Jason Ross

Top line numbers hide a lot of the good. His location has been terrible but all the stuff is there. Pitch shape and velocity is fine but he hasnt pitched for a while and he seems to be struggling with mechanics. Over the last month his arm slot is almost what it was pre-injury, its been a bit shallow. FanGraphs as well did an article showing his location+ was steadily improving month-by-month as well. I know people are scared of the ERA, but I don't think he's immutable; and I think in the event the Cubs acquired him, they have a very defined and strong belief that the change is quick. It's an appeal to authority, but the Cubs kind of get thr benefit of the doubt here; they have been scrutinized (by myself!) over and over for signings like Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea and others, and they usually get it right. Outside of Ryan and Gore, he might be the guy capable of giving you the best playoff stuff on the market. Cease is probably there too, but he has had his own wonky season to a degree and how available he is...hard to tell.

Yep! And I know the White Sox offense has been good over the last handful of games, but this is still the perfect time for a BP game. They're still a pretty bad, no good team. Help is coming. Just...probably closer to midweek.

Unless a trade is completed tonight for a pitcher who hasnt pitched in the last 2 days or so, it would be incredibly difficult for a player to be able to make it to travel to Chicago and be ready to start.

I doubt the Cubs are trading Horton for anyone. And Jameson Taillon would be easily moved. Maybe some cash will be eaten, but at one year remaining a team will take him on.

Keith Law loves an argument. I'm convinced he takes fanbse engagement in arguments into account when he lists prospects and looks for a fight by refusing to change his opinion. Which isn't to entirely devalue him, he is a smart guy, just one with lots of caveats.

I don't want to suggest he is better than Ryan or Gore, but their availability is at best "questionable" and what their trade demands are are equally unknown. I would rather have both of those than Alcantara, myself. As it pertains to Taj Bradley, Zumach has said Zombro isn't a fan, so I don't think that will happen. If you want a reclamation project, Zombro is going to be the guy they default to in many ways there. But beyond that, as you have noted, the underlying things on Alcantara are much than top-line ERA and we are both smart enough to understand what that means. The point isnt that Sandy is my top target, but that I have seen on those own board a reluctance to trade anything of even the smallest value for Alcantara, and that is jumping the shark. Beyond the Ryan and Gore names, there probably isn't another SP that has the upside even in 2025 that Alcantara has if you believe you have an understanding of the changes necessary. I think his value is much higher than people realize and I think he's a better bet than people realize. It's finding the middle ground. I wouldn't trade Wiggins and Rojas for him, but the value of Owen Caissie may be much closer to the value of Alcantara than we realize, both internally with the Cubs and externally league wide.

I don't know if the fixes are as extensive as people think. His location+, per FG has been on a steady rise all season. He induced 12 swings and misses last night against San Diego and hit 99mph while averaging 98mph. His arm angle is also getting a bit higher, he is now sitting at a 33-degree arm angle in July, up from 31. His prior arm slots sat around 34 degrees. In April and May the issues seemed far worse. Today, it feels like we are getting closer and closer to ol' Sandy. He may never recapture a full Cy Young status, but I do think Lance has a point with a short sighted aspect of Alcantara. I would still pair him with a Morton/Soroka type as well to hedge bets a little, but I think some have jumped the shark on Alcantara.

I usually like Lance. And I like this post from him a bunch. Both on Wiggins but also that Sandy Alcantara is likely a better trade target than fans make him out to be.

