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Jason Ross
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Everything posted by Jason Ross
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Ive known you for a while, my friend. The Cubs have the same amount of wins as the Los Angeles Dodgers and it is beyond the ASB and half way point. I understand it can be frustrating how the Brewers are surging, but you are more logical than this take. The Cubs won't just be given the division but this is an emotional reaction and not a logical one.
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I think we are well beyond the Theo era ramifications. But I do think the Cubs have to operate on more of a budget than needed and it does create a situation where they need to be crafty at times. Hopefully that as the Cubs have more and more prospects (and thus cheap contracts) that they can spend more of the budget they do have on upper level players. The Matt Shaws, Pete Crow-Armstrongs and the like will be important to allow that. Cheap, young starters are worth their weight in gold.
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A great observation as well! Its much more likely a Will Sanders will make an MLB start than, say, JP Wheat. Wheat throws 100mph and it's super cool but the distance he has to go to be an MLB starter and Will Sanders is huge. If everything breaks right, Wheat will be a better pitcher but Sanders had a shorter distance to travel from 5th round SEC pitcher than Wheat as a prep arm.
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I wouldn't agree with that. The Cubs draft plenty of upside arms. Cade Horton, Jaxon Wiggins, Jackson Ferris were drafted in the top two rounds in the last three years. They have also draft upside prep arms like JP Wheat and Naz Mule. They do target largely college bats in the top-2 rounds but arms are volatile and it isnt like the Cubs arent drafting college bats well when they do. They are largely praised, have almost all had success. Pitchers take a good amount of time, can randomly miss 1.5 years with surgery and stuff at young ate generally comes with a red flag of command issues. The Cubs have prioritized strike throwing recently. Sure. But their goal pitching wise has been quality arms regardless of how they do it. And despite the lack of "power" at times, they have generally succeeded. Shota throws 90 and gets good wiff. Steele throws low 90s and strikes out plenty. Pitching is an issue this year but that is in large part due to injuries. They lost Steele immediately, lost Shota a month, lost Taillon...its been an uphill battle. I'll admit I always thought the staff was one short and we are seeing that now.
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Appreciate the kind words! I will add this; the Cubs have too many players for too few positions. They will *have* to trade some. Players are going to begin to run out of option years, players will also lose value sitting in Iowa. It is cool to have backup plans, but prospects are useful in two ways; they can help your team directly through callups or can help your team in asset acquisition. I wouldn't suggest the Cubs trade 'em all, but trading some is necessary. Pick your favorite OF, Alcantara or Caissie. Pick your favorite 1b/DH in Ballesteros or Long. So they should be looking to make some trades regardless.
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Part of our pitching is predicated on throwing so much spaghetti on the wall that some still stick, sure. But within that is also knowing when to pull the plug and that the clock has struck midnight. Chris Flexen has been playing with fire. He has gotten lucky to maintain run prevention. He has been far better at that for longer than I expected. But it is also probably midnight and Flexen is likely to turn back into a pumpkin. I appreciate what he gave us, but it doesnt make him a strong starting option.
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The Rangers won a WS with Nathan Eovaldi as their best SP. The idea you *need* an ace is not proven by recent data. The Dodgers won with Yamamoto, Walker Buehler and multiple BP games. They had one good SP. A great offense! But their staff, on paper, isn't what won it.
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Really good pitchers can have a bad 5-6 starts. They are still really good. Just like sucky pitchers can have good runs for 36 innings! Chris Flexen probably sucks. But he way overperformed for the Cubs and I am thankful for that. I dont want to sound ungrateful, but he is likely as bad of an option to start a game as Brown is.
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There are plenty of SP's for the Cubs to acquire. Realistically all of the following are available for the right price: MacKenzie Gore, Joe Ryan, Sandy Alcantara, Merril Kelly, Zac Gallen, Michael Soroka, Charlie Morton... Those are just a few off the top of my head and at various levels of ability. Some are buy low (Morton./Soroka) who have pitched better than their ERA suggest. Gore is a top-line pitcher who would cost a ton. All could be acquired using the system the Cubs have. Outside of Suarez, what difference making hitters are available? Most hitters are complimentary and the Brewers would get better by getting a Willi Castro or whatever, but he won't transform the team, either.
