nod over Neely or injured Gray I know everyone's going to be down on the system overall, but I'm less as pessimistic. Think there's still MLB talent in the 15-25 range (I could have added Carico, Cruz, Gray Cabada...). It's probably not as absurdly deep as it was a few years ago where a Grant Kipp might have been legitimately the 27th best prospect in the system, but such is life. Expect a few top-10 types go to at the deadline (depending on the return will depend on how high those prospects rank) but the Cubs will probably add some guys back from the draft.

Moises Ballesteros With the graduations of Horton and Shaw, this is my favorite prospect in the system. He's got a great bat, and I think he'll catch in some fashionOwen Caissie In-zone whiff has dropped each month, power is blowing up at the same time. Overall numbers look worse than the progress, Jaxon Wiggins Rocket. Ship. Dude has done everything you could ask and on pure ceiling maybe he belongs in the #1 slot. I won't go that far yet...but...September?Kevin Alcantara Really struggled against non-fastballs this year and I think that's a bit of a red flag. Maybe I'm being unfair, but it really stands out as an issue and I'd like to see that fixed.Jefferson Rojas Awesome, awesome, awesome year. Maybe belongs higher.Jonathon Long Hard to ignore the batted ball data and the progress. If he could play anything but 1b/DH he'd be a top-5 prospect in the systemCristian Hernandez Nice progress with the bat this year. Would like a few more home runs, but...alas.James Triantos Been injured and just hasn't been great. Batted ball data paints an un-fun picture, but that's sometimes what you get with an aggressive hitter who makes a lot of contactBrandon Birdsell The injuries are a bummer. Thought he could debut in Chicago this year. Graduations keep him just inside the top-10 right nowChristian Franklin Weird year of peaks and vallys. MLB upside, but maybe 4th OFWill Sanders All the way up to Triple-A. Statcast isn't sexy, and Sanders probably is a #4 at best, but that's value and he's close to the MLB. Could realistically swap him and Birdsell with his injuries.Cole Mathis Just hasn't been very good when he's been on the field. Hoping it's rust and some nagging as he comes back from TJS. Pedro Ramirez Still don't love the power but he hits a bunch. Poor man's James Triantos in some ways? Ryan Gallagher Still in SB so I can't really elevate him too much but the K% is absurd and the velocity increase gives a reason to believe this isn't the yearly breakout of a pitchability guy in the lower levels.Eli Lovich Starting to believe the hype a bit. There's a ceiling here that I can't quite pinpoint but he's looking better, quicker than I thoughtPablo Aliendo The yearly data isn't as sexy as recent numbers. 158 wRC+ since May 18th at Catcher though stands out. Could make Iowa this year at 24. Potential MLB catcherJuan Tomas Just got to the DSL. Interested in the upsideNazier Mule Had a rough run right before injury. He's back. Stuff still looks solid.Ivan Brethowr Weak-ish last month. The walks remain good, K's are creeping up a bit. Want more power. Still intrigued about the overall. With graduations he belongs in the top-20Grant Kipp Older prospect pitching well in Knoxville gives me pause. But the numbers look great. I've got him as most likely a mid-inning RHOGY (right hitter only guy) with his fastball slider, but there's upside as a potential SP so he gets the nod over Neely or injured Gray I know everyone's going to be down on the system overall, but I'm less as pessimistic. Think there's still MLB talent in the 15-25 range (I could have added Carico, Cruz, Gray Cabada...). It's probably not as absurdly deep as it was a few years ago where a Grant Kipp might have been legitimately the 27th best prospect in the system, but such is life. Expect a few top-10 types go to at the deadline (depending on the return will depend on how high those prospects rank) but the Cubs will probably add some guys back from the draft.

Thank you for that shout!

I've talked about this a few places, but the concern over a lot of Matt Shaw's EV's are largely overblown. It's a feature, not a bug in many ways. When you trade strikeouts for contact, you eventually make a decent amount of weak contact. This lowers your average exit velocity. By hitting pitches on the shadow of the plate more often instead of swinging and missing, you'll hit a few weak infield hits and you'll hit some weak infield ground balls. I'm not saying improvement isn't capable, possible, or even preferred, but this is what Shaw does, and has done. He hits a lot of balls. He probably swings a little too much. But high-swing+high-contact = low average exit velocity many times. He's got to learn a bit better about the pitches to swing at, and the pitches to leave go. Just because you can hit it doesn't mean you should. He's a rookie and this is a process. That said, it's overblown. Shaw's not running a stupid high BABIP (.319, very do-able with his speed) and a 96wRC+ since returning with better mechanics. For a rookie this is decent. League 3b are hitting at a 97 wRC+ clip; so he's been virtually league average at the position offensively. A lot of the EV issue has cropped up over a bad week which saw him struggle. Prior to that he was running a 148 wRC+ and a 7.7% barrel rate (since his re-promotion). We should expect the league and Shaw oscillate between one step forward, one step back as they figure each other out more.

