Jason Ross

I'm not worried about reading much into it. Jed Hoyer lives in a world of black and white valuation. This will apply for Tucker and Caissie. It means that I don't think this has much to do with Tucker in and of itself, but at the same time, it also means Jed will draw a line in the sand and likely won't jump it in December.

Yeah, he's a dude. I hope he gets going too. As much as today was kind of a bummer, the Cubs can still make a fun year. I'm hoping that's the case.

I'm sure Adrian Hauser is a nice guy, but frankly. glad that didn't happen at this stage. Let's say it was like a Will Sanders going back the other way. I don't think Hauser really changes the math for the 2025 Cubs at this point and I'd rather just have Sanders, even if I think he's like a Colin Rea or an Adrian Hauser later on in his career.

He doesn't need to do much more. If his season ended today, it would be his second best offensive season per wRC+ ever. He's half a win away from his best season ever. Tucker's been a dude this year. He's basically got to avoid a season ending injury for this to be the best full season of Kyle Tucker ever.

I think every team has their own unique rankings. Think like how BA and BP and FG can range wildly sometimes. Now make it...30 different rankings. I think most people have the same few top prospects in the same area, but once you get to 15-75 you probably start to see a pretty wide difference. Beyond that? I'd gues it's wild west. One man's trash is another's treasure. Good example is Estuary Ruiz. He was a fringe-top-100 type but the A's traded Sean Murphy, almost exclusively, for him. To get that value they basically had to internally see him as a top-25 type. It has not worked out.

Probably between $400m-$500m. His slump is still a good player and he'll probably go bananas for a bit and we'll all forget this.

It probably was unreasonably high. But at some stage, you either go unreasonably high or you're left where the Cubs are today where they're probably still one player short - a place the Cubs have been since probably February. At the same time, how much are prices going to drop on controlled SP in December? The prices were deemed to high by the Cubs last offseason, nothing suggests they'll drop this year. Beyond that, when are Caissie, Long and Ballesteros' ever going to have higher value than now? If they have anything close to even one bad month, even with a drop in price, you probably give back in devalued assets. I think any trade would have probably sucked. It would have failed a BBTV evaluation. But sometimes, that's the only way you get better. I wouldn't argue this way for a rental, but when you control the player for 2+ years still, it's a lot easier to live with a 20% overpay.

I think the Cubs will make an offer to Tucker that is reasonable. As always with Hoyer, we should expect him to go to what he deems reasonable, but the moment it goes beyond that, probably fair to worry if he would become irrational enough to make it happen. I hope he does. I think he's worth it. But with Jed, it's always a question.

I agree with the last sentiment. My guess goes back to the good and the bad of Hoyer - you will probably never get a truly horrendous bad trade from Jed. You'll probably never get the slightly irrationally big trade you need to make to get *your* dude.

Absolutely. Good trades generally hurt a bit, and the Tucker trade hurt a bit in future value. I hope they resign him, however.

I do not believe that is a horrible value trade in any way. I think fans both overvalue what Smith was as a prospect at the time (and even now as an MLB player) and undervalue how expensive Tucker, even at one year, is. That trade is probably bang on how I would value both what was lost, and what was gotten.

I think it's more that Jed is who Jed is? He's very black and white on value. He won't pay a penny over what he feels is fair. And that means we will be very unlikely to lose a trade in a horrible fashion but it's very unlikely that the team will ever make a big move come the deadline. Jed would rather not make a move than budge on his value, for good or bad.

I just wrote a big article on this, kind of really fleshing out my ideas, and I do think Jed has a small point here - he's right, not one of those guys was moved. At the same time, the Cubs were in a unique position to likely bully one team into moving one of this players. Would the cost have been a lot? Sure thing. Would it have failed a BBTV mode? I bet you it would have. But sometimes you pay a little bit over a price to ensure youre the team with the thing, and the Cubs didn't do that. I'll concede that maybe every team with a controllable SP had such astronomical prices that it wouldn't have ever been feasible, but with the amount out there...I feel like they probably could have gotten one if we were willing to pay a price above what felt rational (that remained short of astronomical).

Listen folks, I drive down the road to get Big Kahuna Burger (yes, it's real, and yes it's a tasty burger) because it's one light away from my house too. But damnit, I ordered a pizza the other night and I paid that delivery fee. Jed needs to be more like me. (that said he did trade for Soroka...)

So my thoughts, just to get them on paper (or internet paper) on the deadline: In a vacuum, I really have no issues with any trade the Cubs made. You can quibble on a prospect here or there, but the highest-ranked prospect traded profiles like a backup, and your best upside is a kid who isn't even-18, so he'll almost assuredly fizzle out. The Cubs got a perfect bench bat in Castro, an undervalued SP in Soroka, and two arms to help the bullpen. The Cubs are unquestionably better than when we last saw them. But...I think this is a failure of a deadline from Jed Hoyer. His best asset as a leader is that he holds strong to his valuations of players. I love that about him. It's why I liked every trade above; the Cubs didn't get fleeced once - they really don't get fleeced. Maybe you don't love a trade but they never get fleeced. But it's that same pigheaded valuation that means you never get irrational for needs. Jed Hoyer is a fine VP of Baseball Ops. He put together this roster, and the Cubs look like a team who can make the playoffs. They're better than yesterday. But sometimes you need to pay 15% more than you should just to have it and Jed's undying loyalty to the value means that while he won't get fleeced, he won't go big. One of our other writers, put it best in our slack today. "Jed always picks up his pizza, he never orders delivery" and I think that's the best analogy I've ever heard for Hoyer. He will never pay the delivery fee, he'll never pay for a tip if he can just drive seven minutes down the road and get it from Dominoes. I don't think he needs to Door Dash McDonalds every night like AJ Preller probably would, but sometime, he needs to treat himself.

There is nothing more coming. They're done.

I wrote a whole ass article on him! And I'm not happy.

Yeah. This is unacceptable.

Just because we haven't heard doesn't mean they haven't told the league.

But the Yankees could give them Spencer Jones for Skenes. Heyman told me.

I'm 100% okay with the Castro trade. Armstrong was Gallagher a year ago. Gallagher is a popup. I'm fine.

James Triantos scratched. He's probably headed to Twins

Haha, not this time...I don't have the names but do think maybe it's steeper than people will expect.

Don't get your hopes up it's free....

Because he's not very good any more.