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images I've written fairly extensively about Matt Shaw and his mechanical changes over the course of the season, highlighting all of the little changes along the way. Shaw has changed his leg kick, his hands, how close he stands to the plate—there have been a lot! Yet, as we entered into the All-Star break, his wRC+ hovered in the low 60s. There were signs that part of this was bad luck. FanGraphs and ZiPS had him as one of the most unlucky hitters in the game, and his exit velocities were trending up. Yet, it just wasn't happening for the youngster in the "results" column. Part of this is just dumb luck, sure. Baseball is full of luck. But, I don't think it's all luck, and the reality is that some of this was something real and new, done by Shaw. I like expected data a lot, but there is a little flaw that expected data (such as expected batting average, or xBA) can hide: not all balls in play are created equally. If you hit a ball to your pull side, you are more likely to have that ball land for a hit than by going the other way. Expected data will treat two hits, one pulled and one opposite field, the same, as long as the exit velocity and launch angle are the same. Therein lies the issue. Shaw was not pulling the ball well, with under 33% of his hits going to the pull side. So sometimes, Shaw was getting the benefit of the doubt from expected data, even though he probably shouldn't have. Hitters such as Isaac Parades and Cody Bellinger have made careers on pulling the baseball with relatively weak exit velocity, because they understand this aspect of the game very well. So why couldn't Shaw do this—just pull the damn ball? Well, in part, his swing was to blame. One of the hallmarks of Shaw's setup has been a closed, toe-in stance. If you go back to my most recent article and examine each iteration of his swing, the one constant was his closed nature. Starting closed and twisted in the way Shaw does has helped him go the other way with pitches on the outer third of the plate. Staying closed is a great way to help someone get to the furthest reaches of the plate. Shaw is not someone with long levers to begin with; he's what we could deem a "short king", standing just 5-foot-10. Being on the shorter side, this setup likely was to help Shaw reach those outer-edge pitches—essentially, cheating that way by starting in a position designed to get to those pitches. There is one problem, though: when you cheat one way, you get beat another. Note Shaw's spray chart on the 2025 season, and specifically, the blue (balls in the air). When he elevates, he almost never hits the ball to the pull side. His mechanics were geared to hit the ball in the air the other way; being closed off makes it much harder to clear your front side. In other words, when Shaw swings, he has to fight his own body. By being closed, he has to find a way to open up, and that is not easy. If you threw the ball inside to him, all he could do was stay closed off and dive into the swing. Go back to the chart and instead of looking at the blue flyballs, pay special attention to the green ground balls: almost exclusively pulled. If you threw the ball inside, all Shaw could really do was dive down and over the top of these pitches. Shaw's heat map shows just how little he could do on anything inside. In the three games leading up to the break, the Cubs (smartly) sat Shaw, giving him just a single pinch-hit look. I won't fault anyone who may have come to the conclusion that the cause of his absence from the lineup had to do with the Cubs souring on his rookie campaign, but I thought at the time it was something else. They wanted to work with Shaw on further mechanical development. If the Cubs were giving up on Shaw, he'd have been returned to Iowa, but he wasn't. By taking three days off (plus the following four days of the break), the Cubs could essentially give the rookie seven long days of work without the prying eyes of fans to feel comfortable. This wasn't the first time the Cubs had given the kid a breather before showing a new tweak; he did this right before a series in mid-June against the Brewers. It was time for more evolution. This brings us to Friday, July 18, as the Cubs hosted the red-hot Red Sox at Wrigley Field. Shaw was back at third, hitting in the ninth spot in the lineup. You may have missed it, because it was subtle, but there was a change; Shaw was no longer coiled and closed. Instead, his front foot was slightly open, There wasn't much time to debate if it worked or not, as the hitter wasted no time getting to show off his swing, immediately ripping a 98-mph fly ball to CF (xBA of .520) on the first pitch he saw. It was an out, but it looked good. The third baseman would finish the day 1-3, singling on a pitch up the middle (another 97-mph line drive, hard hit), and lining out to third base. The proof of concept was paying off right away, and you could tell a weight had been lifted from the young player when he hit that ball back through the box. Not only were his mechanics better, but he was mentally relaxed for the first time in a long while. The