Was about to come on here and be like "Yeah, like I get PCA plays some good CF defense, but like, so do I, and Lexington Adult Baseball tickets are free" and then the jerk has to hit the ball 450 feet and ruin the illusion.

Count me out on all three for many reasons. Kikuchi falling back on his face kind of lets you know what you have to do as an organization to keep him up. He's not super young, he's signed to a market rate contract for a few years and he's been really bad. Soriano is a bit of a fixer upper and with the TJS, makes you wonder. Jensen looks toasted. Think the Cubs can and should be able to find better value elsewhere.

I would guess Horton will head to the BP for a time. Yes. I think he's been too good to take him out right now, but as we inch closer to the deadline the Cubs will be able to bring in at least a SP and he will probably take some time in the BP. He may be a playoff starter depending on who they bring in via trade and they may ramp him back up, but he won't be able to keep going every 5th all season.

I would guess far more straight forward. Sending Brown to Iowa for a "developmental list" stint with the explanation of "working on his changeup" allows the Cubs to keep Genesis Cabrerra and limit Brown's innings with a plausible explanation. I doubt the Cubs play yo-yo like that.

I think it remains "possible" but my guess is "unlikely". That means 2 of your 13 pitchers on your roster are essentially doing the job of one. In other words, while the rest of the league is running a 13 man pitching staff, you're running what is closer to 12. I won't say I know exactly how the Cubs feel about that, but my guess is they would not go that route.

I doubt Imanaga will replace Rea. I would expect one of Brown or Horton (my guess the former) will either find his way to Iowa (and pitch every 6th day vs every 5th) or phantom IL, or find his way to the BP to limit innings.They need to begin to watch those a bit. Horton has probably been too good to be the guy being limited now. Rea has innings to burn and the Cubs have leeway in the division right now. I'm non-plussed letting Rea take the bulk of the starts as the number 5 moving forward as I don' think he'll be the reason they don't win it at this stage. And we agree on the type of arm. My initial post was "impact arm".

It's probably impossible to limit two SP's and replace a third. That's just not going to happen. The Cubs are currently 5.5 games up in the central and Rea isn't going to be anything but long-man mop-up in the playoffs more than likely. They don't really need to replace him. They can survive there. On the first sentence, I'm not super interested in speculating names, but the reality is this: there is always a few guys who can slot into an 8th or 9th inning role at the deadline. There will be some. Who? Like I said, we're too early to speculate, but I trust that this won't be the first deadline in history without a good reliever available somewhere.

I'm with Bertz in that I'm pro "impact pitching". Even if it's a reliever, the Dodgers proved last year you can survive in the post-season with a deep and varied bullpen carrying you more often than you'd like. If the Cubs went into the playoffs with a pitching staff of: SP: Shota, Boyd, Taillon RP: Horton, Brown, Hodge, Pressley, Pomeranz, Thielbar, Palenica, Braiser, Rea/Flexen, and another Impact Arm You'd be a in a good spot. Figure there's a few guys who can go a few innings (Horton, Brown, Rea/Flexen) a bunch of power arms and a good mix in between. Even if you do a BP game in there, you'd probably be more than capable of filling it all out. Obviously that's "best case scenario" assuming injuries are kind.

The positive is that between the Giants and the Red Sox, one of those teams operates far closer to how the Cubs do (Boston) financially. SF has felt like for a guy they liked, they'd try to overpay some to get him, at least recently. For all of the doom and gloom when it comes to how Ricketts spends, Henry is from the same ilk. If we are worried about Henry going all in for Tucker, Id assume Ricketts would too. If we are afraid Ricketts wont, we'll, Id hold the same concerns if I were a Red Sox fan about Henry, if that makes sense. The two share similar M.O.s

Berti isn't good by a long shot, but he does get the bat on the ball most of the time. You don't necessarily need good contact in 2nd-3rd, 0 Out, 10th-inning tie game, just...contact and you've got a good chance Brujan scores. Don't think it's a particularly egregious choice. If it was 2nd and 3rd, with two outs? Yeah, probably Shaw who sees the PA there. But I suspect the goal was to give the kid today and tomorrow off and in that situation, Berti was probably okay. Sucks he struck out. That wasn't good.

Cubs won 3 of 4. The only loss was against Paul Skenes. You don't get style points. Good series.

Happ calls game.

Does Brujan need a smaller helmet? That thing legitimately never stays on.

Great base running.

I think you hope to find a better place for him. Bases loaded for McGuire probably isn't what you want either. And then you're probably not going to even get a chance for Tucker. Santana doesn't walk guys, so the bases loaded aspect probably isn't a big factor, either. Maybe for a wild man. Saving him was *probably* the right move. McGuire walks and you're 1st and 2nd in the 10th? You've got a chance he can swing.

They'd just put him on.

Cubs xBA is only .239 today. Some good EV's but generally just not a great day, either.

Erian Rodriguez with SB has been great tonight. 6IP, 5K, 1 BB, 4H, 0 R, 0 ER

I only have the gameday app up for the game right now, but on his third walk, the app had three of the four balls he threw pitches as "strikes"