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Jason Ross

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Everything posted by Jason Ross

  1. Jason Ross
    Kyle Tucker - 142 wRC+ Cody Bellinger - 121 wRC+ Kyle Tucker - 4.3 fWAR Cody Bellinger - 3.2 fWAR Kyle Tucker has been 20% better offensively and been worth a full win more. The only reason it is this close is because Kyle Tucker has gone cold for a bit. In all of his full seasons, Kyle Tucker averages a 142 wRC+. which is what he's done this year. Cody Bellinger hasn't had a 142 wRC+ season since 2019, and he did it one time. Since his resurgence he has had a 122 wRC+, so these are pretty standard numbers. It should also be noted that Kyle Tucker has had bad batted ball luck. Bellinger has outhit his xData. This means moving forward we should expect Tucker to be better than he's been and Bellinger to be worse. Kyle Tucker wOBA vs xwOBA - .370 vs .390 Cody Bellinger wOBA vs xwOBA - .348 vs ,331 If Tucker had a .390 wOBA like his xwOBA suggests, he would be the 7th best hitter in baseball tied with Cal Raleigh. As is he is tied for 14th. Cody Bellinger is 48th, however if he had his xwOBA, he would be the 78th best hitter in baseball. Pay. Kyle. Tucker. It is not close between Cody Bellinger and Kyle Tucker. One of these players is an elite baseball player who has had bad variance and the other is a fine baseball player who has had good variance.
  2. Jason Ross
    Cam Smith - 95 wRC+ Matt Shaw - 91 wRC+ Just leaving this here.
  3. Jason Ross
    It wasnt as crazy, but I was a Dodgers/Phillies game back in 2002 that felt similar. Final score was 10-8. Both teams had multiple 3+ run innings throughout the game. Was a really fun affair, especially for someone attending who was neither a Phillies or a Dodgers fan.
  4. Jason Ross
    Horton has barely pitched 250 innings combined with his senior year through today. He's far short of 150 IP in any single season.
  5. Jason Ross
    Palencia only has 2 innings in August and four since July 22nd. There's rest and rust. Cubs probably just wanted to get him an inning,
  6. Jason Ross
    His fastball placement and the splitting of the four-seam with cut (now thrown to LHH) and the sinker (thrown to RHH) feels like it was such an important catalyst for this. Once he can spot up the slider a little more, he's got legitimate top-rotation stuff. Very exciting.
  7. Jason Ross
    No hitters are always cool.
  8. Jason Ross
    Horton looks awesome so far today. Three really strong innings.
  9. Jason Ross
    Welcome! Justin Turner has a 125 wRC+ against LHP. Abbott is LHP. This is not nearly as problematic as you are suggesting as league RHH are hitting 99 wRC+ against LHP. Willi Castro has 107 wRC+ and has been worth 6.5 fWAR through his last 2 and 2/3rds season. He's been an above average starting player. Him playing every is not problematic either. He's also very good against LHP, with a 130 wRC+.
  10. Jason Ross
    Stephan was ranked #80 on fangraphs page and was getting back end top-100 (or honorable mention) love on most industry rankings. He was most comparable to Jaxon Wiggins who has been getting similarly treated, either sneaking on to top-100's at the bottom or being among the HM list. Maybe one team is higher on Wiggins, another on Stephan, but using industry rankings, Wiggins and Stephan were very similarly viewed on the aggregate. It's very fair to say that Bieber would have cost a prospect in a similar vein to Wiggins based on that.
  11. Jason Ross
    To go back to the 83-win-Cardinals World Series run, the Cards lost 10 of their last 12. I am sure Cardinal fans were not optimistic of winning much that year. Fan optimism only goes so far - hell, the general vibe around here has been close to jumping off of a ledge and the Cubs haven't been an entire dumpster fire, at least not as much as you'd probably assume based on the reactions. Fans are fickle and optimism only reflects recency. It's easy to be down in the dumps about the roster right now. The bullpen is giving up a lot of home runs, the Cubs didn't get an exciting starting pitcher at the deadline, and the offense is scuffling. But all of these things are at their low point and it's unlikely that they will remain this low. Even if you're not super high on the pitching, I think we know the BP isn't going to serve up this many homeruns. It'll probably balance a little. Things will be better. Maybe it'll be today.
  12. Jason Ross
    Just to get Elly who's much, much less potent against LHP (79 wRC) than RHP (149 wRC+)
  13. Jason Ross
    I looked into some of the statcast. My best guess, just peeking at data is that he's just fighting himself right now. All of his approach stuff is fine, so he's not chasing, expanding, or whatever. His angle of attack is shallow, and he's hitting things to centerfield over pulling it. I think he's second guessing himself on good pitches right now. Slow to react.
  14. Jason Ross
    Yeah, it was a bit of an odd move. Especially with how Parades isn't going to be dead forever, nor is Correa gone any time soon. I think it says how they view his defense on the overall. Though, he is a +9 DRS and +3 OAA, so he's been a positive defender in RF.
  15. Jason Ross
    Smith has been something awful since the Cubs series. 54 wRC+ since then. K% over 30%. On the year his wRC+ is down to 98 where as Shaw is now at 84.
  16. Jason Ross
    The Prince Who Was Promised ties the game.
  17. Jason Ross
  18. Jason Ross
    If there's one positive of the innings in which the Cubs hit - Gives me a chance to do all of the housework I need to catch up on before my partner gets home tomorrow and sees the state of squaller I have been living in for the week she's been gone. Not like I'm missing much else.
  19. Jason Ross
    I wasn't talking about the White Sox game in particular. His fastball placement has been terrible all season. But he's rocking 6 whiffs on the pitch today and generally getting it up. He's been more consistent with how he's thrown that pitch and that's such an important pitch for him. He's almost entirely avoided the heart of the plate with it today - this is good to see.
  20. Jason Ross
    Shota Ohtani.
  21. Jason Ross
    Pretty sure I made that hustle double happen. You're welcome.
  22. Jason Ross
    Here's some positivity; Shota seems fixed. So...like...that's cool.
  23. Jason Ross
    We all need some positivity. Also I will delete that post when the Cubs pick up 2 hits and score 0 runs.
  24. Jason Ross
    Made a great play in the OF and got a hit already.
  25. Jason Ross
    Littell is a good pitcher for the Cubs. He's going to throw a lot of strikes and the Cubs will be able to key in on pitches. He gives up some home runs. His only real skills are getting hitters to chase and not walking guys. They might not smash him for 10 today, but he's a good matchup for a team who needs some life.
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