Cubs wouldn't need to wait long for the breakout to continue. Shaw pinch-hit Saturday, after being left out of the starting lineup against Bryan Bello and his huge platoon splits. Once again, Shaw remained aggressive, as left-handed reliever Chris Murphy left a 1-1 splitter hanging in the middle of the zone, the rookie jumped on it, but something was different with this swing. Whereas, two weeks ago, Shaw may have spun off the ball too early (trying to clear his front side) or would have dove into the pitch resulting in a weak ground out to the Royals' shortstop, this time he was able to turn on the pitch and drive the ball out to left field, catching the Wrigley Field wind for his first home run at home on the season. It was truly a beautiful sight. Nnk5bnZfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X1VBVllYVklOQjFRQVdsSldWUUFIQjFOUUFGa0JWUU1BQVZZQlV3VUJWQU1EQndNRQ==.mp4 The FOX feed in this video isn't the best to highlight the changes, but thankfully, Shaw wasn't done flashing power. It took just two days for him to pull a second home run off of a left-handed hurler, this time the Royals' Noah Cameron. Cameron, in a 2-1 count, left a changeup inside. This is just objectively a bad location for that pitch; you don't want to leave that inside, you want it away from a right-handed hitter. You can see Salvador Perez expecting it on the outside corner. Shaw, however, turns on it and drives it in the air. Pay attention to his front foot pre-swing. and how Shaw is able to easily clear his front side. It's exactly what you should do to that mistake pitch. All of the tweaks prior to this one are still there. He is still closer to the plate, his hands are still up, his leg kick is still much more muted. But now, he's able to pull the ball. This last tweak is small, just inches, but in a game of inches, those matter. Shaw is clearing his own body now. I wouldn't expect his spray chart to remain so opposite-field heavy. He still can go the other way with authority; he hit a ball over 100 mph to the right side in the plate appearance directly after his home run against Boston, and hit a third home run, a 99.8-mph shot to center field, on Wednesday. But for Shaw, it's important to incorporate his pull side. That is what will take him from a hitter whom expected data likes, to someone who gets actual, real-world hits. Let's take one more trip back in history, back to May's late-spring tilt against the Cincinnati Reds. Shaw is facing another left-handed pitcher, this time, the Reds' Nick Lodolo, The Reds starterhas Shaw in an 0-1 count, in a tie game in the fifth inning. Much like Noah Cameron, Lodolo throws an inside changeup. Admittedly, it's slightly lower than Cameron's offering, and thus, it isn't nearly as bad of a pitch (remember, inches matter). Lodolo is also a pretty good pitcher! Regardless, I think this highlights the differences; Shaw can't get to it. He tops it weakly back to the mound, and it's a harmless out. He couldn't pull the ball. He couldn't get to it. NXkyNDFfWGw0TUFRPT1fVlFKVVZnY0FCd29BRDFJR1V3QUhBQUJYQUZnRkFWUUFWbHhYQkZCV0FWSUFBVllD.mp4 The Shaw in the video above likely doesn't do the damage that post-All-Star-break Shaw has been doing. The guy in the last video, even if he got the same poor change Cameron offered up, is unlikely to do any damage on that pitch. We probably don't have video of a majestic, high fly ball to the left field bleachers. Instead, it probably looks a lot like that weak topper he hit against Lodolo; just another weak, futile out. The six games after the break have been a little up and down for the Cubs as a whole. They took a series against a surging Boston team, and dropped one to a mediocre Royals team. The Brewers have rushed by them. But it's easily the best six-game stretch Shaw has had with the Cubs. With nine hits in those six games, and three of them going over the Wrigley Field walls, things seem to be clicking for the maligned rookie. I've been trying to warn people that I thought a breakout was coming, but now I'm begging you to believe me; I think we're there. I think this is finally it. He's putting it all together; each of those little tweaks have made him a much better hitter. I don't expect him to hit three home runs every six games moving forward, but I do think that Shaw is showing people what his skillet is truly about. He can use his speed to beat out infield hits, he can bunt for singles and he can flash more power than his body would make you believe he has. Through his struggles, the Cubs have stuck with him, and he's starting to pay off that patience. The Cubs have stuck by their young players, and have seen Pete Crow-Armstrong blossom into a star. Miguel Amaya has turned into a capable MLB catcher, and now Shaw is starting to look like the next breakout youngster. While there is still a long season to go, if the Cubs believe this is the Matt Shaw breakout, it would help them navigate the deadline next week and cut down on their needs. What do you think of Matt Shaw's recent games? Do you think this is the breakout? Have you noticed these changes? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article