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Reminder: 48 hours ago the Cubs had the best record in baseball, and even with a loss tonight will either have the same amount of wins as the Dodgers or one more win than them. We really don't need to panic.
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Chris Flexen has 36 innings this year where he has an xFIP of 4.83. He has 684 IP in MLB and an xFIP of 5.03. His career ERA is 4.72. This season his K% is down from his career 16.2% to 13.6%. Of all pitchers with 40 IP, three in the league have a lower K%. He's had a lucky season. But if past production meant future prediction, Bryan LaHair would be a muilt-season all-star. Underlying data is the way to predict the future. Flexen is bad. He's just been fairly lucky.
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Shota only throws his sweeper to LHH. To RHH he is almost entirely fastball-splitter. Even if Brown adds a changeup, it would almost be exclusively to LHH. He would remain fastball-deathball exclusively to RHH. The issue is not movement but command.
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Flexen also sucks. Yes. He's a pumpkin. He's getting away with bottom barrel whiff (5th percentile) and chase (2nd percentile) rates. He misses barrels, but it's not an elite barrel miss rate. He also gives up a good deal of FB's so he doesn't profile as a FIP beater His xFIP is 4.83.
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It would help if he had a little horizontal movement, but I don't think you have to have it. Shota Imanaga kills RHP going fastball-splitter and they run on a similar plane. His control of the fastball up and the splitter away kills hitters. Brown just pipes too many pitches because he cannot spot the fastball enough in a good place.
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It's a two-party system. The Cubs cannot force a team to make a trade unless they overpay. As much as people are upset today that Brown was ******, they'd almost assuredly be just as mad as the excess trade capital they'd have to make to force these teams off their stance of "I'm competing". It's a double edged sword and the Cubs are damned if they do and damned if they don't. You're currently stuck dealing with the Rockies, White Sox and the A's if you want a SP. Or you're dealing with the fringe teams, like even Baltimore, and forcing them off their "Oh yeah, well we aren't selling" mantra. Even if we know they will eventually, they won't until they have to. These teams hold the power currently. It's a tough situation.
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Because Chris Flexen also sucks. The Cubs were probably hoping that Brown against the Royals would be more effective against a poor team and build confidence. Didn't work, sadly.
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His fastball is fine on the surface. It's two fold: 1. Hitters can sit on the fastball. Frankly, it desn't matter who you are and what your fastball is, if MLB hitters know it's coming, you're horsefeathered 2. He leaves it mid-mid too often early in the count. He's desperately trying to get to his deathball. But he won't throw the deathball behind to hitters because he wants to induce chase with that pitch. When ahead, hitters can spit on it more easily. It's a command/control issue. The pitch on the surface is not bad. It's everything around it.
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Ben Brown has great stuff, but he's a classic "command vs control" issue. Even tonight, his walk rate is solid. He hasn't walked anyone. But I fully believe he cannot command pitches in the strike zone well. He can "get 'em in" but he misses in too often. Specifically, IMO, he gets caught "stealing strikes". As a two-pitch guy, he uses his fastball almost exclusively behind in the count and his curveball a ton when ahead. He can deceive hitters with the two pitches, he throws the fastball up and the deathball breaks down; there's a tunnel there. So when he's ahead in the count, he creates natural confusion. But once you know he's basically only throwing the fastball, he becomes an easy solve. Early in the count, he'll try to sneak the fastball in to get ahead. He *needs* a third pitch. He has not developed one.
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I call Carl Weathers.
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He fixed his front foot. He can clear his front shoulder without diving into it. He has *pulled* two home runs. Go back and watch the Twins series if you really are a sicko. He pulled a few swings hard but all were too early. He had to be early to clear his front side because he was so closed off. His foot is neutral now. He can clear his shoulder on time.
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Been trying to tell ya'll...
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He does.
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The upgrade at 3b is likely not as major of an upgrade as people expect it will be. ZiPS projects it as less than half a win. I wouldn't do it for both, either. You can buy Kelly + another 3b for less than Ben Brown.
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LHP on the mound. Cubs have given some guys days off here. Suspect they want to rest players more moving forward.