Owen Caissie Caissie's whiff reduction has been going on long enough that there is a real reason to believe he's achieved progress. Defensively he's continued to be a corner OF'er. I believe his can (eventually) keep his K% in line enough to get to his powerJefferson Rojas Likely the Cubs #1 prospect post TDL, the only thing keeping him at #2 for me is that he has yet to be promoted and Caissie's progress, neither are his faultJaxon Wiggins Progress with command and control have vaulted Wiggins up boards. If he can just continue to work on the breaking stuff there is a potential #2 or better SP hereMoises Ballesteros Defensive questions will always haunt Ballesteros until someone plays him at the MLB level behind the plate. With those still there, this feels like a cautious home for the floor.Kevin Alcantara Turning it on recently, his season hasn't been dreadful, but his overall data on not-fastballs can't be overcome with a few hot weeks. Continued progress there is needed but not impossible. Still unicorn defensively.Jonathon Long Giving the nod to Long over Conrad because of proximity to the MLB and the slight chance he can moonlight at 3b. Batted ball data continues to be great, but 1b/DH defensive profile limits upside.Ethan Conrad Really like this pick in the draft. Can stick at CF, bat profiles enough to be good in the corners. Get healthy and see you in 2026.Cristian Hernandez Hernandez has settled into being a nice prospect but one who only flashes the upside. Hopefully as he grows into the body the power can follow.Brandon Birdsell Injuries have sucked the life out of the year, but I still like him as a #4 if he can get right.James Triantos He's fallen due to concerns with his batted ball data. Think there's an MLB role for him, but it's likely as a nice compliment at four or five positions than ever being the guy at one.Pedro Ramirez Peaks and valleys for the infielder. When he's going well and can show power, you can dream on him being a starter, and other times, the power limits him enough to where you wonder if he's more than a bench bat.Will Sanders Kitchen sink SP who is in Triple-A. I think he reminds me of Colin Rea (not in a bad way). He will make an MLB start at some point with a chance to stick as a back-end type. Christian Franklin Good MLB 4th OF'ers have value and Franklin has that. Wouldn't be surprised to see him in a trade to an OF needy team, but could fill a roll in Chicago, too, if Alcantara is moved. Ryan Gallagher Thing holding him back is comp level. 2025 has gone as well as it could for him, but with promotion freeze you can't quite say for sure he's not just another Sam Armstrong-type pop-up. I think he's better than that, but I have to see it to confirm. Could rise 4-5 spots if he proves it.Josiah Hartshorn My favorite pick from the draft, I really like the upside here. Personality and mentality coupled with upside. Juan Cabada Dude is crushing the DSL and has big upside. Gave him a bump. Keep it up.Cole Mathis What a bummer year. I'll give him the bump over Kepley simply because I think he was a 2nd round pick in a better draft, and I'm not sure what's real and what's injury. By the end of the year I might flip them.Kane Kepley If he hits 10+ home runs at the MLB level he's much higher than this, but his Cape performance showed he has some to go in power dept. Defense, speed, and bat to ball skills make him a very likely (in prospect world) to make an MLB roster but his upside is hard to see. I could look real dumb for having him this low if he turns into a Steve Kwan-lite.Eli Lovich Classic tweener of too good for ACL, too underdeveloped physically for Myrtle. Upside play, get in the gym and add some to the frame.Ronny Cruz Copy and past from above on Lovich. Swing improvements are noticeable. Post-draft, pre-TDL system is fun right now, but likely to lose anywhere between three and six from this list by the 31st depending on who the Cubs acquire. I suspect they'll get at least one controlled player which will sap the majority from this list. When that happens, expect to see names like Juan Tomas, Nazier Mule, Ivan Brethowr, Carter Trice, Alex Lumpuoy, and Kaleb Wing start to sneak themselves into spots vacated.

Owen Caissie Caissie's whiff reduction has been going on long enough that there is a real reason to believe he's achieved progress. Defensively he's continued to be a corner OF'er. I believe his can (eventually) keep his K% in line enough to get to his powerJefferson Rojas Likely the Cubs #1 prospect post TDL, the only thing keeping him at #2 for me is that he has yet to be promoted and Caissie's progress, neither are his faultJaxon Wiggins Progress with command and control have vaulted Wiggins up boards. If he can just continue to work on the breaking stuff there is a potential #2 or better SP hereMoises Ballesteros Defensive questions will always haunt Ballesteros until someone plays him at the MLB level behind the plate. With those still there, this feels like a cautious home for the floor.Kevin Alcantara Turning it on recently, his season hasn't been dreadful, but his overall data on not-fastballs can't be overcome with a few hot weeks. Continued progress there is needed but not impossible. Still unicorn defensively.Jonathon Long Giving the nod to Long over Conrad because of proximity to the MLB and the slight chance he can moonlight at 3b. Batted ball data continues to be great, but 1b/DH defensive profile limits upside.Ethan Conrad Really like this pick in the draft. Can stick at CF, bat profiles enough to be good in the corners. Get healthy and see you in 2026.Cristian Hernandez Hernandez has settled into being a nice prospect but one who only flashes the upside. Hopefully as he grows into the body the power can follow.Brandon Birdsell Injuries have sucked the life out of the year, but I still like him as a #4 if he can get right.James Triantos He's fallen due to concerns with his batted ball data. Think there's an MLB role for him, but it's likely as a nice compliment at four or five positions than ever being the guy at one.Pedro Ramirez Peaks and valleys for the infielder. When he's going well and can show power, you can dream on him being a starter, and other times, the power limits him enough to where you wonder if he's more than a bench bat.Will Sanders Kitchen sink SP who is in Triple-A. I think he reminds me of Colin Rea (not in a bad way). He will make an MLB start at some point with a chance to stick as a back-end type. Christian Franklin Good MLB 4th OF'ers have value and Franklin has that. Wouldn't be surprised to see him in a trade to an OF needy team, but could fill a roll in Chicago, too, if Alcantara is moved. Ryan Gallagher Thing holding him back is comp level. 2025 has gone as well as it could for him, but with promotion freeze you can't quite say for sure he's not just another Sam Armstrong-type pop-up. I think he's better than that, but I have to see it to confirm. Could rise 4-5 spots if he proves it.Josiah Hartshorn My favorite pick from the draft, I really like the upside here. Personality and mentality coupled with upside. Juan Cabada Dude is crushing the DSL and has big upside. Gave him a bump. Keep it up.Cole Mathis What a bummer year. I'll give him the bump over Kepley simply because I think he was a 2nd round pick in a better draft, and I'm not sure what's real and what's injury. By the end of the year I might flip them.Kane Kepley If he hits 10+ home runs at the MLB level he's much higher than this, but his Cape performance showed he has some to go in power dept. Defense, speed, and bat to ball skills make him a very likely (in prospect world) to make an MLB roster but his upside is hard to see. I could look real dumb for having him this low if he turns into a Steve Kwan-lite.Eli Lovich Classic tweener of too good for ACL, too underdeveloped physically for Myrtle. Upside play, get in the gym and add some to the frame.Ronny Cruz Copy and past from above on Lovich. Swing improvements are noticeable. Post-draft, pre-TDL system is fun right now, but likely to lose anywhere between three and six from this list by the 31st depending on who the Cubs acquire. I suspect they'll get at least one controlled player which will sap the majority from this list. When that happens, expect to see names like Juan Tomas, Nazier Mule, Ivan Brethowr, Carter Trice, Alex Lumpuoy, and Kaleb Wing start to sneak themselves into spots vacated.

No Tucker today. Foul ball last night. Will be back Friday.

It may be true. But I think we have to accept this; if it takes Caissie, it probably couldn't be done for less and it's likely that the Cubs feel comfortable that they can take all of the stuff and movement that Sandy has and help him relatively quickly get back to a dominant arm.

The Cubs have lots of options in the OF. They can slide Suzuki, they can play Ballesteros at DH (the player the Cubs thought this spring was more ready for DH duties)... Caissie is a cool prospect. I really like him. But he represents likely the best case for the Cubs to acquire solid SP. It likely wont be for a Gore. In fact, based on underlying data, I am not entirely certain the value of Caissie and Alcantara are not much closer than we realize. If the Cubs did swing that trade I expect two things; 1. The Cubs believe Alcantara is very fixable. The stuff is there 2. This board will go nuts But I also don't think in that case it would be necessarily bad or a failure on Jed misreading the market as many will say.

I understand Caissie is really having a great two months, but fair reminder that three moths ago these same sentiments were being said about Moises Baesteros by many on here, that he was essentially untouchable, and think about how the feeling has probably shifted some. I really like Caissie, but there is a reason he hasnt rise above top-40 status. He is a good prospect who is having a great run, but him being traded for less than a pure-Ace is the likely outcome (and fair value). As it stands, I think there will be a lot of posters who will be upset over the trade Caissie is used in. But I don't think that will be a failing on Jed Hoyer's part.

Ive known you for a while, my friend. The Cubs have the same amount of wins as the Los Angeles Dodgers and it is beyond the ASB and half way point. I understand it can be frustrating how the Brewers are surging, but you are more logical than this take. The Cubs won't just be given the division but this is an emotional reaction and not a logical one.

I think we are well beyond the Theo era ramifications. But I do think the Cubs have to operate on more of a budget than needed and it does create a situation where they need to be crafty at times. Hopefully that as the Cubs have more and more prospects (and thus cheap contracts) that they can spend more of the budget they do have on upper level players. The Matt Shaws, Pete Crow-Armstrongs and the like will be important to allow that. Cheap, young starters are worth their weight in gold.

A great observation as well! Its much more likely a Will Sanders will make an MLB start than, say, JP Wheat. Wheat throws 100mph and it's super cool but the distance he has to go to be an MLB starter and Will Sanders is huge. If everything breaks right, Wheat will be a better pitcher but Sanders had a shorter distance to travel from 5th round SEC pitcher than Wheat as a prep arm.

I wouldn't agree with that. The Cubs draft plenty of upside arms. Cade Horton, Jaxon Wiggins, Jackson Ferris were drafted in the top two rounds in the last three years. They have also draft upside prep arms like JP Wheat and Naz Mule. They do target largely college bats in the top-2 rounds but arms are volatile and it isnt like the Cubs arent drafting college bats well when they do. They are largely praised, have almost all had success. Pitchers take a good amount of time, can randomly miss 1.5 years with surgery and stuff at young ate generally comes with a red flag of command issues. The Cubs have prioritized strike throwing recently. Sure. But their goal pitching wise has been quality arms regardless of how they do it. And despite the lack of "power" at times, they have generally succeeded. Shota throws 90 and gets good wiff. Steele throws low 90s and strikes out plenty. Pitching is an issue this year but that is in large part due to injuries. They lost Steele immediately, lost Shota a month, lost Taillon...its been an uphill battle. I'll admit I always thought the staff was one short and we are seeing that now.

Appreciate the kind words! I will add this; the Cubs have too many players for too few positions. They will *have* to trade some. Players are going to begin to run out of option years, players will also lose value sitting in Iowa. It is cool to have backup plans, but prospects are useful in two ways; they can help your team directly through callups or can help your team in asset acquisition. I wouldn't suggest the Cubs trade 'em all, but trading some is necessary. Pick your favorite OF, Alcantara or Caissie. Pick your favorite 1b/DH in Ballesteros or Long. So they should be looking to make some trades regardless.

Part of our pitching is predicated on throwing so much spaghetti on the wall that some still stick, sure. But within that is also knowing when to pull the plug and that the clock has struck midnight. Chris Flexen has been playing with fire. He has gotten lucky to maintain run prevention. He has been far better at that for longer than I expected. But it is also probably midnight and Flexen is likely to turn back into a pumpkin. I appreciate what he gave us, but it doesnt make him a strong starting option.

The Rangers won a WS with Nathan Eovaldi as their best SP. The idea you *need* an ace is not proven by recent data. The Dodgers won with Yamamoto, Walker Buehler and multiple BP games. They had one good SP. A great offense! But their staff, on paper, isn't what won it.

Really good pitchers can have a bad 5-6 starts. They are still really good. Just like sucky pitchers can have good runs for 36 innings! Chris Flexen probably sucks. But he way overperformed for the Cubs and I am thankful for that. I dont want to sound ungrateful, but he is likely as bad of an option to start a game as Brown is.